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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Better charts regarding easterly early week from ecm and icon!!then late on in the run if it comes to true we get plenty of snow and cold!!

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Just a reminder as the model watch gets going today - we have the focused model thread as well now - banter and off topic post free, just model discussion!

Please feel free to cross-post your model thoughts in there, as an idea on how some people may want to use the threads - perhaps commentate on the runs as they come out in here, and post a more full summary to both once the run (or a set of runs) have completed. 

 

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The mean for the 26th to 27th is definitely increasing at the moment on the London graph

Yesterday 06z to 18z

06.thumb.gif.2e1400dba32769ac7f8a3aa87cb95d72.gif12.thumb.gif.1019f89b3a3c16da80eda88efbab30b6.gif18.thumb.gif.d686f64dee64ae334cf564a49728dca0.gif

Today 00z

graphe3_1000_311_148___.thumb.gif.f2d4f298528a8377de65c43ba5e5520d.gif.a5eae8210a3acc82088b5b1aa8b21a2c.gif

 

 

 

Edited by Summer Sun

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The model spread even at close range really is baffling. We might have to wait until mid week before the situation clears.

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2 hours ago, Weathizard said:

Yesterday we had the Giraffe, seahorse and the dog... now we have a rabbit, very strange vortex profiles being modelled

29B06968-A1BA-4911-8618-2A1CA47A2CAB.png

Looks more like a Hare to me, where are the greyhounds, on the 12z I guess? Its as if the models are taking the pish out of us right now!🤣

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Guys, did the ICON update this morning yet?

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2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

The models are still extremely poor.in forecasting anything that isn't Atlantic driven weather. Despite the huge increase in computer power they have been all over the place recently

Looking at all these amazing runs that were showing easterlies sliders huge snowstorms, the only problem was the easterly hadn't verified in the first place 🙄

I couldn't disagree more, SLEETY😁: the models have been great at 'forecasting' said events...It's just that our wonderful British weather has steadfastly refused to follow orders!😁

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The mean for the 26th to 27th is definitely increasing at the moment on the London graph

Yesterday 06z to 18z

06.thumb.gif.2e1400dba32769ac7f8a3aa87cb95d72.gif12.thumb.gif.1019f89b3a3c16da80eda88efbab30b6.gif18.thumb.gif.d686f64dee64ae334cf564a49728dca0.gif

Today 00z

graphe3_1000_311_148___.thumb.gif.f2d4f298528a8377de65c43ba5e5520d.gif.a5eae8210a3acc82088b5b1aa8b21a2c.gif

 

 

 

Agreed and then the trend is down👍

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The mean for the 26th to 27th is definitely increasing at the moment on the London graph

Yesterday 06z to 18z

06.thumb.gif.2e1400dba32769ac7f8a3aa87cb95d72.gif12.thumb.gif.1019f89b3a3c16da80eda88efbab30b6.gif18.thumb.gif.d686f64dee64ae334cf564a49728dca0.gif

Today 00z

graphe3_1000_311_148___.thumb.gif.f2d4f298528a8377de65c43ba5e5520d.gif.a5eae8210a3acc82088b5b1aa8b21a2c.gif

 

 

 

Though the mean after this point despite the spread does look a little colder after this point compared to last night's run

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The mean for the 26th to 27th is definitely increasing at the moment on the London graph

Yesterday 06z to 18z

06.thumb.gif.2e1400dba32769ac7f8a3aa87cb95d72.gif12.thumb.gif.1019f89b3a3c16da80eda88efbab30b6.gif18.thumb.gif.d686f64dee64ae334cf564a49728dca0.gif

Today 00z

graphe3_1000_311_148___.thumb.gif.f2d4f298528a8377de65c43ba5e5520d.gif.a5eae8210a3acc82088b5b1aa8b21a2c.gif

 

 

 

This is a. Very good sign remaining cold no matter what then yes?? 

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1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Agreed and then the trend is down👍

I wish my girlfriend had the same attitude

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1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

Would normally not put a one liner on without charts - however given the paywall status of the EC Ens and clusters, all I can say is think - weeklies. Today will be a good day 🙂

The roller coaster is firmly back on the tracks and heading for the winter theme park.

Morning lorenzo.when will this show on the mo?tia

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Hopefully someone will pop them up when the Icelandic site updates.. sorry nor sure what time that is at.

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Just now, lorenzo said:

Hopefully someone will pop them up when the Icelandic site updates.. sorry nor sure what time that is at.

The clusters or the weeklies? Not sure if the weeklies show on the Icelandic site but I could be wrong

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7 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Would normally not put a one liner on without charts - however given the paywall status of the EC Ens and clusters, all I can say is think - weeklies. Today will be a good day 🙂

The roller coaster is firmly back on the tracks and heading for the winter theme park.

Oooh, you tease!  Definitely feels like things are back on the up this morning.  Viewing all the models it looks like some Atlantic troughing to establish around 28-30th January with a resulting northerly/northeasterly for the UK thereafter...... 

Let's see what the 6z has to say.

Edited by Ice Day

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

I wish my girlfriend had the same attitude

Maybe she's tired of what looks like a good high pressure pointing North, then it turns out to be a toppler?😉

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When I consider the FI cold spells down the years, the ones which have translated future promise into present action, there really isn't a huge amount in the current models to make me sit up. Consider T168, which many veterans on here would see as the sanity cut-off:

1638976926_ScreenShot2019-01-20at09_24_22.thumb.png.5e12081407bebaa96bfa90c8b9cf45eb.png

That's not exactly dramatic.

It's not until out into the far flung realms that anything cold shows up, and even that's a bit 'meh.' T268:

1313635003_ScreenShot2019-01-20at09_25_10.thumb.png.b7144abd45479dba35bcacbbfee02213.png

 

Alice was told that she had jam for tea yesterday and she may have jam tomorrow.

The problem for Alice, and ourselves, is that we'd quite like jam today please.

 

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4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Thanks a lot, I'm no expert but that looks pretty good still, right?

The 0z had some kind of northeasterly towards the end of the week but the 6z doesn't.

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GFS trend over the next week seems to be picking up some slightly less cold in the far west with some trending closer to average even marginally above locally.

For the vast majority though we remain below average

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.8a67fc5bbacc238bb92bb53fbac69c08.png

D7 we're widely above average

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.c78b0b5e25ffdb499585cdf017e33d78.png

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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I do believe the next weeks will it won’t it will be a distant memory very soon! We are almost within reach of what should be some mouth watering charts! Put your seatbelts on! 

But does distant memory mean the mouth watering charts are greeted as gospel and anyone who posts a cautionary post gets piled on by the mob?  Maybe better if We do remember them? 

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