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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

the low hasnt even developed yet 😂😂

Lol, and neither has the first one, which some are starting to take note of at last, certainly think some agreement on that before something thats happening days later.

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Too many posts wandering off topic in the last couple of pages. A bit of chat is ok but let’s keep it at least somewhat model related. And no bickering!

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3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:
6 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

the low hasnt even developed yet 😂😂

So? You can't ignore the trends for it.. MetO are keeping a close eye, they run dozens of options. Yes we won't have nailed an exact track til Sunday/Monday.

All about trends at this stage.

There are several lows that I have seen modelled to affect us over the coming week to 10 days - for sake of clarity, can we start naming them?! (or at least post a chart and indicate which one is being talked about)

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Quick check through the ensembles shows an interesting pattern devloping after the first week or so of Feb. The ever growing Russian high backing west as a trough drops into Europe, might be mild at first so maybe 850s not being the best to show but to say they looked primed for a northern block is an understatement...

Many feature a trough dropping around the 4th/5th SE under a block the NE aided by polar heights and those look strong. 

image.thumb.png.e3bfc3c090c97d144ef3ea1a29765770.png

Roll it on a few days...

image.thumb.png.28d1ff0c7427f10634c06dc633c875d8.png

The PV over canada begins to shift and merge with the aleutian low aiding to increased heights across the Eastern seaboard. The potential easterly will most likely be of the mild kind 2/3 develop a cold one but im not interested in that yet. But something to keep an eye on is a low diving SE over the UK most likely wet, windy and mild but with a ridge thrown behind it connecting to those heights NE. That is ofcourse you're looking for the chase I would very much understand if not. 

Alas I will continue to check this throughout the ensembles that come over the next few days.

 

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3 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

There are several lows that I have seen modelled to affect us over the coming week to 10 days - for sake of clarity, can we start naming them?! (or at least post a chart and indicate which one is being talked about)

the low that sweeps down for a possible snow event tues

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We await the EC 12z .. a little bit saner than 18 hours previous😂

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1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

the low that sweeps down for a possible snow event tues

Thanks LPW - I am proposing we name that low 'Ruby' for clarity 🧐

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7 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

There are several lows that I have seen modelled to affect us over the coming week to 10 days - for sake of clarity, can we start naming them?! (or at least post a chart and indicate which one is being talked about)

Named after the areas they affect "North of M4" and "South of M4"

 

And while I'm here, I'll repeat my question from a few days ago, could the two "North of M4" and "South of M4" merge and if they did would that give us an intense low?

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22 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Quite a few of the ensembles are really bringing in significant disruptive snowfall into the south on Tuesday evening. A few ensembles nudging it a little further north as well. Really feel this maybe more of a story than the 2nd low at this rate.

Hard to eyeball it, but based on liquid amounts converted to snowfall, several runs show something between 9-12 inches, and the rest are in the 3-6 type range, but as I said that is only a very rough estimate.

Fingers crossed for the south!!

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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Named after the areas they affect "North of M4" and "South of M4"

 

And while I'm here, I'll repeat my question from a few days ago, could the two "North of M4" and "South of M4" merge and if they did would that give us an intense low?

I was't going to mention this until successful, but I have proposed to Highways agency that M4 be re-located to run along the Tamar - thus keeping Knocker and everyone else happy with their respective snow fortunes ... sorry, back on topic ...

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2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Named after the areas they affect "North of M4" and "South of M4"

 

And while I'm here, I'll repeat my question from a few days ago, could the two "North of M4" and "South of M4" merge and if they did would that give us an intense low?

That is a distinct possibility..

And why such a deep formed placed low..COULD DELIVER- a disrupt event..

This is going 2 be an awesome watch!!!

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15 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

the low hasnt even devieloped yet 😂😂

but winter is over and this week is dead lolol

its no good for the south its going to go into france 

lol its going north

These are seemingly intelligent(some with degrees and phds probably) grown men and women making these comments aswell lolol

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6 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Named after the areas they affect "North of M4" and "South of M4"

 

And while I'm here, I'll repeat my question from a few days ago, could the two "North of M4" and "South of M4" merge and if they did would that give us an intense low?

Pretty sure thats what we dont want.

Anyone clarify??

Edited by Chris101
Seen TI's post now.

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5 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

There are several lows that I have seen modelled to affect us over the coming week to 10 days - for sake of clarity, can we start naming them?! (or at least post a chart and indicate which one is being talked about)

Ok. We have the following named lows, sadly no highs until the Euro Lack of heights is agreed.

  1. Brexit Plan A low
  2. Brexit Plan B low
  3. Polar Maritime No deal low
  4. Tropical Maritime leavers deal low
  5. Polar Maritime slowly filling crash out low

 

Hope that covers things, some of these are in fact in development despite modelling concerns but all will be resolved by next Tuesday when Shannon Entrophy (a true remoaner) has left the room.

Best Wishes

GLTTW

 

 

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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

That is a distinct possibility..

And why such a deep formed placed low..COULD DELIVER- a disrupt event..

 This is going 2 be an awesome watch!!!

 

1 minute ago, Chris101 said:

Pretty sure thats what we dont want.

Anyone clarify??

Just quoting tight's explanation from above your post, think you posted at same time.

 

Glad the indication is it would be a disruptive event rather than kill the event, can will this to happen again?

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A few GEFS had a better track of low and also a shallower feature .

It’s a longshot given the ops but perhaps just about enough time to see at least some changes to that low .

ECM on the way ! Can it deliver something better.

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After taking a few days off from the models, I have perhaps not come back at the best time, but at least there is potential for Tuesday in the south......

Edited by Don
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20 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Named after the areas they affect "North of M4" and "South of M4"

 

And while I'm here, I'll repeat my question from a few days ago, could the two "North of M4" and "South of M4" merge and if they did would that give us an intense low?

Two negatives make a positive, the M4 hard shoulder High.

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I would be amazed if ecm goes on a different route with that upper low day 6 ...

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3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

 Two negatives make a positive, the M4 hard shoulder High.

So it's the last thing we want, not what we want as stated before? 

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Genuine question,  its very negative about next week in here, but in the Northern regional threads people seem fairly upbeat about snow chances, are all the folk in the regional thread deluded?

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