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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

You're a bit late, we're up to t144 already

Talking about the runner you can't see it the inbetween bit of 96 and 120 would like to know it's track and precipitation with it.

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2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Can you please explain to some of the users especially newbies that may not understand what are you on about?

 

Low further west dragging in mild aor and at the moment just looks stuck there like a slug!!no slider what so ever!!worse position and most frustrating position to be in considering all the background signals and also with a ridge getting thrown into greenland!!we are extremely unlucky cos another winter and 9 times out of 10 with cold air over the uk that low would slide!!

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GFS T132, better than previous run, and nice to see that damned rabbit decapitated.

image.thumb.jpg.031d61ae751ea64e62c4ca6e799d86de.jpg

If there's any confusion, I think some on here are looking at short term snow potential, others inc. me at medium term freeze potential.

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2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

?

image.thumb.png.5bf537f490875ee3edc1334f586b5637.png

C, mon..we know there is an abundance to play out and be deciphered here.

This is a true rollercoaster scenario.

The tracking and placements are liable to jump and wobble now run 2 run..

My money stays where my mouth has been all day...on the eventual-staging of fruition....

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Low further west dragging in mild aor and at the moment just looks stuck there like a slug!!no slider what so ever!!worse position and most frustrating position to be in considering all the background signals and also with a ridge getting thrown into greenland!!we are extremely unlucky cos another winter and 9 times out of 10 with cold air over the uk that low would slide!!

Thank you ?

Sadly even with these background signals it never a guarantee for Cold on this island ?

But at least the profile of the artice is better so hopefully maybe something down the line come February 

Let's not give up just yet

 

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T132, better than previous run, and nice to see that damned rabbit decapitated.

image.thumb.jpg.031d61ae751ea64e62c4ca6e799d86de.jpg

If there's any confusion, I think some on here are looking at short term snow potential, others inc. me at medium term freeze potential.

I think medium to long term potential goes up a lot now it seems that PV is slowly dying... Short term prognosis still looks good, don't understand all the negativity as it will change every run for the next couple of days until that LP develops more! Things still looking great. Although I'm never letting you near my rabbit!

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Time to ditch this current chase and move into the next one !

Both the GFS and UKMO lift out most of the cold by day 6 before the precip arrives.

Unless you’re on top of Ben Nevis then at best it looks like three hours of slush and then rain wth a slow moving low stuck over the UK .

So day 6 currently looks like a write off and we now move onto the next chapter of Indiana Jones and the search for non slushy snow !

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GEM, JMA, UKMO, ICON, GEFS all going the same way and showing a variation of the same theme for Wed/Thu - snow confined to highest hills/mountains. 

image.thumb.png.4fa8e5a48aa1ac61f378625a69c8f8cf.pngimage.thumb.png.ecd59c2e4bde7ecb286b0e8be6de9331.pngimage.thumb.png.2c3b413c27782d171916f993ad0d901a.png
image.thumb.png.f2a6b640848a2b93219127f3235f23d4.pngimage.thumb.png.27bc00de446eec9a28883ad64d6e0867.png

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Low isn't moving as well out the way here which means the cold pool doesn't really come down.

Next slider may well slide Into air on the wrong side of marginal. We may even get our friend, the mild easterly at some point. ;)

As others have said, solid agreement. Looking like the King Euro nailed this, well done to ICON again for going with it before ukmo and GFS.

Third time lucky guys?!

Edited by kold weather
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