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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    ECM still going broadly for the larger deeper low on this run at 120hrs with warmer 850hpa temps moving into the SW. Not much of anything on Tuesday in terms of pressure drops for any possible channel/France low but hard to know if any front s do make it is here.

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
    16 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    Is the ecm rolling yet guys?

    Yep we're up to 120hrs

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    144hrs and the cold air is blasted totally out of the country. However the core was quite cold still at 120hrs so we will have to wait and see what the raw data looks lovely like.

    Probably one of the least inspiring of the options on the table but at least with this just about anything is possible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    HAHAHAHA GFS gives me a 24 hours snow storm..

    naughty GFS!!

    All seriousness this mornings runs are BIG upgrades - there is going to be some happy campers in the next few hours!!

    KaBOOM Baby.

    gfs-16-168.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea

    ECM always seems to go against cold... I think it's just a negative nancy and that we should all look to ICON to guide us!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    It's just Abit Meh compared to some of the over night runs. I'd bet it's still snowy for the north...but a boring run/not snowy at all for the south compared to what some of the models are showing!

    Just one option out of many still.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    ECM always seems to go against cold... I think it's just a negative nancy and that we should all look to ICON to guide us!!

    Yes but it’s often correct when it does. 8 times out of 10 thr model showing the least cold option seems to be correct.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    It's just Abit Meh compared to some of the over night runs. I'd bet it's still snowy for the north...but a boring run/not snowy at all for the south compared to what some of the models are showing!

    Given that the UKMO looks good, the GFS PARA and ICON are stunning and the gfs 18z looked good, wouldn't you say the ECM is somewhat out on its own? We seem to have cross model agreement on a cold/snowy setup APART from the ecm?

     

    Personally not buying the negativity the ECM seems to be sending our way!

    Edited by Jackski4
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    Given that the UKMO looks good, the GFS PARA and ICON are stunning and the gfs 18z looked good, wouldn't you say the ECM is somewhat out on its own? We seem to have cross model agreement on a cold/snowy setup APART from the ecm?

     

    Personally not buying the negativity the ECM seems to be sending our way!

    Was just about to say the same the ECM looks very on its own...

    Why are people ALWAYS trying to pick the negatives out of things. We got enough negativity in this world! 

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Yes but it’s often correct when it does. 8 times out of 10 thr model showing the least cold option seems to be correct.

    true that?

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    Given that the UKMO looks good, the GFS PARA and ICON are stunning and the gfs 18z looked good, wouldn't you say the ECM is somewhat out on its own? We seem to have cross model agreement on a cold/snowy setup APART from the ecm?

    Personally not buying the negativity the ECM seems to be sending our way!

    All options are for n the table including this, will be luck of the draw. I wonder where this will sit in relation to the ensembles. Have to imagine at the top again?

    Anyway I'd guess the ECM is shocker for the south but better up north but we will see, waiting to get more info as it updates the other parameters 

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

    ECM you have to try and bring down the mood whenever GFS cheers us up....

     

    That's it, I'm not talking to you, well till this evening maybe ☺

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    Just now, Surrey said:

    Was just about to say the same the ECM looks very on its own...

    Why are people ALWAYS trying to pick the negatives out of things. We got enough negativity in this world! 

    see djazzle's  post , if it wasn't true most of us would be snowed in by now instead I have had a lot of drizzle, just stating fact lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Snow line is just North of London west to east 

    Terrible run for us Southerners...nothing on Tuesday then cold rain, not even front edge. Truely the worst case scenario there!!

    Great run for Midlands north, cold holds just long enough. Bham northwards remains as snow.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

    see djazzle's  post , if it wasn't true most of us would be snowed in by now instead I have had a lot of drizzle, just stating fact lol

    Negativity  (aka scepticism and realism). Most have received diddly squat this winter!

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    1 minute ago, kold weather said:

    Snow line is just North of London west to east 

    Terrible run for us Southerners...nothing on Tuesday then cold rain, not even front edge. Truely the worst case scenario there!!

    Great run for Midlands north, cold holds just long enough. Bham northwards remains as snow.

    lol hung up on one run again?

     

    You wont be getting your snow line of yours right until Monday evening earliest.. THATS if it even happens 

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Was just about to say the same the ECM looks very on its own...

    Why are people ALWAYS trying to pick the negatives out of things. We got enough negativity in this world! 

    It just feels like, to me, that we get some really good charts and runs all night, then one ECM comes along and ruins it all and because it's so highly regarded as "the best" people think that it couldn't possibly be wrong.. All the lesser models agree with the ones I listed in my previous post that the outlook remains cold/snowy AND the Met office really have put their cards on the table. I may be making a very bold move but I'm almost tempted to disregard the ECM completely at this point, as other models are clearly seeing something it is not.

     

    Here's to a great 6z gfs!

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    Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight

    Icon looks fantastic for next week. Wasn’t it the flagship for the downgrade of the easterly in the last week or so!? If it was. You have to certainly take it very seriously for the start of trends. 

    Edited by iowpompeylee
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Worth noting the ECM goes down to 956mbs, which is crazy low and about 20mbs lower than most other models.

    Wait for me ensembles but I'd suggest that's way too extreme for this setup and is going to bust far too low...

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    It just feels like, to me, that we get some really good charts and runs all night, then one ECM comes along and ruins it all and because it's so highly regarded as "the best" people think that it couldn't possibly be wrong.. All the lesser models agree with the ones I listed in my previous post that the outlook remains cold/snowy AND the Met office really have put their cards on the table. I may be making a very bold move but I'm almost tempted to disregard the ECM completely at this point, as other models are clearly seeing something it is not.

     

    Here's to a great 6z gfs!

    And thats how someone with a level head and is seeing all the data presented to them makes a decision.

    That said.. There is nothing stopping the ECM being right. But for now, we put it to one side wait the 06z and 12zs today before making any BOLD comments about crap runs.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Detail still to be ironed out reg snow potential next week, And I wouldn't trust any runs hemispherically past day 5 currently.. Nice to see -17c surface temps for the highlands though!

    2040780689_viewimage(14).thumb.png.ead45820735770ac8a1e51eee60e7a75.png

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, Surrey said:

    And thats how someone with a level head and is seeing all the data presented to them makes a decision.

    That said.. There is nothing stopping the ECM being right. But for now, we put it to one side wait the 06z and 12zs today before making any BOLD comments about crap runs.

     

    Yes, don't get me wrong, ECM could make every other model look like a fool and then there would have to be some sort of inquest as to how every other model in the world and the highest regarded weather forecasters (MO) got it wrong! As long as the 6z and the para stays on course in a couple of hours, I really don't think we should even take notice of what the ECM has said this morning. Maybe ECM had too much to drink last night, was Friday after all..

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    In balance the GFSP and the GEM look very similar to the ECM pressure and placement wise, so it's not on its own for weds-thurs at all. 

    GFS ensembles suggests just about anything is possible still...

    ECM ensembles should give a good steer to what I said most likely.

    Regardless great for north, terrible for south, ok for Midlands from the 00z ECM.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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