Cold hunt - models and chat

[nick sussex]

A big improvement from the ECM.

Lower heights over southern Europe and a ridge to the north .  The UKMO looks similar at day 6 with the key features .

We could still do though with a shallower feature at day 8 on the ECM which will slide more .

The GFS isn’t as good and has a different evolution.

The key timeframe being between day 5 and 6  and how the models handle that troughing over the UK.

 

[markw2680]

27 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Only one thing to say. Boom.

It’s certainly isn’t worthy of a boom until it’s within 24hours imo

too many things can and will go wrong in the uk south of Manchester in particular 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

It’s certainly isn’t worthy of a boom until it’s within 24hours imo

too many things can and will go wrong in the uk south of Manchester in particular 

Manchester is far worse than Birmingham for snow - its much less elevation and sheltered by big hills here to the East.

[Guest Delete Me]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Manchester is far worse than Birmingham for snow - its much less elevation and sheltered by big hills here to the East.

Spot on - Stoke is the same in the sense its hindered by the peak district

[JBMWeatherForever]

Big improvements all round overnight ! Lets hope it continues. A slight delay in the near term, but hopefully this time it will be worth it !

[markw2680]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Manchester is far worse than Birmingham for snow - its much less elevation and sheltered by big hills here to the East.

I did say if you was south of there i didn’t specifically say Manchester as in they get loads

[Seasonality]

39 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

All roads lead to cold it seems. I don't think we should be taking any notice of the charts for 2 weeks time, it changes every single run.

True, especially about the changes every single run. The ECM in particular is very different compared to its previous run in FI, when isn't it it lately? If we stick to the 144h timeframe and less then thats the best bet, and plenty to play with too!

[BlackburnChris]

1 minute ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Big improvements all round overnight ! Lets hope it continues. A slight delay in the near term, but hopefully this time it will be worth it !

No delay in Snow chances . All models look Wintry next week.

[shaky]

24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A big improvement from the ECM.

Lower heights over southern Europe and a ridge to the north .  The UKMO looks similar at day 6 with the key features .

We could still do though with a shallower feature at day 8 on the ECM which will slide more .

The GFS isn’t as good and has a different evolution.

The key timeframe being between day 5 and 6  and how the models handle that troughing over the UK.

 

For me best output is ukmo from start to finish!!especially at 72 hours!!ukmo digs in colder air quicker thanks to the low whizzing through quickly and in a good position!!gfs and ecm deepen it too much and then leave it slap bang in the middle of the uk like a slug then delays cold by another 12 hours!!

[Chesil View]

Direction of travel is much better this morning within the short/medium term.

[cobbett]

slight upward trend from 30th 

 

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, cobbett said:

slight upward trend from 30th 

 

Manchester area 

 

GFS is also a good set from what is essentially North Westerlies

 

Edited January 24, 2019 by frosty ground

[mountain shadow]

16 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

No delay in Snow chances . All models look Wintry next week.

Wintry and below average certainly,  but the air is maritime in origin and we have to be careful about forecasting snow chances.

The boundary between snow and rain will be marginal and altitude and latitude all important. 

 

[snowray]

Excellent, the 00z runs are decent upgrade this morning, for a change, what could possibly go wrong with the rest of today's runs? Happy days!

[mb018538]

Hmmm best to urge caution re the ecm as it sits outside the envelope this morning. I don’t want to see loads of winter is over posts later if it goes mild on the 12z!

[Frosty.]

Massive upgrade from the Ecm 00z longer term regarding cold..indeed, across the board it's looking great next week for snow..ice..frosts..hoping it continues the following week (s) too!

[ICE COLD]

Yep lovely improvement this morning . ECM looking tasty . @bluearmy the day 9 chart on the ecm , is there lots of snow ?? 

[snowray]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Hmmm best to urge caution re the ecm as it sits outside the envelope this morning. I don’t want to see loads of winter is over posts later if it goes mild on the 12z!

It's only just about an outlier by D10 of course, and we all know how likely that's going to be on the money whether it be showing mild or cold. The mean looks good throughout at around -5c from D4.

Edited January 24, 2019 by snowray

[Day 10]

26 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Wintry and below average certainly,  but the air is maritime in origin and we have to be careful about forecasting snow chances.

The boundary between snow and rain will be marginal and altitude and latitude all important. 

 

It will and all depends on several factors on the day especially by the coast. 

I live on the Wirral Merseyside generally a poor place for snow, however Tuesday delivered snowfall right on the coast and laying snow just 2 minutes drive from here. I might add next week looks better than Tuesday just gone with snow chances for most of the country. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Day 10

[Altostratus]

The ECM more or less follows the mean up to day 7 and the envelope is pretty tight. Thereafter, there is some divergence as expected, although that is well outside any semi reliable time frame. It's worth remembering how useless the ensembles have been so far this winter, so probably wise not to go looking for any trends beyond 120hrs as they are likely meaningless. 

[Tim Bland]

If GFS is least faverable out of the big 3 then we are in a good position! 

[More Runs Needed]

Yes, GFS looks like a decent upgrade in the mid term concerning snow chances, but sounds like its least favourable? However all should change in the next run 

[mountain shadow]

17 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

It will and all depends on several factors on the day especially by the coast. 

I live on the Wirral Merseyside generally a poor place for snow, however Tuesday delivered snowfall right on the coast and laying snow just 2 minutes drive from here. I might add next week looks better than Tuesday just gone with snow chances for most of the country. 

I think there will lots of similar incidents like this next week. Some places will get rain, where as 5 miles up the road it it will be snow.

Plenty of forecasting headaches next week, it might just come down to looking out the window.

[Timmytour]

We all laugh about the boom charts at D10 but seriously there are a vastly bigger percentage of such boom charts put out by all models than there are boom realities.

So while we talk of certain bias that is built into individual models, we should really take into account a significant bias on the part of all models to bring cold snowy weather to us. Not sure I can remember ever seeing a cold spell that was never hinted at 10 days out in the models. But I've seen loads of winter nirvanas modelled 10 days out that never bore fruit.

[That ECM]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thats the GEFS and EPS trending milder at the end now, expect the 30 dayer to dropthe E'ly or NE wording either today or tomorrow.

Ian Browns hacked feb’s account

ECM is quality. Theme of all 3 is good. Forecasting nightmare which is when surprises happen.

Edited January 24, 2019 by That ECM