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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    GFS both og and para seem to have much better 850s across the board. Hope so, but sceptical.

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Fv3 goes the other way and deepens the low!!rubbish!!i honestly think theres gona be no difference what so ever between the normal gfs and parallel!!both as bad lol!!

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GFSp is much better. Snow for the south on first low and for the north on second. Everyone’s a winner ! Let’s see what FI brings 

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    666B75C8-E9EA-4FF5-9CAE-1114F38D90F6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke

    A good trend tonight, splendid. On the downside the wife has arrived home with 3 friends, seems they have finished off half a dozen bottles of plonk. Dont think I will tell them I’m on  my weather geek site

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
    1 minute ago, saintkip said:

    A good trend tonight, splendid. On the downside the wife has arrived home with 3 friends, seems they have finished off half a dozen bottles of plonk. Dont think I will tell them I’m on  my weather geek site

    No, possibly not a good idea, my partner is drinking with her sister, she asked me why I’m being anti social and looking at the computer again, I said I’m just looking at models, she slapped me so don’t think that went down very well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
    Just now, Bazray said:

    No, possibly not a good idea, my partner is drinking with her sister, she asked me why I’m being anti social and looking at the computer again, I said I’m just looking at models, she slapped me so don’t think that went down very well.

    Typical! They are allowed their fun.. But us? Oh no?

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
    1 minute ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

    Well, apart from Scotland ?

    I’m sure there will be many changes yet mate don’t worry

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
    1 minute ago, Bazray said:

    No, possibly not a good idea, my partner is drinking with her sister, she asked me why I’m being anti social and looking at the computer again, I said I’m just looking at models, she slapped me so don’t think that went down very well.

    I’d take a slap over the chat coming out of the kitchen, someones gonna start crying soon, I need a top up but ain’t going in there

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    FV3 gets flabby later 168 but that Sib High signal is building.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    4 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

    Well, apart from Scotland ?

    This ones for you ...just the half metre of snow by the end of the week...

    D856548C-D4B7-49B7-85FD-297CF374D40A.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    JMA 18z has that low further north too, very snowy south west coming up on this run. Now I hope that no one ever dares to rubbish the JMA ever again...??

    Only joking, only If it verifies of course.?

    J84-21.gif

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Last post from me tonight, look at the PPN on the GFS ensembles for the middle of next week, potential for a lot of snow there if we get lucky. 

    London, Cardiff, Birmingham.  

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    graphe_ens3-2.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    44 minutes ago, Bazray said:

    No, possibly not a good idea, my partner is drinking with her sister, she asked me why I’m being anti social and looking at the computer again, I said I’m just looking at models, she slapped me so don’t think that went down very well.

    Try being me then..

    She said the kids wanted a pet..

    So i used the excuse i was pet hunting 'constantly'..

    It didnt go down very well when she looked through the history to see page upon page of x hamster!!!????

    In between-meteorlogical sources of course !! ?

    Although in respect of the wonderful mother 2 my 4 adorable children..

    I have payed homage- by embarrassingly.

    Sticking her pic on my prof...

    But why not...bless her!!..??

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    36 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

    Whilst I understand they have to be strict and not hyperbole or scare the public (not like any model is showing anything that way atm)  It still isn't going to be mild basing of latest output.. 18z has 4'c as max on friday next week?

    Think you need to watch it again, NW is correct...

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
    19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    This ones for you ...just the half metre of snow by the end of the week...

    D856548C-D4B7-49B7-85FD-297CF374D40A.png

    Half a meter... Not the best, but I guess it'll have to do ?

    Unfortunately these charts will change again and again, they depend so much upon where exactly the lows are positioned. All we can do is hope for the best and wait until we start seeing these snowfalls within 72h

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    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
    3 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

    Don't like that hole over Edinburgh... I'm right in the middle of it ? 

     

    unlucky you i have 14 but london at 107 they will have to buy the snow blowers?

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    As expected there are some outrageous runs on the 18z GFS ensembles.

    Its also fair to say that any hints of agreement from the 12z suite earlier has been busted wide open tonight again. This is reflected in the ensembles with a few still going way north. However they are less in number. There are also now a few that don't even develop the LP at all, which IMO is too far the other extreme.

    I wouldn't like to be a forecaster for my job this weekend, this is a highly fluid and potential quite problematic set-up, which we don't get too often, in that normally a 200 mile shift in a LP would make the difference between moderate rain, and heavy rain. In this set-up, 200 miles could be the difference between getting no precip, heavy snow all day, snow-rain, heavy rain or nothing again.

    Plus, IF it is going to be a snow event, its probably going to be the highly disruptive type. But we won't really have any real clue until closer to the time.

    Models could just as easily swing bvack north on the 00z suite, so far too early to be celebrating, this is a battle we've won within the larger war which until this evening was being lost (aka Battle of Britain within the context of WW2 at the time).

    PS- also worth noting that providing the LP doesn't blast away the mild air aka ECM, even a flabby deep low could quite easily drag back colder air and with deep pressure you'd likely have plenty of troughing and maybe frontal systems rotating around.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    3 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

    Half a meter... Not the best, but I guess it'll have to do ?

    Unfortunately these charts will change again and again, they depend so much upon where exactly the lows are positioned. All we can do is hope for the best and wait until we start seeing these snowfalls within 72h

    and then within around 12 - 24hrs the meto warnings will kick in if required - into low res and another slider and more dumpings of the white stuff - gfsp elongates the cold spell - rinse repeat

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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