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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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50 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS continue to show promise.  Northern heights all over the place with a shallow trough over Europe.

As i posted earlier, the GEFS were the strongest signal for a while of High latitude blocking so at least some agreement there.

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Ecm at the top of its ensemble pack AGAIN from the critical time point regarding that low, so this is not over yet..

The mornung runs are always worse too as has been mentioned before. Onto the afternoon runs!!!!

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Anybody any stats on verification stats vs Morning run against the 12z?

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If I'm reading this right, ECM still suggesting several hours of widespread snow on Wednesday.....

image.thumb.png.7845de444b21318e195dd91da0a16c91.png

....but probably only light if it happens at all ??

Edited by Sky Full
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4 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

If I'm reading this right, ECM still suggesting several hours of widespread snow on Wednesday.....

image.thumb.png.7845de444b21318e195dd91da0a16c91.png

??

 

Yes, you are correct. Was just going to post this myself. Here is the rest of them.

ECMWF_114_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

ECMWF_126_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
.
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Lets see where the first morning run takes us..and the much talked feature...

@icon

icon-0-90.png

Edited by tight isobar

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8 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

The Spanish met have been bang on with their winter forecast of  HP dominated winter over Iberia 

that slug to our south west and the PV over North Eastern Canada has been the killer of this winter 

We've been robbed of our Beast from the East by the Pest in the West....

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As has been noted, ECM op looks a bit of an outlier so don't think we should be reading too much into that run. Looking across all models, the picture isn't as bad as some are making out. Plenty of interest being shown on GEFS, GEM ens and a couple of the lesser models. Don't take any run in isolation, particularly given the highly turbulent background. 

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This is becoming really tedious!

Chasing, chasing, chasing situations that seem less and less likely to verify.

Brutal cold over USA & Canada will probably scupper our chances for at least the next 2 weeks.

But, there's still time and we could see a significant change mid-February, lets hope.

I think most cold lovers on here would definitely settle for just one decent spell of severe cold and a covering of snow for 4-5 days?

Unlikely that we'll see a 'Beast from the East' this time, but don't give-up on Winter just yet people.   :cold:

 

 

 

Edited by snowblizzard
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5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Lets see where the first morning run takes us..and the much talked feature...

@icon

icon-0-90.png

Pretty much a carbon copy of its 0z

F3004792-D63E-43A4-B1F3-4826EC289E1E.png

11E80A84-E777-4FBC-B880-D293EC348D36.png

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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Lets see where the first morning run takes us..and the much talked feature...

@icon

icon-0-90.png

Another great looking ICON the low going further south than most models remember the ICON done rather well this past few weeks never went for the Easterly hopefully has this setup nailed also.

icon-0-114.png

icon-1-120.png

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3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Another great looking ICON the low going further south than most models remember the ICON done rather well this past few weeks never went for the Easterly hopefully has this setup nailed also.

icon-0-114.png

icon-1-120.png

Yup and the low is angled slightly better compared to 00z run!!

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Really interesting to see the models are becoming increasingly keen on there being the possibility of a fairly decent snow event in the southern half of the country between Monday-Tuesday. The GFS para has it, the eCM clearly has an impressive area of snow, the GEM has a version of it (not as well developed by still gives 3-5cms to some southern areas, though coverage isn't great) and quite a few GFS ensembles also showing this feature. I've not yet checked through the ECM ensembles.

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Yes..icon although not massively different has a better shape for sure..and is primmed 4 maybe-..

a more southerly track..

Remember we know a complete reversal via mods is not going 2 occur at some short stage....but in the given outs..miniscule tweeks- WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS!!

 

Edited by tight isobar
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10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Yes..icon although not massively different has a better shape for sure..and is primmed 4 maybe-..

a more southerly track..

Remember we know a complete reversal via mods is not going 2 occur at some short stage....but in the given outs..miniscule tweeks- WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS!!

 

Yes this! And this is where one recent event springs to mind. Until we’re at T48-72 regarding the low then I expect no less than more changes.

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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Yes this! And this is where one recent event springs to mind. Until we’re at T48-72 regarding the low then I expect no less than more changes.

Agree - The fax charts are going to become a key item to watch when it gets to this sort of timeframe. Even a transient spell of snow would do me right now 😁

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Indulge me if you will while I tell you a story...........................................

 

A long  long time ago in a galaxy far far away.................................. well alright then a county not so far away.

A young Dorset lad dreamed of snow, snow deep enough that you had to wade through it, but this poor lad lived in Dorset

a county where proper deep snow was rarer that rocking horse droppings.  He was 17 and all he had were the stories that his great granny told

him of  a fabled time in 1981 and 1891 and what his mum and dad told him about the time Siberia came to visit in  ye olde 1963, of which had the faintest

of toddler memories. As his 18th birthday approached he bemoaned his lot as yet another mild december and wet January eat away at his dream.

Just to rub it in January gave a massive dumping of snow the Scottish highlands cutting people off for days.

The young lad wailed why do the Jocks always get the best snow.

His 18th birthday came at the beginning  February and still it was a boring 10c and cloudy.

This is a mugs game he cried in frustatration as far as I,m concerned winter is over for ever .

but way up in the heavens the great god of winter the Super Snow Warrior  heard our boys cry and as if by magic a few days after his birthday

the great god of winter threw down a great big block to the mild westerly gunk and the wind blew from the east but the wicked witch of the westerly

wouldn't give up without a fight and did her best to put a spanner in the works of Super Snow Warrior but it was to no avail the more the she

threw mild moisture

towards our lad the more the  Super snow warrior kept his 850's just below freezing and so the winds blew and blew and then it snowed and

snowed and snowed for thirty hours it snowed by now it was past mid february and still it snowed. ..........................

Until one morning our Dorset lad woke up and the snow wasn't just deep enough to wade through it was so deep that he had to climb as high as the telegraph poles

in his road to get over it. Indeed the stuff of dreams

The young Dorset lad fell to his knees and gave thanks and cried out to the  Super Snow Warrior God of winter. 

How could I have been so stupid

Thank you oh great one I will never never ever give up on winter before the end of January again.

 

 

 

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Apologies to everyone because at the moment the output isn't going as I expected especially with regards to the low pressure. I fully expected this to clear SE rather than hang around like a bad smell. So sorry if I mislead anyone.

Still on a positive note +384 only takes us to the 10th Feb. My expectations are lower than some on here. For example if say mid Feb we had a decent 7 day cold spell with ice days and snowfall then I personally would be happy with that. The winter of Jan 87 was mainly mild/unsettled but still remember than winter fondly due to the 7 day cold spell in Jan.

Still looking at the scatter from the 1st Feb im not going to throw the towel in on this current period.

t850Cambridgeshire.png

No one should apologise for looking at the output and sharing their  thoughts👍👍 

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Looking through the model output, which shows several snow chances even for the south in the short to mid term, leaves me wondering, yet again, where on Earth the down beat comments from some posters have come from. Presumably it’s because further ahead some milder charts are showing. Yet when cold charts show at that range, those same people moan that it’s so far away and won’t happen. *Sigh*.

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It seems to me that we are still in the very early stages of learning about the effect of SSWs. Until we have a much more refined view that can successfully be programmed in to the model algorithms, we will be left chasing our tails during and post these events.

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The ECM ensembles broadly agree with the OP on the fat LP with pressure in the 970s/960s. However there are still variations and the north is still somewhat in with a shout. Hard to imagine the ensembles would be so wrong in that sort of time range.

Also worth noting the ECM ensembles have a decent number giving a decent snow event for the south on Mon-Tuesday like the operational, a lot of other models are also showing this on their 00z/06z output now.

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