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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Put simply the ensembles are a total and utter mish mash of solutions, caution urged there’s a lot of ensembles that blown that low up into a bowling ball.

Im still goin with ecm mate!!think the morning runs are not gona be of good viewing!!would.love to be wrong but its just the way things are goin at the moment!

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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Put simply the ensembles are a total and utter mish mash of solutions, caution urged there’s a lot of ensembles that blown that low up into a bowling ball.

Still more that are cold and going for the slider solution though.

But your right, the ensembles don't tell us much other than maybe the spread of the options on the table.

Interesting little feature running across the country on late Monday, wonder if that is the trough that the ECM also advertised on its 12z run, may need to be watched as these features sometimes upgrade towards the event.

Shaky, you may well be right, like it was last week, I think tomorrow will be very important in getting a better fix of where this is going.

Edited by kold weather
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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Im still goin with ecm mate!!think the morning runs are not gona be of good viewing!!would.love to be wrong but its just the way things are goin at the moment!

Yeah the overnight runs always seem to be a bit let down frustratingly, hopefully tonight will buck the trend and we will all wake up to eye candy, and good weather charts too. ? 

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5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Too much 'banter' in the banter thread?....

Read the orange box at the top of the page. It has been clear enough for a while now. ?

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Just now, Mapantz said:

Read the orange box at the top of the page. It has been clear enough for a while now. ?

Yes, I know. That's why we have 2 model threads. This thread is for models and banter. Read the title. That's also quite clear.

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10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

@bluearmy or anyone else , surely this week two EC46 would be a proper scandi high with easterlys ?? Just wanna clear it up before I get to excited ? 

4C97A8F2-E320-4D6A-BB67-C6F1B78D6FF5.png

Are post it again . Hopefully someone will answer the above ? Pretty please . 

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Just now, bobbydog said:

Yes, I know. That's why we have 2 model threads. This thread is for models and banter. Read the title. That's also quite clear.

Quote

Although some banter is ok in here

 

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

Are post it again . Hopefully someone will answer the above ? Pretty please . 

That will be as per the EPS 0z run from 264 to 360 anyway, and the eps were worse on the 12z.

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3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Banter’s fine,  but off topic one liners filling up pages isn’t great for those wanting to keep up on what’s happening with latest runs?

There are two threads though Nick, personally, I really don't find it difficult to scroll past a few posts if they don't interest me.

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Are post it again . Hopefully someone will answer the above ? Pretty please . 

Looks more like the Russian high nosing in over scandi as apposed to true scandi Heights. 

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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Have you tried the NH view?, i feel it just gives you a better perspective of the whole thing, so you can see what PNA / EPO / AO etc pattern is showing, yes i much prefer the Wetter / Netweather North European / Atlantic view to meteociel's - yes i do think they are crap, for the reason you've stated, everything is totally out of perspective, it looks like a SE flow is showing sometimes when its an Easterly, but i only ever view in NH format these days and meteociel's graphics are in much better resolution, always prefer the surface in contours and the H500 in colours.

but you are welcome to join us down the pub.

Northern hemisphere view too small a scale to get the detail around the UK and all that blue scaling I still can’t get over.

I will accept the invite but let’s have reasoned debate about the models not churlish laddish o/t one liners I say.

back to the models, not convinced the Canadian vortex will relent with its influence on the Atlantic quickly, so not entirely convinced by the EC weeklies, mid-Atlantic ridging may struggle to sustain again unless the Canadian TPV weakens or moves away. However, entirely feasible we could get a few days of winds veering NEly at some point early Feb.

Edited by Nick F
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Hmmm if you want a wildcard a few of the ensembles are still producing a LP/wave along the system that comes westwards along the southern half the country. We have already seen that happen to an extent on Tuesday but the low formed a little too late to be of use for us. ECM also does have its signature, as does the ICON. So enough there to IMO warrant a close watch, probably a 30% risk IMO but if a low was to form could get a surprise dumping of snow late Monday and into Tuesday.

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Hmmm if you want a wildcard a few of the ensembles are still producing a LP/wave along the system that comes westwards along the southern half the country. We have already seen that happen to an extent on Tuesday but the low formed a little too late to be of use for us. ECM also does have its signature, as does the ICON. So enough there to IMO warrant a close watch, probably a 30% risk IMO but if a low was to form could get a surprise dumping of snow late Monday and into Tuesday.

Agree, could be some disturbances / waves / troughs in the strong NWly flow early next week,  before that slider low arriving late Weds, that won’t be picked up by the models yet, sometimes not until 48 hours out, but could bring a surprise snowfall somewhere.

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33 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I’m the opposite, prefer wetterzentrale as the Europe Atlantic view is a spherical  view rather than flat (Mercator) view on meteociel - which makes Greenland and Norway and anything toward north pole much larger than it actually is. 

Also find there’s too much scaling of heights in blue and purple which I find difficult to decipher the 500mb countours.

on another subject, seems to be a lot of off topic one liner chit chat in here filling up the pages, find it rather off putting posting in here, like I’ve invited myself as a total stranger into a lads conversation down the pub. 

Yes I to prefer the Wetterzentrale, although the map get distorted the further north you go, it looks more like a map to me, also on the ens graphs the average temp is shown as well as the ens mean.

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4 minutes ago, 'ColdIsBest' said:

graphe6_1000_226_47___.gif

 

Just as many members below and above freezing from day 6.

It could go either way.

Minimas would be much lower under snow fields, they are remarkable ensembles IMO we don’t live in Siberia for crying or loud!

Edited by Weathizard
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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Minimas would be much lower under snow fields, they are remarkable ensembles IMO we don’t live in Siberia for crying or loud!

31st/1st and 4th all look possible snow events for many imo. Quite a range going forward though but they Phillip flop that far ahead as much as this rooms atmosphere lol ☺

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