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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

ECM 46 is erm well a 46 day freeze - but thats always the case - its like Steve Murr has been programming it all winter.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Almost identical to the ECM and UKMO at 120hrs, all three have a 965-970mbs low angled SE just poff the far NE of Canada.

Energy syphooning off from the PV into the new LP as well on this run, just like the 12z ECM...

Edited by kold weather
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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Almost identical to the ECM and UKMO at 120hrs, all three have a 965-970mbs low angled SE just poff the far NE of Canada.

 

Deeper low being the key

the day 5 chart is slightly colder for the UK plenty of wintry shower packing in from the west

 

Edited by frosty ground
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Regardless of how this run turns out, its hard to deny upto 120hrs the 18z GFs has fallen inline with the ECM almost totally with regards to how the low evolves, actually VERY good agreement upto 120hrs between the UKMO/ECM and the 18z GFS.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Actually there are little hints of less cold and remember they (ec 46 weeklies) are showing  ensemble mean +ve anomalies in the Northern latitudes, not actual high heights, but the potential is there for a heck of a lot of snow if they came true, i think the way i am going to interpret those from now on this winter is as follows, when it starts to downgrade towards a +NAO, then its probably on to something, while those charts continue, i am going to assume further cold episodes with the euro trough, but NOT necessarily with Northern blocking.

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Actually there are little hints of less cold and remember they (ec 46 weeklies) are showing  ensemble mean +ve anomalies in the Northern latitudes, not actual high heights, but the potential is there for a heck of a lot of snow if they came true, i think the way i am going to interpret those from now on this winter is as follows, when it starts to downgrade towards a +NAO, then its probably on to something, while those charts continue, i am going to assume further cold episodes with the euro trough, but NOT necessarily with Northern blocking.

Which is what it’s been showing all along no high blocking

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Sky Full Accomplished

Sky Full

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

Snowy possibilities next week?

image.thumb.png.0d43d30f97f421f2d0681d5e0f794df1.png  image.thumb.png.c437c7558cd3fb82afa2a5a87b4d644f.png

image.thumb.png.cfbadc3204303889eca28af01d0ed2dc.png  image.thumb.png.e69a3c37af3fa258d5e535e749bd62d0.png

M4 corridor to be buried....   image.gif.fdec22215015ba9441c68e8adaa1e8cb.gif

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Appears the meteociel site is down. Does this mean I have to go on the dreaded Wetterzentrale? 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Which is what it’s been showing all along no high blocking

It hasn't been showing it exactly your'e right, but a mean with a 51 member suite with such ridiculous anomalies is suggestive of it.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Sky Full said:

Snowy possibilities next week?

image.thumb.png.0d43d30f97f421f2d0681d5e0f794df1.png  image.thumb.png.c437c7558cd3fb82afa2a5a87b4d644f.png

image.thumb.png.cfbadc3204303889eca28af01d0ed2dc.png  image.thumb.png.e69a3c37af3fa258d5e535e749bd62d0.png

M4 corridor to be buried....   image.gif.fdec22215015ba9441c68e8adaa1e8cb.gif

changed on 18Z though

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Better than the 12z ECM on this run, not as good as the 12z GFS in terms of the pattern.

Upper low is strengthening over that low at 144hrs but luckily the PV lobe to our north is still holdinbg strong which is keeping it as the dominant circulation for now, the ECM lost this too quick for us.

Should be ok for the north, going to be too far north for the south however I think, at least to start with.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

I think the yanks have crashed the GFS - salivating over those brutal cold uppers whilst we sweat it out over a possible wet snow puddle

Edited by blizzard81
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Weegaz Community Regular

Weegaz

Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner
Posted
1 minute ago, Sky Full said:

Snowy possibilities next week?

image.thumb.png.0d43d30f97f421f2d0681d5e0f794df1.png  image.thumb.png.c437c7558cd3fb82afa2a5a87b4d644f.png

image.thumb.png.cfbadc3204303889eca28af01d0ed2dc.png  image.thumb.png.e69a3c37af3fa258d5e535e749bd62d0.png

M4 corridor to be buried....   image.gif.fdec22215015ba9441c68e8adaa1e8cb.gif

12z run, 18z outputting now, hopefully looks as good

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

Appears the meteociel site is down. Does this mean I have to go on the dreaded Wetterzentrale? 

Due to it being a cold ❄ run it's Frozen 

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Appears the meteociel site is down. Does this mean I have to go on the dreaded Wetterzentrale? 

https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=gfs,gfs,gfs,gfs&region=eng&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=18&step=132&plottype=10&lat=51.761&lon=-1.201&skewtstep=0 Is Handy. 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Well the 18z GFS gets away with it and we have a home run at 156hrs.

Still probably wrong side of marginal for the south, but a north of M4 snow event (sorry about the M4, but in this case, its probably true!) but with the cold as close as it is on the 18z GFS may well see it transition back again.

FWIW, I think the UKMO evolves like the 18z GFS rather than the ECM but who knows!

Edited by kold weather
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

GF18z showed a stonker! Which made Meteociel crash!

view it on netweather chart viewer, miles behind though

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, kold weather said:

Well the 18z GFS gets away with it and we have a home run at 156hrs.

Still probably wrong side of marginal for the south, but a north of M4 snow event (sorry about the M4, but in this case, its probably true!) but with the cold as close as it is on the 18z GFS may well see it transition back again.

Kold  your not just hanging off every operational your hanging off every frame lol.

Chill mate

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