Cold hunt - models and chat

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Perhaps its just disappointment that the low is going to ruin things- as you say, perhaps there is scope for hope come early Feb onwards..

Yes - in any case we need the 0z eps to lend support as well.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - in any case we need the 0z eps to lend support as well.

Indeed-

EC out shortly, lets see how it looks

PS looking at UKMO 96-120 i think there might be scope for some snow showers off the irish sea, we'll see.

 

Edited January 25, 2019 by northwestsnow

[feb1991blizzard]

Reasonable throughout apart from next few days, with a genuine non-marginal snow clustering towards the end.

[KTtom]

Ahhh, made coffee, sits down, hesitantly presses the ukmo 144 tab....heart sinks...thank God it's Friday!

Once again, were all chasing charts beyond day 6 for anything meaningfully away from the north which looks a good place to be...There are plenty of models, charts around that if you look hard enough you will find what your looking for, but a reality check that once again as we go from day 10 towards day 1 it's a constant watering down process...here is the ukmo..

 

[feb1991blizzard]

I tell you what there is though with the UKMO, albeit too west based, hence the trough not behaving like we need, a very sharp ridge gaining serious latitude, must do the PV no good whatsoever.

[KTtom]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I tell you what there is though with the UKMO, albeit too west based, hence the trough not behaving like we need, a very sharp ridge gaining serious latitude, must do the PV no good whatsoever.

Yea, looking at the bigger picture there is some serious WAA up western Greenland which surely would have resulted in the Atlantic high ridging into Greenland....

Edited January 25, 2019 by KTtom

[tinybill]

looking  at the gfs over  night run its poor to say  the  least  lets hope we can bin it  it might get better again  after a few runs  lets hope  keep the faith!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Para still fine as well, goes a bit pseudo-zonal in FI but even then it looks like it wants a HLB at the end.

[shaky]

Told u so loll again!!de javu moment last night about last weeks easterly and its struck again with the slider!!ecm is king!!!

[northwestsnow]

I would imagine sharon entropy remains quite high..

ec coming out now.. it might voltte face and have us all in euphoria

[lassie23]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Told u so loll again!!de javu moment last night about last weeks easterly and its struck again with the slider!!ecm is king!!!

Yes the models are looking shaky this morning shaky

[shaky]

Amazing differences at 120 hours on ukmo.compared to yesterdays 144 hour chart for same time!!the low just whizzes through the atlantic yesterday it was actually disruptiing near greenland!!

[offerman]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Told u so loll again!!de javu moment last night about last weeks easterly and its struck again with the slider!!ecm is king!!!

Spot on .  I can't predict weather or the charts and I aired caution a lot recently about getting too excited after the massive failure in the easterly build up.  Yet again another big letdown from the charts,   So many times when the cold is progged at day 5  onwards so many times it lets us down I wonder why that when my old is broke to day five onwards that always seems to come to fruition and never cold seems to surprise out of the blue and then hit it always seems to favour the mild for some reason . 

 

 It just shows you have to be so cautious don't get yourself too excited about cold showing up in day five and beyond and even less time than that it can still fail even at day three or four although most of the time that can be more reliable but certainly beyond day 45 seems best to ignore as it is such a let down   More often than not  .  We can be let down within 2 or 3 days of the cold but  we never seem to be let down with the mild and cold takes over at short notice . 

 Just be  cautious going forward everyone as it  seems to be a right downer  after four days or so.   Let's wait until the cold or deep cold shows at day two or three then that will become much more a higher probability . 

[joggs]

Well, as thought ukmo backing away from the favourable positioned merging of the low.

Ecm probably follow again imo(hope im wrong).

Good charts 7 days plus away though

One of those many let downs.

Edited January 25, 2019 by joggs

[joggs]

52 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Ahhh, made coffee, sits down, hesitantly presses the ukmo 144 tab....heart sinks...thank God it's Friday!

Once again, were all chasing charts beyond day 6 for anything meaningfully away from the north which looks a good place to be...There are plenty of models, charts around that if you look hard enough you will find what your looking for, but a reality check that once again as we go from day 10 towards day 1 it's a constant watering down process...here is the ukmo..

 

That would only produce on very high ground in Scotland imo.

Iceland is doing well though

Edited January 25, 2019 by joggs

[shaky]

Ecm lookin ominous at 120 hours!!to be fair it looks flat as early as 96 hours with that low near south west england more dveloped!!it seems as though ecm has become what the gfs was with the flatter outputs and gfs more amplified!!except ecm has been right most of the time lol

[That ECM]

Let’s hope that ecm is king because that is some starting point at t144

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM<>GFS @144

Edited January 25, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[shaky]

Game set match on the slider am afraid and there is no going back simple as!!make the most of whatever measely snow we get between sunday and wednesday!!story of the winter and the wait for something substantial goes on!!

[KTtom]

Ecm day 6....and we have a southerly flow! very similar to ukmo...

Back to looking for upstream patterns....and await the pooh polishers...

Edited January 25, 2019 by KTtom

[Weathizard]

Looks like another case of the ECM being the king of models, unfortunately. Nice ridge going up behind that LP mind you

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Ecm day 6....and we have a southerly flow! very similar to ukmo...

Back to looking for upstream patterns....and await the pooh polishes...

No question - that is a poor chart - well advertised though by the ECM and EPS.  Need to look for our next break now...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Classic west-based NAO on ECM 144

Edited January 25, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[mb018538]

We won’t get a ridge behind the low again....just as this was modelled badly and the eastern seaboard energy modelled wrong again, the next one will too. 

To hell with this wretched winter of false hope. We’ve had great charts appearing for over a month now and nothing has come out of it.

[blizzard81]

I am throwing in the towel now. It's just not going to happen this winter. Let's hope our fortunes are better next winter.