Jump to content
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 12.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

Posted Images

Very good 144hrs, though probably would signal rain after a brief snow front edge for the south. Still the MAIN thing is getting the pattern in and its a very good sign from the ECM.

I'll gladly take it at this stage.

Ridge coming in behind the low should help to slow the PV over Canada down a little as well and keep the LP on its way ESE.

  • Like 2
  • Sad 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gifecm 144..

-bathed-..

Any precip away from tip cornwall..and most ireland will be SNOW...

never gonna be correct at this time frame...but to highlight...as a snap the above stands!!! Firmly..

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

168hrs probably not the best placed LP in the world I have to say. Its not a disaster by any means unless that LP to the SW deepens too much, just means a slightly longer mild interlude for ALL.

However I'm still reasonably hopeful on this run that the LP swings around and rotates off to the SE. Its not as bad as people think it is.

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I must say I was rather nonplussed about the UKMO 144 earlier for the same reason as what we’ve just seen with that ECM 168 - all looks a bit ICONesque to me

still there will be more twists to come 

EDIT: I refer to short-mid term prospects when I say that - longer term the potential remains, but how long have we been saying that for now?

Edited by snowking
  • Like 5
  • Sad 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very good 144hrs, though probably would signal rain after a brief snow front edge for the south. Still the MAIN thing is getting the pattern in and its a very good sign from the ECM.

I'll gladly take it at this stage.

Ridge coming in behind the low should help to slow the PV over Canada down a little as well and keep the LP on its way ESE.

 

9 minutes ago, Matty M said:

EC T144 not ideal but I will reserve judgement until T168

Here is why it's impossible for newbies to learn anything. 

Good or bad why? Where are the charts and explanations as to why they are good or bad? 

2 posts, next to each other, within 30 seconds of each other - saying TOTALLY the opposite. 

Come on guys. 

3 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Ouch 168 ECM

Thankfully it's at T168 - if even 10% of those had verified this winter we would still be digging out and praying for rain. 

Patterns with high verification at T72 is what we should be focusing on. The rest will be gone, or alternative in 12 hours time. 

Edited by PolarWarsaw
  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

 Bit surprised how happy the mood was with day 6 ec op .... looked positively tilted to me 

the flip side is the post profile on this run is an improvement 

Edited by bluearmy
  • Sad 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Will be interesting to compare the UKMO 168 chart with that ECM 168 if anyone has access to it.

My hunch would be the low would be less developed, would have NW/SE tilt rather than SW/NE tilt and be further SW which would be a lot better.

Could be just rose tinted glasses but I'm not sure about that progression 144/168 from ECM.

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...