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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Just now, Stuie W said:

Some sick buggers programming these models.

Haha, Yh probably the EU Leaders running the ECM

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4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Here we go again - Groundhog Day

The Day Tenners are getting excited again

See you next Sunday for some more Day 10 BOOOOOOM Charts 

If its at T72 Next weekend then the majority might be interested

I think we need a vote of confidence on this matter!

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Back to chasing 10 day charts that show nivernia, but never verify. This has been the winter of chasing shadows, games nearly up. 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

I keep seeing this, but my recollection is that the 2000s were worse than the 1990s, until we reached the end of the 2000s at least.

Down south the 1990s were far better for cold and snow: Feb 1991, 1994, Jan/Feb 1996 immediately spring to mind and in Nottingham Dec 1996 and Dec 1997 brought some good falls of snow.

The period from Jan 2001 to Dec 2009 brought nothing but very transient falls for the south. That was when the term "large teapot" came to the fore!

Agree. The 90s were a lot better for the south than the 2000s, up till 2008/09 when it got a lot better. The only significant falls of snow I can remember between 2000 and 2008 are December 2000, Jan 2003, and the Jan 2004 thundersnow event. Most snow events during this period were short lived and melted within a day or two. 

The 90s had more significant cold spells - Feb ‘91, November ‘93, Feb ‘94, 95/96 winter, end December ‘96/early Jan ‘97. Plus other snowfall events. Obviously things went downhill from 97/98 onwards and didn’t improve significantly until 2008/09.

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Just now, John Badrick said:

large teapot

hahaha still does it if you write large teapot

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Think we’re take this failed easterly for this . Lovely run 🤞🏻

6F402DE2-DBA7-4B15-B622-355D3DE0D0D6.png

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4C702672-20F8-4F5F-9E14-73F1C12706D7.png

DD6CBAF3-D6C4-462D-85E2-9698C01596A0.png

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Nice chart for Day 11: 😁

image.thumb.png.5da5596ada5c5fce2e5c558a62da7b37.png Subject to intensive LPA!👍

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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Back to chasing 10 day charts that show nivernia, but never verify. This has been the winter of chasing shadows, games nearly up. 

 

 

 

We’re only half way through winter, with late winter and early spring normally being the time when the UK gets its coldest weather.

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6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Here we go again - Groundhog Day

The Day Tenners are getting excited again

See you next Sunday for some more Day 10 BOOOOOOM Charts 

If its at T72 Next weekend then the majority might be interested

What IS interesting though is the timeframe is coming FORWARD in time.

In all my years, that's normally a strong signal that the model is keying into something properly, its when you start to see things getting delayed that you worried. Pretty much all the big cold spells I can remember had this movement forward in time as the signal becomes more clear.

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JFF the GFS sends the Canadian PV lobe towards the euro trough at D16; bitter cold snowy run:

1130719334_gfsnh-0-384(1).thumb.png.6e57c087a439fad1606e427f4b5a7293.png

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7 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

No I haven't got another chase in me, the mods can't get it right at t96 so why an earth would they nail it from 240hrs? 

The downwell has flopped at the end of the day we all know it can happen but just have a feeling it's one of the years, 

As for next week it's not really a cold spell let's be honest, having to go high on a hill in January to find snow doesn't tick my box and definitely doesn't class as a cold spell!

I'd agree with you to a degree so far this winter has been a bust ,fact.any cold from the NW in winter generally is a high level thing and ATM that's all it's showing in the reliable.Also this winter  any proper cold has been at the ten day mark.The only positive I can take is giving the SSW ete and the bullish prospects for Feb from the pros surly we must take a hit before winters end!!!! If not then this will possibly be remembered as the biggest bust winter ever.

Edited by swfc
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Find it amazing that every winter people write winter off in January when 9 times out of 10 the UK’s coldest weather is in late winter into early spring. That is our climate. 

February and March are normally colder than the first half of winter. Heck, even April can be.

Edited by MattStoke
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The direction of travel based on background signals (MJO, period of SSW downwelling), as shown in the Ensembles for weeks now, is now coming into view in the reliable - at the right timeframe. The path is a greenland height rise, not an easterly spell - so confidence in the model output moving in this direction is very high I say, and now far less chance of significant margins of error.

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I understand there is model fatigue, but just because one set-up hasn't worked out well, doen't mean another one won't shortly down the line! Ironic as this one is BY FAR the more stable looking evolution wise and has big cross model support as well, something the easterly never had despite looking pretty impressive at times!

Anyway I still think the main show comes week 1-2 of Feb, all we are waiting for really is that lobe in NW America to get shoved SE either towards Europe or the Atlantic which is happening right at the back end of the GFS run.

Great 06z anyway with a bonus cold shot becoming more and more backed up by the models for the very back end of Jan.

 

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Just now, pureasthedriven said:

That’s a cluster and a half! 

Well actually it isn't, and that's kinda the point. 

But metaphorically speaking - I hear you.

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just an observation but on most runs this winter there never seems any areas of low pressure pushing up the west coast of greenland.i remember SM mentioning this over the years plus the waa.hopefully before winters out it makes it!!!

Edited by swfc

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1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

Well actually it isn't, and that's kinda the point. 

But metaphorically speaking - I hear you.

I know, my friend. That was my point, too 😉

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Find it amazing that every winter people write winter off in January when 9 times out of 10 the UK’s coldest weather is in late winter into early spring. That is our climate. 

Very true, 1st march last year. Heavy snow and max of -3c !

AVN_1_2018030100_2.png

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what i find incredible is the varying difference in forecasts! latest bbc forecast saying signif snow crossing the country monday night and snow showers packing in n piling up across the country on tues!! these forecasts use to be incredible, they seem now nothing but a laughing stock n change as much as glosea n mogreps seem to!

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Talk about low nighttime minima: no wind, clear skies and uppers of -12C...-18C - before midnight?:cold:

image.thumb.png.4ea0ad920ee8876fc4aefed9af760aa8.png

Unlikely, I know - but it has happened before!

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It looks as if we might be back in the game reading all this, but a question - which models do the BBC and ITV use? I know the latter overcook temps a lot. 

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