Cold hunt - models and chat

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Disco_Stu said:

I'm optimistic, I still think that there will be another SSW with down well and loads of potential and background signals that will deliver a beast and snowmaggedon. All in the reliable timeframe of 11 months!!!! You heard it here first. 

Another SSW? We are still waiting for the effects from the one from end of Jan? If one happens in Feb (by the way the PV warms every Feb) it will be March before the effects?

[snowbob]

Just now, Nights King said:

Half an inch to an inch at best for most of south on that so pretty poor effort away from hills..

Seriously 

be lucky if the models are correct with that on the day

knee jerk reactions in here are insane

and this isn’t aimed at you personally nights king

[shotski]

39 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Too many are treating the latest Ecm run longer term as gospel but there is a lot of uncertainty..however, there is certainty that it will be turning colder from the North during Sunday and then progressively colder still on Mon / Tues into next midweek! 

Absolutely, the EPS extended look great for cold & snow. 

[SMU]

Noone fancy posting the day 4 mean...

oh go on then---

 

Would be good for a large portion of the south-

Also noted @Sperrin was the very convective flow for Ireland next week-

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Disco_Stu said:

11 months! It's a clue 

Haha yes...perhaps a warming in August and we may get a cold December next year no sign of any stray warmings in nxt couple of weeks 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I wouldn't worry those snow charts from Weather US are hopeless as Nick L has said numerous times

Oh I understand that.  Would be typical though! 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Don

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, shotski said:

Absolutely, the EPS extended look great for cold & snow. 

Well thats a very pleasing post!

Im still wondering how we get there tho!!

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Back in Dec I said "Background Signals" mean nothing unless the benefits are being shown in the reliable timeframe in the model ouput. I said exactly the same last winter aswell, although I recieved alot of flak for saying so. This winter so far has proved this to be very true.

The biggest hurdle for weather forecasting beyond 7 days is simply due to the chaos theory and even with the massive increase in computing power they struggle to resolve this. When I think back to the 1980s and those countryfile weekly forecasts you have to say we haven't progressed very much if you compare computing power back then and now. Fair enough we have seen an improvement in short term forecasts and maybe 7-10 days but thats about it in my opinion.

Hi Dave

I remember watching Gavin P's video, in which he itemised all the 'useful' analogues...And, despite last Autumn's signals (ENSO, sun spots, QBO, AMO...) cumulatively pointing, statistically, toward a back-loaded colder-than-average winter, the #1 analogue year cited, was followed by a very mild winter...?

It just goes to show how much work is still to be done...Analogues are fine, but with one crucial flaw: no two situations are ever identical...

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Haha yes...perhaps a warming in August and we may get a cold December next year no sign of any stray warmings in nxt couple of weeks 

The strat will always be warm in August.

[tight isobar]

23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Noone fancy posting the day 4 mean...

oh go on then---

 

Would be good for a large portion of the south-

Also noted @Sperrin was the very convective flow for Ireland next week-

Exactly..a slack U-BAR..with a mini defined feature too boot..

Its says...snow all over it..

Trying to prize some off -of the midlands north show..

Is like explaining the definition of a no-deal to the old hagg!!..

@pulling teeth!!

Re-edit;..

Even that snap/still is imo..

Off the mark of final exaction...

And we shall see if i wear egg on my face...

Or sparklers around ones neck..

Midlands /south notable event...

MY PUNT!!!

Edited January 25, 2019 by tight isobar

[Tim Bland]

@Steve Murr what’s your current gut feeling on the position of that low on Tues? Mine is it will go too far south for most? Do you think the UKMO would bring much of southern counties into play?

[Rambo]

57 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Back in Dec I said "Background Signals" mean nothing unless the benefits are being shown in the reliable timeframe in the model ouput. I said exactly the same last winter aswell, although I recieved alot of flak for saying so. This winter so far has proved this to be very true.

Sorry, but that doesnt really make much sense. The reliable time frame is basically day 10 at a push, but at the moment realistically a lot less than that. Surely background signals are exactly as they are worded....signals, which is effectively more "pro cold" forcings, or more tickets to a lottery etc etc. I dont recall anyone with any knowledge saying the cold WILL happen, it just gives us more chance at cold, I just dont know how many times that has to be explained to people. (this bit wasnt directly aimed at you by the way)

Once the cold is in the reliable, then the background signals are of no use as the cold would be happening, but they become useful in predicting future cold. 

