Cold hunt - models and chat

[BlueHedgehog074]

5 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

I think it was just very disheartening for everyone who had their hopes up last weekend and everyone's mood suffered as a consequence, the last thing any of us want in these forums is bickering from highly frustrated people who at the end of the day, want the same thing..

 

But alas, that's all I have to say on the topic because apparently my posts "aren't model related enough" recently, so I will hush from this point forward until there's actually a model to review again.

 

Onto the 6z

To be fair, while not totally model related, think your viewpoint will be echoed by others who’ve been frustrated by the up and down nature of the models recently. Can be an exhausting feeling keeping up to date with all the runs all the time and worrying what they’re going to show.

Compared to what they were showing yesterday on their 12Z runs, the likes of the GFS and ECMWF this morning seem to be somewhat of an improvement for cold conditions, dropping Low Pressure systems far enough East to the South of the U.K drawing in chillier 850 hPa air from North and East. Not quite North-Pole conditions where making igloos would really be that possible. Could also do with stronger blocking to our North. Still, though, feels like the overall theme is their for North-West to South-East tracking Lows with some amplification of High Pressure around the Atlantic/Western Atlantic area at times. But suspect their will be a fair more changes coming our way - especially with the way models continue to handle the behaviour of the Low Pressure systems next week.

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ian Browns hacked feb’s account

ECM is quality. Theme of all 3 is good. Forecasting nightmare which is when surprises happen.

Blimey bringing back Ian Brown, that's a deep cut of forum lore! Him and his large teapot...which 2009-2011 rather destroyed.

HA m.o.d.e.r.n w.i.n.t.e.r being on the banned list!

Edited January 24, 2019 by kold weather

[booferking]

Icon run is cold and snow absolutely anywhere Saturday night onwards.

[Frosty.]

I'm really liking the Ecm 00z ensemble mean for next week, cold becomes entrenched and there's a very good chance of snow events, much less marginal than this week!

[weirpig]

well having looked at the 0z runs  for me in the near to mid term they are probably the runs of the season.  Not deep cold  but enough for many to see snow  and quite alot of it  with lows engaging the cold air   all i all very decent  and something enjoyable to watch unfold over the coming days 

[Tim Bland]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thats the GEFS and EPS trending milder at the end now, expect the 30 dayer to dropthe E'ly or NE wording either today or tomorrow.

Long range GEFS and the EPS have been awesome since about mid December ....so that tells you how accurate they are! most parts have had little more than a sleety shower so far this winter. FI currently starts around day 4 so I wouldn’t expect any major changes. Their long range forecast is based around MJO / EC46 and other background signals such as current downwelling of the SSW. I agree that we are now running out of time but we are still in the game!

[That ECM]

Just now, shaky said:

Any charts from icon!!!96 120 hour charts if possible!!sorry am just driving lol!

 

[Weathizard]

I’m often one to flame it but credit where credit is due, the ICON has been remarkably consistent in the last 36-48 hours or so in its output.

[kold weather]

Not a bad ICON run, with a marginal snow event as the frontal system comes eastwards on the 28th of Jan. Doesn't leave a huge amount though, probably 1-3cms for most, but its something to watch.

[Stu_London]

Seems to me that a lot of people still get sucked in by the darker blues and purples in use on the metociel site. Just because there graphics look more impressive for cold doesn’t make the event any less marginal

[That ECM]

T78 gfs, Scotland and the ne

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T78 gfs, Scotland and the ne

Followed by the 84 for more of England 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Seems to me that a lot of people still get sucked in by the darker blues and purples in use on the metociel site. Just because there graphics look more impressive for cold doesn’t make the event any less marginal

Are they?

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T78 gfs, Scotland and the ne

There is also quite a,ot of snow for NE Scotland in particular from the ICON. I know the eCM also has been showing quite large falls tin the Ne of Scotland. The whole lot then starts to shift southwards bringing more of Scotland intbo play.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Seems to me that a lot of people still get sucked in by the darker blues and purples in use on the metociel site. Just because there graphics look more impressive for cold doesn’t make the event any less marginal

Of course it will be marginal  it very rarely is anything else.  But if the charts as shown verify  Places (the more north the better) will see snow.  as the lows slide towards the UK     Further South  will need some further corrections

[Premiere Neige]

32 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm really liking the Ecm 00z ensemble mean for next week, cold becomes entrenched and there's a very good chance of snow events, much less marginal than this week!

This ties in with the thoughts of BBC forecast from earlier in the week as they suggested an increased snow risk next week.

[Stu_London]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Are they?

In my experience yes. Not everyone. But some people

[That ECM]

Just now, kold weather said:

There is also quite a,ot of snow for NE Scotland in particular from the ICON. I know the eCM also has been showing quite large falls tin the Ne of Scotland. The whole lot then starts to shift southwards bringing more of Scotland intbo play.

The fine details of where the low goes and who gets what will go down to t12

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

In my experience yes. Not everyone. But some people

The dark blues are only of use if surface pressure is above 1000, preferably >1015 if you want brutal cold, never think the dark blues are good if in the centre of a low, you probably need the purples to suffice and even that might not do.

Edited January 24, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[frosty ground]

Deeper Low over the southern Tip of Greenland producing a bigger Ridge ahead of it, just means a greater risk of warm sector later on

[shaky]

Here we go again o6z once again leading us up the garden path with more amplification around greenland at 120 hours!!lol

[alexisj9]

10 hours ago, kold weather said:

I've never seen snow from a NW, trust me, I'd remember if I had (I've been on here for 15 years, never happened to me, you must be lucky to be on the 'flight' path of a Chesire streamer then! They always used to miss me when I lived in Essex, though I often saw the convective cloud tops.

And no I never dismissed anything, indeed I said that the timing would be important and that the longer it lasted the better the chances for snow would be, especially in the east of the region. It was never really on for my region unfortunately due to it coming a little too early.

If I'm critical its only bwcause I know that plenty of areas are going to get snow, and I will get 0 from this set-up, call it jealousy I spose!

Then again Daniel, I do hope I wrong! Prove me wrong NW!

Neither have I since I moved to dover, but, I did Tuesday night through to yesterday, and there's still some about.

[Methuselah]

Once the big low gets away, slider heaven awaits?

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Seems to me that a lot of people still get sucked in by the darker blues and purples in use on the metociel site. Just because there graphics look more impressive for cold doesn’t make the event any less marginal

Good point there.yes generally anything from the north west would need a bit of altitude and good dp<s 850s ete.Not sure until nearer the time how heavy precipitation will be ete but another factor.Heading towards end of January and discussing marginal snow eh after all the last six weeks of hype!!.ecm this morning looks pretty good to me midlands north even to lower elevations but could all change by tom !!! uto ftb

[frosty ground]

The low has brought the milder air further north