Cold hunt - models and chat

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

The 18z extracts the very most out of a NW polar flow, followed by a sliding low @144- which leads to a NE flow

about as good as it gets...

Indeed, I’d give it a 66/1 chance. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

The low is close to 1,000 further south now! 

Snow south of the M4 alright, but at this rate it will miss us completely! Models all over the place.

Aye, turns out 18Z has snowy low too far south! south of M4 event on this run anyway, change like mad though next 15 runs or so

[mountsbaysnow]

A good chart these days is hard to find, true cold the lasting kind,a good chart these days is hard to find so please be gentle with these charts of mine.

 

 

[Tim Bland]

Looks like most miss out on snow from both sliders though as they go too far south? Better for cold but worse for snow?

Edited January 25, 2019 by Tim Bland

[tight isobar]

We have aligned in the fronts of the major displace in the nor hem...-going forwards..ie east/nor-east incur..

BUT b4 we get there...there is some major dramatical dynamics...via track and chase of swinging lp-systems .

Finaly is it a snowy breakdown...then an-anything sub-arctic stream....YES ImO..and im standing firm on it.

Edited January 25, 2019 by tight isobar

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, turns out 18Z has snowy low too far south! south of M4 event on this run anyway, change like mad though next 15 runs or so

I’d rather lose 1 snowy run for longer term gain 

[kold weather]

That is a massive difference.

Could be a huge coup for the GFSP for sure...

I'm a little in shock!

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The 18z extracts the very most out of a NW polar flow, followed by a sliding low @144- which leads to a NE flow

about as good as it gets...

Yes we have a flat NW-SE jet well to our south - a sustained very cold NW polar flow the form horse.

[Ice Day]

Noting a lot of talk on here today how the models were reflecting the output of last week when the models all flipped to a milder outcome and the easterly was tossed aside.... which incidentally I agreed with.  However, what's is now apparent is some models are starting to rebel, it's all up in the air at the moment and we're getting teasers that something good could just be around the corner. 

It's only anecdotal, so I can't provide evidence, but the GFSP seems to be the most consistent at the moment and is the one I'm most looking forward to seeing in a few minutes time.  Fingers crossed.

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, kold weather said:

That is a massive difference.

Could be a huge coup for the GFSP for sure...

I'm a little in shock!

Take a breather!

We all are!

[kumquat]

The way that birthing of a 1010 low (that becomes the sometimes elusive runner) has been pushed back longitudinally further west over subsequent runs looks to be symptomatic of the slow down we're expecting over the vortex field. 
How this impacts the adopted mother low's track over the Atlantic @ around 96 hrs is crucial to where we go forwards.
Pleasing to see that this apparently negligible wave at such an early stage is being influenced by a macro pattern that appears to diverge from the norm.

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

I’d rather lose 1 snowy run for longer term gain 

The gain is there in front of you..

A snowy breakdown seems a dramatic conclusion..given our luck..

But 4 once...its a coneievable scenario..

As crazy as it may seem..

The wait for the toilet...will have ya weeing for fun!!!

I wish i could use-different terminology..

But except..its a forum on a scale...to which i cannot !!

Edited January 25, 2019 by tight isobar

[smichling]

I really like the fact that it’s corrected sooo far south and even missed south in fact. I think it’s like we’ve seen the Northernmost possibility and now the Southernmost possibility and so the eventual outcome should be somewhere near the middle of the two, which is hopefully right where we need it for maximum snow! The pendulum has gone one way and will surely go back the other way before coming to rest in the middle.

Edited January 25, 2019 by smichling

[kold weather]

The lows are actually too far south. Even here it barely gives a dusting. Still a long way to go and this run may be too far on the other direction.

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

That is a massive difference.

Could be a huge coup for the GFSP for sure...

I'm a little in shock!

Not for the first time , the gfs run at day 9 looks like the previous gfsp ......

oh, forgot to post earlier ........after the noon suites, I reckon that Leeds snowline (relating to the day 6 system, not the first half of next week) is probably adjusted south to Sheffield/n Derbyshire 

Edited January 25, 2019 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

Nick Miller just now-

Colder still as we go into next week and the S word will come into play

Great 18z BTW..

[NeilN]

I don't understand or believe my Points West forecast (I wish Ian Ferguson would do it indoors...unless BBC Bristol is broke!)..3c on Tuesday and Weds and back up to 8c. I refuse to believe it. 

[Coopsy]

3 minutes ago, smichling said:

I really like the fact that it’s corrected sooo fat south and even missed south in fact. I think it’s like we’ve seen the Northernmost possibility and now the Southernmost possibility and so the eventual outcome should be somewhere near the middle of the two, which is hopefully right where we need it for maximum snow! The pendulum has gone one way and will surely go back the other way before coming to rest in the middle.

Exactly it’s usually an extreme one way, an extreme the other and then settles in the middle. All looking good to me 

Edited January 25, 2019 by CanadianCoops

[Tim Bland]

Not a great 18z gfs IMO. No snow next week for most as lows go too far south and no snowy breakdown either. Would rather have snow next week than be chasing rainbows at day 10+ 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Tim Bland

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Noting a lot of talk on here today how the models were reflecting the output of last week when the models all flipped to a milder outcome and the easterly was tossed aside.... which incidentally I agreed with.  However, what's is now apparent is some models are starting to rebel, it's all up in the air at the moment and we're getting teasers that something good could just be around the corner. 

It's only anecdotal, so I can't provide evidence, but the GFSP seems to be the most consistent at the moment and is the one I'm most looking forward to seeing in a few minutes time.  Fingers crossed.

Have you ever known the models to be all over the place at 96 to 120.Point being when they show a snow feast at 120 we should be cautious, and like today when they went mild it was taken as gospel. So it's never over till its over and I think we are going to hit the jackpot soon. You get enough near misses and we only need  a bit of luck and it will happen. 

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Nick Miller just now-

Colder still as we go into next week and the S word will come into play

Great 18z BTW..

But milder at the end of the week mate 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Banbury said:

But milder at the end of the week mate 

Nope, not on the one i just watched, didn't mention end of the week

[kold weather]

I'm willing to bet there are some outrageous ensembles tonight. 

Still a little in shock to be honest...

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Banbury said:

But milder at the end of the week mate 

Oh yes because BBC are 100% right! Awful forecasting..

[snowray]

20 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I was talking about the GFSP which hasn't started yet , which as we know can give a completely different scenario 

I'm staying up for the para til the end even if its running late as usual, wanted an early night but I just can't help myself, I bet its going to be a cracker, not too south, or north, just right...countrywide blizzards!