Cold hunt - models and chat

[bluearmy]

Lets not lose sight of things here - the gem and icon are variations on a theme - last week we couldn’t get all the ops to agree on diving the trough on the same run.

There was always one which refused to go south. There is clearly a chance that the trough could phase and pivot ne ..... hopefully by tomorrow we will have clarity on that but given that it’s the back end of next week we probably can’t be confident until Sunday ...... the trend is definitely for the strength of the Atlantic  jet on a west to east trajectory to be slowing ......and we have opportunities for snowfall before the period in question so relax a bit !

[winterof79]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I spotted a -14 in scotland at day 9 GFS..

Vicious cold and its hardly barbie weather elsewhere in uk&Ireland..

GFS always filters in snow cover

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

President of the US- personally i could think of one or two other names but note to oneself, its models not politics..:-)

Well it is the Hold Cold Hunt thread...? Oh yes, GFS, right...I'll pass on the T+372!

 

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Chances are less than 10% especially after the ICONs change at just 96-120 on the 06z run---

Certainly a small risk, but then again the easterly would have had similar failure risk at this time as well and we know it was that 10% that won out of that occasion. Never underestimate our ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

MUCH better run for the southern crew

GFS that is, UKMO potentially very good for many..

Aye, this feature appearing on last few GFS runs, could do with it further north, but as we know, these tend to track further south nearer the time

[shaky]

Gfs control same as op but a bit further north!!snowstorm for midlands and wales at 144 hours!

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

There was always one which refused to go south. There is clearly a chance that the trough could phase and pivot ne ..... hopefully by tomorrow we will have clarity on that but given that it’s the back end of next week we probably can’t be confident until Sunday ...... the trend is definitely for the strength of the Atlantic  jet on a west to east trajectory to be slowing ......and we have opportunities for snowfall before the period in question so relax a bit !

Yep, and it was that one that turned out to be right

Anyway several opportunities as you mention, some of the models are still toying with perhaps back edge snow as the front clears out on Sunday, the models seem to be at least trending that way for say the east coast/East Anglia.

Also I'm fairly confident that providing we manage to get that NW on Sunday/Monday that it would be yet another active flow, so good chance of a trough or two being embedded in the flow. Who knows, 29 years with no snowfall from a NW could be broken at long last if that does come off...nah who am I kidding

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs control same as op but a bit further north!!snowstorm for midlands and wales at 144 hours!

Aye, better track shaky, for us members north of the m4

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, better track shaky, for us members north of the m4

Oh and another snowstorm mate but this time further south at 174 hours!please ecm give us a run like the gfs!!!dont spoil the mood in here

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, better track shaky, for us members north of the m4

.....and...

You know it will be massively different...

Even by tmoz 6z!!!!     (Likely)

 

Edited January 24, 2019 by tight isobar

[Ice Day]

Can't post charts, at work, but the GFSP is looking very good out to 162

Edit, looks like a snowy solution for many with improving Greenland heights.

Edited January 24, 2019 by Ice Day

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs control same as op but a bit further north!!snowstorm for midlands and wales at 144 hours!

Yep, its a good run as it keeps the cold nice and close by for all and gives a good spell of snow.

The exact location of the low has yet to be decided, so for now just the trend of the low developing in that way is Most important. Not too fussed where it ends up providing it doesn't usher in a large WSW fetch!

I just know the ECM is going to throw a curveball, that's just how this winter has been so far!

Edited January 24, 2019 by kold weather

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, shaky said:

Oh and another snowstorm mate but this time further south at 174 hours!please ecm give us a run like the gfs!!!dont spoil the mood in here

UKMO though not going with the runner on wednesday, wonder what EC will suggest, could be Thursday though, looking out west

 

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Can't post charts, at work, but the GFSP is looking very good out to 162

Yep

[shaky]

Gfs p is an absolute beauty!!!!

[tight isobar]

Great para..

Wants southern england on shutdown-

Really interesting watching these features in track and trace over coming days...and lets be honest...its any 1s guess atm....

Edited January 24, 2019 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

It sounds like GEFS re going to be a stonking set again..

[kold weather]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

UKMO though not going with the runner on wednesday, wonder what EC will suggest, could be Thursday though, looking out west

 

It will be slightly slower but it will get there, the key thing to note is the areas of purple (ish!), as long as the NE one is stronger, that will be the dominant feature in any fujiwara and ensure that complex moves broadly E/ESE. The runs that go wrong phase move some of the PV energy from Canada into the Atlantic and then starts to deepen, meaning by the time it gets to that point, the westerly area is stronger, so that means it rotates towards ENE instead and shunts in SW/WSW winds.

Ensembles still a little all over the shop but still snowy for most places on all but 2 of the ensemble runs. A couple are more northern based but even they do bleed down colder air into the flow pretty quickly (within 24hrs) so they aren't a disaster. Roughly 20% of the 23 members (including OP+para) phrase the low, so similar levels to the 00z ECM ensembles.

By the way, a couple of blizzards show up on the GFS ensembles, at varying times. Small risk but it is as much a chance as it going completely wrong, due to the high risk, high reward nature of this, the ceiling is very high....the bottom...very low!

Edited January 24, 2019 by kold weather

[PolarWarsaw]

14 minutes ago, shaky said:

Oh and another snowstorm mate but this time further south at 174 hours!please ecm give us a run like the gfs!!!dont spoil the mood in here

Spoil what mood mate? We've got no cross model agreement of anything inside T72 or T48 - until that happens, then take everything as anything but gospel. 

Models have told us this all wintrer. 

[shaky]

13 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep, its a good run as it keeps the cold nice and close by for all and gives a good spell of snow.

The exact location of the low has yet to be decided, so for now just the trend of the low developing in that way is Most important. Not too fussed where it ends up providing it doesn't usher in a large WSW fetch!

I just know the ECM is going to throw a curveball, that's just how this winter has been so far!

Nerve wracking times!!if it slides the low like gfs then game on!!without the 168 hour chart on ukmo we just dont know how it evolves from 144 hours!!still good though!!crazy how that low slackens significantly between 120 and 144 hours on ukmo!!

[kold weather]

Just now, PolarWarsaw said:

Spoil what mood mate? We've got no cross model agreement of anything inside T72 or T48 - until that happens, then take everything as anything but gospel. 

Models have told us this all wintrer. 

Yeah this is a far mpopre complex situation than what we had with the easterly and so we may find that even a less than optimal ECM output may well still do the job. Several of the GFS ensembles looked poor at 144hrs but by 192hrs they are looking quite snowy, so plenty to play for!

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It sounds like GEFS re going to be a stonking set again..

Yeah its a really solid set, but with still quite a lot of variation, other than to inform us of what is possible, not sure they are too much benefit!

Still, some REAL eye candy, I'm sure a couple of those would give some 1ft type snowfall for someone.

[The4Seasons]

58 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Artic high starting to influence Scandi.

Also another slider!

It might even snow in north Africa with that chart

[northwestsnow]

london GEFS.

Edited January 24, 2019 by northwestsnow

[winterof79]

Fat Flabby stagnant Lows wollowing in our own cold pool.....Just the thought makes me salivate....AT 144Z

In those scenarios features crop up at will

Edited January 24, 2019 by winterof79