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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Looks ok but it’s still cold rain unfortunately 

    3491797D-D223-433C-BE07-B2C6CF1B356D.png

    94224382-D1CC-46ED-A725-DFF7858E9FBB.png

    Maybe not looking good for snow at that range but subject to change that’s a very good chart because that is going along the lines of the meto talk earlier lows dropping south Maybe picking up more of an easterly flow and increaseing snow risk .?

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    19 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    It’s been mentioned already but the met mentioning the lows going down into the Bay of Biscay might of been one hell off a good call . It was kinda strange them mentioning that in there update . Let’s hope there bang on . 

    The gfs 18z is cold from Sunday until at least the following Sunday. I’m in shock too . Wasn’t exspecting that at all . ???

    Sunday to Sunday 850s below ?

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    Last week of January and first week of February, peak of winter, if we want to get something memorable, now is the ideal time, without any of that drip, drip, drip.:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
    Just now, MagicBat said:

    The BBC have to be super reserved with their weather forecast. It's okay for us with the insight. But the general public go into melt down. They will cancel appointments, flights, etc....

     

    Tuesday is looking good for the South. Just hope their isn't too much warmer air around that low. As it could be a sleet mix for the South....

    Whilst I understand they have to be strict and not hyperbole or scare the public (not like any model is showing anything that way atm)  It still isn't going to be mild basing of latest output.. 18z has 4'c as max on friday next week?

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    Newfoundland low different yet again @78hrs on 18z FV3.

    It's now a dumbell (again).

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    The Control run has the low further south at 156.  Just saying!

    image.thumb.png.e66b1714dbb961b9db0d13d1f310509c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    10 minutes ago, saintkip said:

    Aggresive

    No, just pointing out a post that was 100% incorrect

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    BBC weather forecasts and forecasters are not discussing the models. Try the media thread- it is but 2 clicks away

    edit and if that is beyond anyone then you can click all you like but won’t be able to post.

    Edited by chionomaniac
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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

    The Control run has the low further south at 156.  Just saying!

    image.thumb.png.e66b1714dbb961b9db0d13d1f310509c.png

    Biscay Low a la met office?

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    12 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    @ 288 hours? Really?

     

    This thread sometimes. ?‍♂️

    Just discussing the models... it’s the model discussion thread after all. I was responding to another post about that time frame by saying it looks ok, but it delivers cold rain. Appolagies if that takes the thread away from what you believe it should be about ??‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton
    2 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Control goes south aswell!!big upgrades so far!!fv3 looks like a monkey nut low again around the states!!

    I’ve seen it all today 

    squirrel nuts now monkey nuts ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    it is but 2 clicks away

    Love actually. Wrapping the mistress Christmas present by Rowan Atkinson in Halfords.... Love that bit! 

    Anyway, the Fi starts at 120/96 in small terms but in reality it has a huge knock on effect!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

    Biscay Low a la met office?

    Yep, and still looking good at 180

    image.thumb.png.45253fe346b17434ae6878f75d10c5cb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
    5 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    The Control run has the low further south at 156.  Just saying!

    image.thumb.png.e66b1714dbb961b9db0d13d1f310509c.png

    That looks like a duck looking over it’s shoulder, when the models show animal patterns snow usually follows, perhaps less scientific than some methods, but quite possibly equally as effective.

    Edited by Bazray
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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
    2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    No, just pointing out a post that was 100% incorrect

    just point out with a friendly bit of help then......  thats how we all learn 

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    GEFS 18z trending colder with the mean position of the big low further south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
    Just now, Bazray said:

    That looks like a duck looking over it’s shoulder, when the models show animal patterns snow follow, perhaps less scientific than some methods, but quite possibly equally as effective.

    Oh my god, yes I see the duck! It's a sign!

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    22 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    It's rolling out now, should be finished about 11:45pm

    Its been stuck at T78 for ages, just gone to T84 so running very late tonight...again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
    Just now, Updated_Weather said:

    Oh my god, yes I see the duck! It's a sign!

    Exactly, look at my profile picture, that was a wolf, and we got copious amounts of snow shortly afterwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
    Just now, Bazray said:

    Exactly, look at my profile picture, that was a wolf, and we got copious amounts of snow shortly afterwards.

    Sorry to disappoint, looks more like a whale with sharp teeth to me?

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Just discussing the models... it’s the model discussion thread after all. I was responding to another post about that time frame by saying it looks ok, but it delivers cold rain. Appolagies if that takes the thread away from what you believe it should be about ??‍♂️

    Fair play. You can comment on anything you want, but don't expect to be called out on a very unlikely fruition of the chart you posted!!! Oiche mhaith!

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    Complete opposite of this time last week

    its as as if a reversal or ssw has happened 

    Fancy that

    all those back ground signals

    model reading can be a fickle hobby

    “you guys” 

    (big lessons could be learnt here)

    just saying

    Edited by snowbob
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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    4 minutes ago, edo said:

    just point out with a friendly bit of help then......  thats how we all learn 

    There is a learning section here on the site. Apologies if I offended, it was 100% incorrect though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    2 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Its been stuck at T78 for ages, just gone to T84 so running very late tonight...again.

    The GFSP runs in a strange way.  It goes to 78 and stops for 15 minutes, then runs out to about 180 and does the same again.  Not sure why but that's what it does?!

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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