Quite a few parts of Europe have done very well for cold, USA exceptionally so. Whether these events are related to all or some of the background signals or not, I wouldnt know, but they've certainly done alright if you like cold weather. IF this winter doesnt deliver anything noteworthy, then its more just down to bad luck than anything. But that is no reason to belittle or ignore any background signals surely?

Edited January 25, 2019 by Rambo

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The strat will always be warm in August.

‘‘Twas a joke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Noone fancy posting the day 4 mean...

oh go on then---

 

Would be good for a large portion of the south-

Also noted @Sperrin was the very convective flow for Ireland next week-

similar to this, or too far south, very snowy this

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

@Steve Murr what’s your current gut feeling on the position of that low on Tues? Mine is it will go too far south for most? Do you think the UKMO would bring much of southern counties into play?

These systems 'historically' end up further south... 

UKMO raw is to far south..

But you never know what the actual track will be

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well thats a very pleasing post!

Im still wondering how we get there tho!!

Iv only one problem with that they have been showing this for as long as i can remember..

[snowray]

20 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It maybe that the ECM op is at higher resolution. so is spotting the smaller arteas of higher 850hpa. I'd suspect it'd do the same in a strong cold spell as well.

The ensembles really starting to strengthen that low on Tuesday, though still some real uncertainty.

Broadly the stronger it is, the more north it will go, around 985mbs bring the Midlands well into play. Quite a few evolve differently and more aggressively than the ECM op.

Yes higher resolution alright but it was wrong when it was a cold outlier quite a few times thus far this winter, surely it can also get it wrong when it overdoes it on the mild side of things as well from time to time. The D6/D7 period is all important now, we want that low to slide SE ideally and countrywide snowfall will be there for the taking, it will make or break this winter in my opinion and obviously have further repercussions going forward into early February. 

 

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

similar to this, or too far south, very snowy this

Yes looks snowy-

nothing mentioned on Britweather years - Looks like a wales / North Midlands event-

PPN sheild North of the centre point probs extends 50-75 Northwards - thats the snow zone !

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Iv only one problem with that they have been showing this for as long as i can remember..

I believe since mid December . 

[cheeky_monkey]

17 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Sorry, but that doesnt really make much sense. The reliable time frame is basically day 10 at a push, but at the moment realistically a lot less than that. Surely background signals are exactly as they are worded....signals, which is effectively more "pro cold" forcings, or more tickets to a lottery etc etc. I dont recall anyone with any knowledge saying the cold WILL happen, it just gives us more chance at cold, I just dont know how many times that has to be explained to people.

Once the cold is in the reliable, then the background signals are of no use as the cold would be happening, but they become useful in predicting future cold. 

Quite a few parts of Europe have done very well for cold, USA exceptionally so. Whether these events are related to all or some of the background signals or not, I wouldnt know, but they've certainly done alright if you like cold weather. IF this winter doesnt deliver anything noteworthy, then its more just down to bad luck than anything. But that is no reason to belittle or ignore any background signals surely?

how so?...December was exceptionally mild across most of the US ..January has been at best Average so far

Edited January 25, 2019 by cheeky_monkey

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

This is what really peeves me about this site...how dare you question the weather mafia with 000's posts...it's a joke...the best forecasters so far this winter are the ones who predicted run of the mill snowless winter, not the rampers. TEITS is 100 % entitled to say his bit...and I actually agree with him but why can't someone challenge him without getting slated? 

 

 

Not really .....unless they gave evidence to back up their pov then they are just going on stats .....

the eps are more snowy by day 6 than any run thus far this winter .....assume there must be a fair number of members south or less developed as per the gfsp 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All! Some very volatile weather on the way, Watch this space....

[P-M]

2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

how so?...December was exceptionally mild across most of the US ..January has been at best Average so far

Howay splitting hairs here lol They had a few snowstorms in December 2018.  Maybe not frigid all the time but certainly some very snowy incidents? We just can't seem to tip the balance at the min but the erm....you know...background potentials of the background signals is what I'm living for right now....  

Edited January 25, 2019 by P-M

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Not really .....unless they gave evidence to back up their pov then they are just going on stats .....

the eps are more snowy by day 6 than any run thus far this winter .....assume there must be a fair number of members south or less developed as per the gfsp 

Thanks Blue... we have discussed the eps mean before the thread descended into the abyss again.

I hate it when people start tackling the man and not the ball.

hopefully tomorrow will see an upgrade WRT the low at day 6..

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, P-M said:

Howay splitting hairs here lol They had a few snowstorms in December 2018.  Maybe not frigid all the time but certainly some very snowy incidents?  

nothing unusual...USA is a big place so there will always be storms and snow in the winter months... but like i said December was very mild across the US