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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted

Big step in the right direction as far as my untrained eye can see.. Another big step in the morning and we may well and truly be in business ?

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

What i wanna see..

as that could open up in nearer time frame..

And a little shunt also...puts the meto prog...in the picture..@the crucial point.

What I don't want to see..

It's my snow and Nick Sussex has nicked it!

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, Jackski4 said:

Big step in the right direction as far as my untrained eye can see.. Another big step in the morning and we may well and truly be in business ?

Possible though still odds severely in the favour of a stronger low given the strong agreement on the models...but the 96hrs proves I suppose that its not quite utterly nailed on still!

Hopefully the ECM ensembles move in the right direction as well and this isn't just the ECM being more well within the mean of the ECM ensembles.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

you can see how things are difficult to resolve for day 6 on that op  - we end up in a similar place but if the phasing is slightly different then the consequences for that low will also be - odds still firmly stacked on the deep system as shown but the gfsp solution isn't so far fetched. 

The problem with the GFSp is that it is modelling what the GFS op showed for 2 runs yesterday that it hasn't replicated in the last four runs:

anim_gsc2.gif

It has the trigger intense low moving SE and spitting into two cells. The energy split enables the later low to continue to slide SE. Has the GFSp more confidence in this trigger or simply is behind the curve?

Time will tell...

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
5 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Ecm still saying snow for the south tues night

its a different system to the 00z run as per my previous post - a lot less snow from this occlusion that the channel runner from earlier

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, IDO said:

The problem with the GFSp is that it is modelling what the GFS op showed for 2 runs yesterday that it hasn't replicated in the last four runs:

anim_gsc2.gif

It has the trigger intense low moving SE and spitting into two cells. The energy split enables the later low to continue to slide SE. Has the GFSp more confidence in this trigger or simply is behind the curve?

Time will tell...

The ECM isn't that far away from that solution, at least at 96hrs, but the system still ends up merging and powering up. Still its not that common of a set-up and so there is that ittle bit of hope that the main models have got it wrong. As long as the GFSP is still onboard, there is a chance.

Wonder what the ECM ensembles will show...

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Possible though still odds severely in the favour of a stronger low given the strong agreement on the models...but the 96hrs proves I suppose that its not quite utterly nailed on still!

Hopefully the ECM ensembles move in the right direction as well and this isn't just the ECM being more well within the mean of the ECM ensembles.

When do the ensembles come out ?

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T168

image.thumb.jpg.40ee8719b31acd9b9d99adf4434c7937.jpg

Getting more interesting maybe?  Route towards a better block to NE on next few frames?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

The problem with the GFSp is that it is modelling what the GFS op showed for 2 runs yesterday that it hasn't replicated in the last four runs:

anim_gsc2.gif

It has the trigger intense low moving SE and spitting into two cells. The energy split enables the later low to continue to slide SE. Has the GFSp more confidence in this trigger or simply is behind the curve?

Time will tell...

Hopefully, the FV3's lesser predilection for chopping-and-changing (every six hours) will put it in good stead, for the future...the real weather doesn't flip-flop, like nappies in a windstorm?

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Winter Hill Seasoned

Winter Hill

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168

image.thumb.jpg.40ee8719b31acd9b9d99adf4434c7937.jpg

Getting more interesting maybe?  Route towards a better block to NE on next few frames?

My eyes are looking over Scandinavia 

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

this run brings a lot of snow to the west side of Ireland  (as well as all northern uk hills)

highly unlikely 850s just arent there from 144 to 192. This run will not be near the final outcome though given the massive differences each run so it doesnt matter to much. We need to hope the low crosses the UK further south. 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Popular Post
Posted

I think it’s a case of wait and see. What’s interesting me is that the models are lining up pretty serious LPs to crash right over us...and not just one.  Rare so imo they will either shift north or south or weaken and disrupt.  Whichever.....looking like some pretty interesting weather ahead

 

BFTP

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Looks good next week . Wet , cold, windy and not white . Coldish Sunday till Tuesday with a few flurries. Then turning horrible . 

415A7A5E-EE46-47B0-B115-E3F4F43B32B1.png

399732FE-D266-463C-91BC-A7DE2F83CB18.png

D90A6261-58F3-40F3-8A9D-3AA34668EA50.png

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, MKN said:

highly unlikely 850s just arent there from 144 to 192. This run will not be near the final outcome though given the massive differences each run so it doesnt matter to much. We need to hope the low crosses the UK further south. 

no comment on how likely - just telling you about the widespread 9/18" snowcover that the run brings down the entire west side of Ireland (the higher totals on the hills of course)

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

as the run moves into lala land, we really don't want to see a general sw/ne axis to the flow (which is what day 8 shows)

I've suspected for a while that you get to see these ECM charts before we do, @bluearmy !  I'd say it is what the day 9 chart shows!

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted

A low that size will not sink like that so that leaves us with two options

 

the low will not be that size and will be deformed 

 

or or the low will but won’t sink

its the same option as the lead up to the failed easterly 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I think it’s a case of wait and see. What’s interesting me is that the models are lining up pretty serious LPs to crash right over us...and not just one.  Rare so imo they will either shift north or south or weaken and disrupt.  Whichever.....looking like some pretty interesting weather ahead

 

BFTP

I have to say getting a 965mbs low over the UK in this type of set-up is fairly unusual. Yes in a rampant jet stream situation with a organised PV that sort of low is easily do able, but not sure either of those factors are in play to enough of extent to justify quite such a fast development. Still its been a trend for a while now and so hard to deny it.

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

 

Where i will note my steadfast points...on nxt weeks events!!....

 

If you're going to do that, please make sure you include your postings for the last 6 weeks as well...

Edited by Steve C
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

N Hem profile looks dreadful by day 9/10 on the ecm. Big positive nao, no route to anything great in our neck of the woods any time soon from there. Early next week looking VERY interesting though, some spots could get buried!

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Sky Full Accomplished

Sky Full

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
Posted (edited)

The quite significant differences between the ECM 0Z and 12Z for Saturday 2nd February:

                                          500s.                                                      850s

0Z         image.thumb.gif.e3c958bac6667794e281d2e047a54ad9.gif   image.thumb.gif.9a0a6031d2e4cb9d0378b0aca40315e8.gif

12Z.      image.thumb.gif.76c6fd4b3c0184bb9e8e65e379767631.gif   image.thumb.gif.623f148a91b8bcd4e09bd2010b168016.gif

The low is further south and more intense bringing colder and more widespread uppers.      Must be a move to a colder evolution.....  (nb. The 12z charts do show conditions 12 hours later than the 0z displayed but I still regard this as an upgrade!)

Edited by Sky Full
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