Cold hunt - models and chat

[offerman]

1 hour ago, Winter Hill said:

The Spanish met have been bang on with their winter forecast of  HP dominated winter over Iberia 

that slug to our south west and the PV over North Eastern Canada has been the killer of this winter 

Bang on. The amount of times I mentioned about the slug high to our southwest . 

It is the true killer of most of our winters so until it migrated westward of far northward then toppling to our north northeast then this winter will continue with let downs.  It doesn't matter what weather is in Canada or to the east and north as the key driver and immensely strong weather pattern that dominates is the permanent huge HP to our S/W  . It's so strong and stubborn that weather systems deflect around it or across the north of it to us. 

 

Its orientation affects so much for the uk unfortunately . It even defeated the ssw to the north and east and then again which was going to be the next upcoming cold snowy spell but all gone really .  

Looking beyond 4 dats really seems a permanent letdown  and even within D2-3 can change disappear 

[kold weather]

So my take on the 06z GFS:

1: south of M4, nothing, not even frontal edge snow (however wit hthe caveat that there is a chance of something moving in from the channel on Mlon-Tues)

2: M4 upto roughly Leeds (a line east-west of there) would be a transition zone between snow-rain, the further north hsaving more snow than rain.

3: north of there, should remain as snow.

 

[Nick F]

2 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Surely what has just happened in the last few days cold and snow wise and what is due to happen between Sunday and Thursday is pretty good for a UK winter?

We can all hold up glorious memories of winters past, but how many fell into the 47,63,87,categories?

If you are sad at what's on offer at this table ( a nice supper at your 'decent' local resteruant,2019) and are after ( Supper at the Savoy, 1947) try living through winter 1987/1988 ( Supper with food poisoning at the roadside cafe).

Personally, I think this would have been typical / average January weather pre 1988 for a lot winters, I guess now it may seem good in comparison to quite a lot of mild winters we've had since early naughties at least, apart from the cold winter blip in 2009/2010.

I think what constitutes a good winter for the UK is when we get at least a few spells of snow lying on the ground for more than a day! Most haven't seen that yet, unless you live up a hill. 

Back to the models, looks like the low still ends up to far north mid-week to bring southern Britain any meaningful snow before turning back to rain, could be quite snowy for Scotland, N. Ireland and N England though.

[offerman]

26 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

It seems to me that we are still in the very early stages of learning about the effect of SSWs. Until we have a much more refined view that can successfully be programmed in to the model algorithms, we will be left chasing our tails during and post these events.

Exactly CM makes complete sense. It's not just the SSW either it's the weather in general that still hard to get a grip on due to the charts changing and the input in to those . 

 

[Chris101]

Just a note to people who have been watching run after run, in just the last month whilst the pattern has been in its seemingly repetitive state.

As well as seeing a lot of wonderful looking LP's sliding in a lovely position for locking in the cold, i have seen numerous runs with massively blown up LP's over the UK.

I don't remember either coming off yet. 

[Stonethecrows]

22 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

It seems to me that we are still in the very early stages of learning about the effect of SSWs. Until we have a much more refined view that can successfully be programmed in to the model algorithms, we will be left chasing our tails during and post these events.

Exactly. So when people start moaning about how bad the models have been this winter we really ought to cut them some slack(the models that is). The post mortem of this winter further down the line will be fascinating.

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, TomW said:

Anything showing in the current outlook looks better than what we had around Xmas and just after with a stubborn high that would not move at least the weather is turning more mobile which will always give us a better chance further into February it’s far from over this winter!

True but to me even when we do get colder uppers over the country (next week) there is a Pm element hitting into this so don't expect much in the way of settling snow and if so it might be very transient in nature, I can just envisage a lot of damp chilly days ahead once we get the mild weekend out the way.

Problem is that we've all been fuelled by the SSW and good background signals from global models plus low solar minima so expectations have been high.

[kold weather]

The 06z is at least a step in the right direction in that the cold pool isn't blasted to kingdom come and is still rotating around the dual LP complex. This can be worked with. I'd personally prefer at least a little more on Tues in the south form the LP as Wednesday is going to deliver rain it looks like down here, but I'll take what I can.

[shaky]

Gfs 06z is a million times better than ecm and ukmo snow more widely from 60 hours to 168 hours but it is the 06z so dont believe it!!

[offerman]

15 minutes ago, TEITS said:

The way I see it is this.

