Cold hunt - models and chat

[Mucka]

34 minutes ago, icykev said:

If that does happen surely we would see a split with all that high pressure?

It is pretty much a split but the Atlantic ridge never really gets far enough into Greenland proper to force the Atlantic up the NW coast

[Mark Neal.]

6 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Assuming that's cm rather than inches...

CM's correct. 

[Stormeh]

4 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Am I the only one who actually is praying for the ECM 12z to verify? 

 

Scotland doesn't seem to exist on the recent GFS charts posted 

[shaky]

Gfs control further south than 12z!

[Mark Neal.]

38 minutes ago, Mark Neal. said:

Trip to Cadbury World might be on the to do list!

Yeah i'll come up @Sweatyman   The XC weather forecasts are derived by latest GFS data. so that is the GFS 18Z. 

[CSC]

GFS (P) with higher resolution has gone for snow as early as this coming Monday for the south..

There is now a trend towards a snow event or multiple snow events next week for many parts of the UK!

[Nick F]

32 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I can’t stand them either. 

Can’t understand why anyone would want to use them when Metiociel ones are far better. 

I’m the opposite, prefer wetterzentrale as the Europe Atlantic view is a spherical  view rather than flat (Mercator) view on meteociel - which makes Greenland and Norway and anything toward north pole much larger than it actually is. 

Also find there’s too much scaling of heights in blue and purple which I find difficult to decipher the 500mb countours.

on another subject, seems to be a lot of off topic one liner chit chat in here filling up the pages, find it rather off putting posting in here, like I’ve invited myself as a total stranger into a lads conversation down the pub. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Nick F

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

18z control run looks very similar to the 18z ICON run out to 120hrs, may help give us an idea of where the ICON was going afterwards based on the 18z GFS control run

Hi Kold 

Have you got a wife or a job because I swear you have been on here for every model run every frame for  last 15 days straight lol .  

Love your commentary tho

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs control further south than 12z!

VBery different evolution, the two lows never 'fuse' so to speak so the first one shoots ESE rapidly caught by the upper low to our NE. The same likely will happen to the 2nd one, though there is more lower thickness there so may not go quite as far south as the 1st wave.

Interesting that the 18z control has picked up the same thing the 18z ICON did, could be a new trend to watch for?

ICE COLD, I'm actually off work this week, so much less from me next week sadly!  

Edited January 24, 2019 by kold weather

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, Mark Neal. said:

Yeah i'll come up @Sweatyman   The XC weather forecasts are derived by latest GFS data. so that is the GFS 18Z. 

Will xcweather change to using GFS P when the old GFS becomes defunct. Any ideas? I find the website's predictions quite funny at times (much like the GFS...)

[JK1]

Why its so hard to get proper snow down here the struggle is real 

Damn snow shield 

Edited January 24, 2019 by JK1

[Mark Neal.]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

Will xcweather change to using GFS P when the old GFS becomes defunct. Any ideas? I find the website's predictions quite funny at times (much like the GFS...)

Yeah its an interesting one i would of thought it would change to GFS P. Yes it will be funny it changes run to run because its the GFS.

[Mucka]

Control would be very snowy for some to start February.

[karlos1983]

Weeks 2&3 look good

week 4 looks a bit west based 

but don’t worry week 6 all good

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

VBery different evolution, the two lows never 'fuse' so to speak so the first one shoots ESE rapidly caught by the upper low to our NE. The same likely will happen to the 2nd one, though there is more lower thickness there so may not go quite as far south as the 1st wave.

Interesting that the 18z control has picked up the same thing the 18z ICON did, could be a new trend to watch for?

ICE COLD, I'm actually off work this week, so much less from me next week sadly!  

We won’t need the commentary next week anyway mate because we’re all be window watching .

[Rocheydub]

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I’m the opposite, prefer wetterzentrale as the Europe Atlantic view is a spherical  view rather than flat (Mercator) view on meteociel - which makes Greenland and Norway and anything toward north pole much larger than it actually is. 

Also find there’s too much scaling of heights in blue and purple which I find difficult to decipher the 500mb countours.

100% agree. Wetter is my first port of call. 

[shaky]

Very good para at 144 hours!!low slidong!!

[Ice Day]

Lovely control run at 192 and 204, very snowy charts

 

 

[weather_it_will]

No sign of any serious cold weather yet. Cold yes, but nothing out the ordinary.

 

[ICE COLD]

@bluearmy or anyone else , surely this week two EC46 would be a proper scandi high with easterlys ?? Just wanna clear it up before I get to excited  

[kold weather]

Phew those 18z GFS were quite the battle to get through!

Anyway, plenty of exceptional runs, also quite a few runs that looks like the ECM 12z as well. I'd guesstimate its something liked 60-40 in favour of cold, but its the milder runs have increased by I'd say 4-6 runs compared to the previous suite. However the colder runs look even more severe on this run as well, so kinda even more polarised I spose!

Also remember in this set-up, probably -3C will be fine for snow, and if were to get a more true SE airflow, could go even higher than that easily.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I’m the opposite, prefer wetterzentrale as the Europe Atlantic view is a spherical  view rather than flat (Mercator) viewon meteociel - which makes Greenland and Norway and anything toward n pole much larger than it actually is. 

Also find there’s too much scaling of heights in blue and purple which I find difficult to decipher the 500mb countours.

on another subject, seems to be a lot of off topic one liner chit chat in here filling up the pages, find it rather off putting posting in here, like I’ve invited myself into lads conversation down the pub. 

Have you tried the NH view?, i feel it just gives you a better perspective of the whole thing, so you can see what PNA / EPO / AO etc pattern is showing, yes i much prefer the Wetter / Netweather North European / Atlantic view to meteociel's - yes i do think they are crap, for the reason you've stated, everything is totally out of perspective, it looks like a SE flow is showing sometimes when its an Easterly, but i only ever view in NH format these days and meteociel's graphics are in much better resolution, always prefer the surface in contours and the H500 in colours.

but you are welcome to join us down the pub.

[bobbydog]

10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I’m the opposite, prefer wetterzentrale as the Europe Atlantic view is a spherical  view rather than flat (Mercator) view on meteociel - which makes Greenland and Norway and anything toward north pole much larger than it actually is. 

Also find there’s too much scaling of heights in blue and purple which I find difficult to decipher the 500mb countours.

on another subject, seems to be a lot of off topic one liner chit chat in here filling up the pages, find it rather off putting posting in here, like I’ve invited myself as a total stranger into a lads conversation down the pub. 

Too much 'banter' in the banter thread?....

[Weathizard]

Put simply the ensembles are a total and utter mish mash of solutions, caution urged there’s a lot of ensembles that blown that low up into a bowling ball.

[icykev]

12 minutes ago, Mucka said:

It is pretty much a split but the Atlantic ridge never really gets far enough into Greenland proper to force the Atlantic up the NW coast

Shame mucka! Still living in hope it will eventually block. Thought last week all my prayers had come true. Now I'm in purgatory. Looks interesting next week