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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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10 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Explain how? When there is no sign of mild? 4'c is not mild.

Jeez its not rocket science  - you watched 2 different bulletins. The mild quote was on the 9.55 nightly update on bbc news channel and the other was the 10.35 after the main news bulletin on bbc1. End of

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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7 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Half a meter... Not the best, but I guess it'll have to do ?

Unfortunately these charts will change again and again, they depend so much upon where exactly the lows are positioned. All we can do is hope for the best and wait until we start seeing these snowfalls within 72h

I will jinx the Edinbrough snow, having a weekend up there 15th feb. That garauntees no snow, I go away this weekend every year and evey year I miss the snow, montreal, oslo, prague, berlin, scottish highlands, new york, tallin, everyone snowless. They are playing kylie Minogue in the kitchen?

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13 minutes ago, saintkip said:

I will jinx the Edinbrough snow, having a weekend up there 15th feb. That garauntees no snow, I go away this weekend every year and evey year I miss the snow, montreal, oslo, prague, berlin, scottish highlands, new york, tallin, everyone snowless. They are playing kylie Minogue in the kitchen?

I should be so lucky? 

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18z GFSP is ALOT closer to what the tropical forcing would be expecting for that time, especially compared with what the GFS/ECM are trying to do, as singularity has been stating on the other thread at times.

All options firmly on the table. I'd still suggest that the deeper stronger low is more likely, but there has been movement back towards a more even mix. Still, don't be disappointed if the 00z move firmly back towards the larger low solution again. I suspect once the low has began the first processes of formation on Sundsay, we will have a much clearer idea. I did think we were getting there today this afternoon, but clearly the gFS suite and to some extent the ECM has thrown a grenade into that idea!

PS- some of those ensemble members really do look crazy looking at the precip, as said earlier, the more snowy models would probably leave someone jackpotting 12 inches+. Of course, there is a risk the whole lot ends up too suppressed and the low on Tuesday doesn't form, llke the GFS OP, in which case only a small area of higher snow totals likely, indeed verbatim few go above a couple of cms

Edited by kold weather
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6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

18z GFSP is ALOT closer to what the tropical forcing would be expecting for that time, especially compared with what the GFS/ECM are trying to do, as singularity has been stating on the other thread at times.

All options firmly on the table. I'd still suggest that the deeper stronger low is more likely, but there has been movement back towards a more even mix. Still, don't be disappointed if the 00z move firmly back towards the larger low solution again. I suspect once the low has began the first processes of formation on Sundsay, we will have a much clearer idea. I did think we were getting there today this afternoon, but clearly the gFS suite and to some extent the ECM has thrown a grenade into that idea!

 

00z suites..

To diss-figure the current basis!!.

And cean the LPS TO AN- advance-..with southward trajectory!..

And squall-milder inserts out of the mix...and as per-my notion..

Drop and grade..with allowed upper shouts..with a BIG leading edge snow machine.....

We shall but see!!??

Edited by tight isobar
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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

00z suites..

To diss-figure the current basis!!.

And cean the LPS TO AN- advance-..with southward trajectory!..

And squall-milder inserts out of the mix...and as per-my notion..

Drop and grade..with allowed upper shouts..with a BIG leading edge snow machine.....

We shall but see!!??

I have no idea what your on about at times, but mate, I hope your right in everything you say ;) 

At least we've now gotten further than we got than with the failed easterly, at this point it was already game and set with that one.

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15 minutes ago, Nikkib74 said:

I should be so lucky? 

Nah the love song with Jason, its getting cool now, Nina Cherry. Another bottle just popped, reckon she’s gonna struggle taking our daughter to gymnastic tomorrow, onto house classics now, the partys getting started

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17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I have no idea what your on about at times, but mate, I hope your right in everything you say  

At least we've now gotten further than we got than with the failed easterly, at this point it was already game and set with that one.

What you gonna do when your back at work with all this kicking off mate

lol

your commentary may be slower 

 

Edited by snowbob
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The runs will change by the morning again. So much uncertainty. I wouldn't be analysing them too much. Some snow about, but we all know that if a low slides it generally goes further south and in most cases misses us completely. I think it will be Sunday until we are sure about early next week.

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26 minutes ago, kold weather said:

18z GFSP is ALOT closer to what the tropical forcing would be expecting for that time, especially compared with what the GFS/ECM are trying to do, as singularity has been stating on the other thread at times.

All options firmly on the table. I'd still suggest that the deeper stronger low is more likely, but there has been movement back towards a more even mix. Still, don't be disappointed if the 00z move firmly back towards the larger low solution again. I suspect once the low has began the first processes of formation on Sundsay, we will have a much clearer idea. I did think we were getting there today this afternoon, but clearly the gFS suite and to some extent the ECM has thrown a grenade into that idea!

PS- some of those ensemble members really do look crazy looking at the precip, as said earlier, the more snowy models would probably leave someone jackpotting 12 inches+. Of course, there is a risk the whole lot ends up too suppressed and the low on Tuesday doesn't form, llke the GFS OP, in which case only a small area of higher snow totals likely, indeed verbatim few go above a couple of cms

Pert 9?

gens-9-1-114.png  gens-9-2-114.png

OR

 

Maybe you're a Pert 11 kind of guy/gal.

gens-11-1-126.pnggens-11-2-126.png

 

 

Edited by Snowman.
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ICON looks a huge upgrade at 00z..

Prolonging the cold out until early Feb and snow chances esp across the midlands/south..

Would be lovely if UKMO follows that!!

image.thumb.png.25780c8ad6d718b0590acd821b372526.png

Edited by northwestsnow
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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON looks a huge upgrade at 00z..

Prolonging the cold out until early Feb and snow chances esp across the midlands/south..

Would be lovely if UKMO follows that!!

image.thumb.png.25780c8ad6d718b0590acd821b372526.png

Oh yes - and look up to the north east as well!

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17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON looks a huge upgrade at 00z..

Prolonging the cold out until early Feb and snow chances esp across the midlands/south..

Would be lovely if UKMO follows that!!

image.thumb.png.25780c8ad6d718b0590acd821b372526.png

Yes off to a good start this morning but this in extremely complex trough so expecting plenty of variation - all cold variations would be nice.

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If you look at the ICON NH view as well the pressure patterns - they signify a very negative AO - which is driving that weak desire to progress The jet east-

Lots of High potential for the next week

Snow for many....

E1DD407C-23B3-4C9A-992B-FB9E746EB3D2.thumb.png.81f4fccb67bba7dc486c816aa8d55685.png

Edited by Steve Murr
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Looks like the models have done another u-turn. The enthusiasm here now a far cry from yesterday afternoons disappointment!! 

 

Not getting overly excited, but the closer we get with the models looking like this, the less chance they can keep changing. Things currently look very nice indeed.

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