When you have a very strong, organised Polar Vortex then this turbo charges the Jet Stream. A SSW weakens and disrupts the Polar Vortex and effectively puts the brakes on the Jet Stream. However this is only one jigsaw piece amongst many others. Obviously the other jigsaw pieces haven't been favourable for us just yet.

Thanks to everyone for your comments. I was concerned about misleading members as I know how passionate everyone is.

You haven't mislead anyone . No apologies needed .  The Jetstream and SSW will be determined by the stagnant huge HP positioning that is just to our SW. if that moves favourably then game on but until then dissapountments will continue . 

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

The 06z is at least a step in the right direction in that the cold pool isn't blasted to kingdom come and is still rotating around the dual LP complex. This can be worked with. I'd personally prefer at least a little more on Tues in the south form the LP as Wednesday is going to deliver rain it looks like down here, but I'll take what I can.

yeah but it's the 06z run - I wonder what it's verification stats are like particularly this winter, pretty poor I should think.

[A.J]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

certainly chance of snow tuesday, but again timed for heat of the day, needs to be timed from 5-10am, mild though later in the week, February sucks anyway now in the m/e, think there's only been 1 decent Feb since '97 or so

have you been on those Jamaican woodbines again Mark?.....'heat of the day'....lol

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs 06z is a million times better than ecm and ukmo snow more widely from 60 hours to 168 hours but it is the 06z so dont believe it!!

Well apart from the south ,where the eCM gives a widespread 6 inches on Tuesday, we get next to nothing on this run from the GFS bar maybe Kent. Could do with that feature being further west to allow more to benefit but that will shift around for a little while yet and I wouldn't be shocked to see a channel low type formation come off from it.

BUT I know what you mean, in terms of future potential and keeping the cold pool in place, it is better.

[offerman]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

So my take on the 06z GFS:

1: south of M4, nothing, not even frontal edge snow (however wit hthe caveat that there is a chance of something moving in from the channel on Mlon-Tues)

2: M4 upto roughly Leeds (a line east-west of there) would be a transition zone between snow-rain, the further north hsaving more snow than rain.

3: north of there, should remain as snow.

 

I edited a graphic to show what we need with the HP and what we don't need . 

 

 

[IDO]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

The 06z is at least a step in the right direction in that the cold pool isn't blasted to kingdom come and is still rotating around the dual LP complex. This can be worked with. I'd personally prefer at least a little more on Tues in the south form the LP as Wednesday is going to deliver rain it looks like down here, but I'll take what I can.

Yes, agree, the 0z was on the warmer side at that juncture, D7, and the 06z is more in line with the mean:

0z>>>06z>>>

Colder upper air in situ. Keeping that there for the lull will certainly be helpful for the next system from the PV lobe.

[kold weather]

Just now, IDO said:

Yes, agree, the 0z was on the warmer side at that juncture, D7, and the 06z is more in line with the mean:

0z>>>06z>>>

Colder upper air in situ. Keeping that there for the lull will certainly be helpful for the next system from the PV lobe.

Yep IDO, keeping the cold effectively means we live to fight another day. North does get a decent snow spell from this though the 06z isn't too overdramatic, broadly 5-10cms. This is because I think the energy is rather diffuse within the complex and so it never stays stable enough long enough to really get those large precip figures.

I'll be looking at the ensembles later for both the complex over france/Channel and for the LP and how it moves and how much precip comes up into the south/SE on Tuesday... Wednesday's LP probably not going to cut it regardless for the south, but the Midlands north are game on for /Wednesday still.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

So my take on the 06z GFS:

1: south of M4, nothing, not even frontal edge snow (however wit hthe caveat that there is a chance of something moving in from the channel on Mlon-Tues)

2: M4 upto roughly Leeds (a line east-west of there) would be a transition zone between snow-rain, the further north hsaving more snow than rain.

3: north of there, should remain as snow.

 

Bold move at so far out.... 

[Wilxy]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

True but to me even when we do get colder uppers over the country (next week) there is a Pm element hitting into this so don't expect much in the way of settling snow and if so it might be very transient in nature, I can just envisage a lot of damp chilly days ahead once we get the mild weekend out the way.

Problem is that we've all been fuelled by the SSW and good background signals from global models plus low solar minima so expectations have been high.

