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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

you need to build a wall first ....

Oh yeah the shut down...

Any brickies in here? ?

What a damn shame, would of been just the situation for it.

Ah well, obviously ECM outcome is plausible and no doubt that sort of outcome was pretty well represented in this mornings ensembles (seen the chart not clusters or thumbnails)

Just feel it is worse case scenario - then again we always hit the jackpot there.

 

Edited by Mucka
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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Horrible ecm after 144 hours!!low just fills over the uk!!

That's what the charts show, but reliable is T120 at best, plenty of time in future runs for that low to become weaker and more elongated, if it is, indeed part of the eventual solution at all.  I'm happy with the ECM 12z as far as the reliable goes.

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The ECM clearly shows how important getting the pattern sufficiently se is.

The rounded low stuck over the UK is poor for snow prospects , any cold gets mixed out and it’s crucial to have that shallower and to the se.

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Just now, Lloyds32 said:

Happy? How could I from a cold perspective, not sure your point.

At 168 we don't want the LP it that position.

Good charts you're invisible, a slight backtrack to mild - you're in like a mild warm breeze. Nothing wrong with liking mild mate, just maybe not the thread for you, unless enjoying others disappointment is your thing? if so you have mates here.

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Ironically, the run delivers a bit more snow than the 00z before the low comes in and also plenty over n England (drifting north) once it’s over us 

the uppers at day 8 are at the 90th percentile compared to the 00z mean over the Home Counties so hopefully this run is too far north 

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17 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gifecm 144..

-bathed-..

Any precip away from tip cornwall..and most ireland will be SNOW...

never gonna be correct at this time frame...but to highlight...as a snap the above stands!!! Firmly..

bathed in -6 uppers does not a country wide snow event make !!

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Probably get the usual mutterings for posting this, but JMA sticking to it's guns big time! T192:

image.thumb.jpg.f53ef2458daa58a8ce3af4c4741bab82.jpg

All in all positive 12 suite.  Only ICON and GEM party poopers, the rest including all the main models show some promise.  How much promise, and on what timescale needs more runs to firm up, but the chase is very much on tonight...

Edited by Mike Poole
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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM clearly shows how important getting the pattern sufficiently se is.

The rounded low stuck over the UK is poor for snow prospects , any cold gets mixed out and it’s crucial to have that shallower and to the se.

Yeah, its not as extreme as the ICON or the GEM is though with that pattern.

BA is right, the flow is tilted positive, can't believe I didn't spot that on the 144hrs chart looking at the upper low positioning now its quite obvious.

Hopefully its towards the top end of the ensembles.

216hrs isn't bad, uust a shame the cold is blasted away so much!

Edited by kold weather
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5 minutes ago, Gadje said:

Good charts you're invisible, a slight backtrack to mild - you're in like a mild warm breeze. Nothing wrong with liking mild mate, just maybe not the thread for you, unless enjoying others disappointment is your thing? if so you have mates here.

Certainly nothing good about 168 for snow prospects. Mild air mixed out. Its what the model shows.

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2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Scandinavian iceland link up heights maybe 

ECM1-216 (2).gif

Yes kind of redeems itself at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.65e27f6d4df108a9418f36092e6bbf33.jpg

I am sure versions of that evolution are possible that has a much weaker mild incursion.  But 10 days out is way beyond the reliable.  

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Still can’t see where the change  to very much  cold weather withEasterly or North East winds is going to happen,all the cold air has gone from the continent now !.

Might have to admit that the chance of deep cold air hitting the U.K. won’t be happening this winter.

 

Edited by SLEETY
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Unless you’re a mountain goat the ECM is average fair day 6 onwards and nothing special .

The rounded low before hand lifts the cold out from the east and ne and even though the day ten tries to repair some of the damage it could have looked so much better with a shallower feature moving se and developing low pressure over southern Europe.

 

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2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Still can’t see where the change  to very much  cold weather withEasterly or North East winds is going to happen,all the cold air has gone from the continent now !.

Might have to admit that the chance of deep cold air hitting the U.K. won’t be happening this winter.

Certainly the feeling I'm getting too...the Canadian PV lobe just needs to shut up shop.

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Better end of the run with the Scandi high developing, unfortunately a bit of a long road to get any meaningful cold 850hpa temperatures down from 240hrs onwards, certainly nothing like it could be with less intrusion from the SW.

So a mixed bag, a much milder interlude and lasts longer, but with more snow beforehand and also greater potential afterwards.

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