Problem is people keep looking into the longer range models thinking it’s a given that we would have a cold winter but when we see changes from only 3 days away, why are people looking at longer range models, example the EC46 and then everyone is expecting things to fall in line with it but the reality is that we live on a little island on the edge of the Atlantic Ocean so are most likely weather pattern is a changeable one, and it is the same story after we had a decent winter last year, people are more keen on looking for colder weather but it’s not always the same story, I love the colder weather but I’m not going to get upset on the 25th January because there’s still plenty of time left for colder weather! Keep the faith I know it’s been poor so far this winter but I’m still feeling optimistic.

[Mr Frost]

Well @Kentish Snowman it looks as though this thread has been at stage 3 for a while now. 

The guide you made was spot on mate! 

Beginners guide to the psyche of a model watcher in Winter.....

1) A cold spell is shown in FI - "it will never verify it will all go pear shaped"

2) A cold spell moves into the reliable timeframe - "that run looks very dry hardly any snow showing there"

3) The snow arrives after the commencement of said cold spell - "it maybe snowing outside but this cold spell looks like it will be finished next week"

 

Seven day cold spell has just ended here - start of next one arrives on Sunday. 

 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Mr Frost

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, agree, the 0z was on the warmer side at that juncture, D7, and the 06z is more in line with the mean:

0z>>>06z>>>

Colder upper air in situ. Keeping that there for the lull will certainly be helpful for the next system from the PV lobe.

Which looks to be a repeat performance the track could be anywhere from cornwall to the Orkneys 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Bold move at so far out.... 

Very bold..given the 6z already move to better alignment..and draft-of already colder overheads...

A step in the correct direct.

And we still have yet lots to spill through today..via suites and all supports!!.

 

[sunnijim]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Personally, I think this would have been typical / average January weather pre 1988 for a lot winters, I guess now it may seem good in comparison to quite a lot of mild winters we've had since early naughties at least, apart from the cold winter blip in 2009/2010.

I think what constitutes a good winter for the UK is when we get at least a few spells of snow lying on the ground for more than a day! Most haven't seen that yet, unless you live up a hill. 

Back to the models, looks like the low still ends up to far north mid-week to bring southern Britain any meaningful snow before turning back to rain, could be quite snowy for Scotland, N. Ireland and N England though.

I suppose expectancy levels vary depending on where you hang your hat?

Living much of my life on the South coast or London ( and at the ripe old age of 45) the spells of snow on the ground for a week or more on any given winter would not hit double figures.

 

The models are toying with a snow event for Southern counties on Tuesday it seems,if I were to wake up with snow on the ground for 48hrs,this  Winter would fall into an average category here already,with February still to come!

I agree though,to call it good would require a little more than what is on offer from the models at the moment.

[Methuselah]

Could be worse. Could be much worse: 

Snow pics, from our intrepid Gran Canarian correspondent, coming soon!

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Bold move at so far out.... 

That's not my forecast, just an analydsis of the 06z GFS, indeed the precip type matches fairly well with what I thought it would show. The words are "my take of 06z, not my personal forecast

As for forecasting it, I wouldn't like to say, I'm fairly confident its going to be mainly a rain event for the south now bar maybe some front edge stuff if the angle is right (I'd say I feel personally about 75-80% confident on that) but anything else and who knows, anything could happen. Even a 1ft in some southern location is possible on Mon-Tues...doesn't mean it WILL happen, but its a extreme end possibility.

So yeah a lot of uncertainties, the only thing I feel bold enough to call is a snow-rain event in the south, think it will be hard to miss it unless there is a dramatic shift in strength, location and angle of attack, all three need to change which at 120hrs is probably unlikely, even if you get 2/3.

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, kold weather said:

That's not my forecast, just an analydsis of the 06z GFS, indeed the precip type matches fairly well with what I thought it would show.

As for forecasting it, I wouldn't like to say, I'm fairly confident its going to be mainly a rain event for the south now bar maybe some front edge stuff if the angle is right (I'd say I feel personally about 75-80% confident on that) but anything else and who knows, anything could happen. Even a 1ft in some southern location is possible on Mon-Tues...doesn't mean it WILL happen, but its a extreme end possibility.

So yeah a lot of uncertainties, the only thing I feel bold enough to call is a snow-rain event in the south, think it will be hard to miss it unless there is a dramatic shift in strength, location and angle of attack, all three need to change which at 120hrs is probably unlikely, even if you get 2/3.

I won't be looking into until T+6 hours and I can see it on live surface pressure charts.. THATS how you call it