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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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BlackburnChris Enthusiast

BlackburnChris

Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
Posted (edited)

Looking great to me . Lows trying to undercut the High to our East .And the Arctic High is heading south at the same time . 

 

ECH1-192.GIF

 

Models will be showing Easterlys again Very soon .

Edited by BlackburnChris
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Thats the GEFS and EPS trending milder at the end now, expect the 30 dayer to dropthe E'ly or NE wording either today or tomorrow.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

That’s better with the troublesome rounded low next week .......doesn’t dive way west like last run and on a far enough track south to bring a decent occluded snow event to many parts ......I’m sure many will dissect what follows frames 9/10 but not really worth it as the system is still being pinned down and the pattern ahead, whilst looking solid at day 6 ......remember last Thursday when the whole trough was discharged south into Europe ??  caution ......optimistic caution .......

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

Looks nice - certainly not mild!

Has a March 2013 feeling about it. Uppers not ridiculously cold, but cold enough for surprises with lows in the vicinity. 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thats the GEFS and EPS trending milder at the end now, expect the 30 dayer to dropthe E'ly or NE wording either today or tomorrow.

Has you glass got anything in it feb.....it seems it’s either overflowing or bone dry ???.  Are you taking uppers or T2’s ???

Edited by bluearmy
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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Thats the GEFS and EPS trending milder at the end now, expect the 30 dayer to dropthe E'ly or NE wording either today or tomorrow.

Feb, these change like the wind. FI is around three days atm - longer range is going to change every run. 

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lewis028 Enthusiast

lewis028

Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Essex
  • Location: Hadleigh, Essex
Posted (edited)

Winds turning to the east..216, Short lived but hoping this to show up more into feb ??

ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

Have to click on the image for some reason..

Edited by lewis028
Stupid phone!
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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
Just now, lewis028 said:

Easterly..216 

ECMOPEU00_0_1.png

have to click on the image for some reason..

Just shows 24 hours out even when clicking. 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That’s better with the troublesome rounded low next week .......doesn’t dive way west like last run and on a far enough track south to bring a decent occluded snow event to many parts ......I’m sure many will dissect what follows frames 9/10 but not really worth it as the system is still being pinned down and the pattern ahead, whilst looking solid at day 6 ......remember last Thursday when the whole trough was discharged south into Europe ??  caution ......optimistic caution .......

Yes much better and if that is the way it goes I think we can expect a little better disruption (less rounded low) so less mixing out of any cold air

ECH1-192.GIF?24-12

As for deeper FI it is nice to see the ridge to at least bring a temporary easterly since UKMO looks like it would be better so some positive wiggle room

ECH1-216.GIF?24-12

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Has you glass got anything in it feb.....it seems it’s either overflowing or bone dry ???.  Are you taking uppers or T2’s ???

Look at the pattern, this always happens, you can see it going pseudo zonal - its a telltale sign of previous failed scandi high's,

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Still plenty of chances in the current modelling for snow before these 2 weeks are up of course.

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted

ECM joins the party more or less, goes from marginal sleety to rather snowy looking charts as deep low trudges southeast on days 8 and 9. Something appropriate about this coming together on Groundhog Day I suppose, it has been that for about a month around here. This is not quite like last 28th Feb - 1st March locked in snowstorm easterly but significant falls here and there sort of a chart by day 9. Blend with GFS and you've got as good a nine-day prog as you could hope to see at this stage, worry about the details closer to time if it seems to be on track. 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s better with the troublesome rounded low next week .......doesn’t dive way west like last run and on a far enough track south to bring a decent occluded snow event to many parts ......I’m sure many will dissect what follows frames 9/10 but not really worth it as the system is still being pinned down and the pattern ahead, whilst looking solid at day 6 ......remember last Thursday when the whole trough was discharged south into Europe ??  caution ......optimistic caution .......

Miles better from the ECM, indeed miles better from most runs. Still have the real risk of milser air pumping into England at times but much more surpressed run the n general.

GFS ensembles still hinting at rising pressure over scandi later on as well...

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Ecm looking good this morning, low pressure dominated and generally cold....plenty of snow chances will come from that set up. The 240 chart is a corker.

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted

All roads lead to cold it seems. I don't think we should be taking any notice of the charts for 2 weeks time, it changes every single run.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, mb018538 said:

Ecm looking good this morning, low pressure dominated and generally cold....plenty of snow chances will come from that set up. The 240 chart is a corker.

GFS looks better, but probably wrong, GFS is rubbish according to big guns

h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still plenty of chances in the current modelling for snow before these 2 weeks are up of course.

I think you need to update yout cookies & cache - ECM is superb !

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I think you need to update yout cookies & cache - ECM is superb !

Yes agree Steve - ECM is a stonker, looks like blocking after day 10, if the ensembles flip back in the d13-15 range then game on again.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thats the GEFS and EPS trending milder at the end now, expect the 30 dayer to dropthe E'ly or NE wording either today or tomorrow.

Feb will be a freezing cold month though. That’s what we’ve all been told!

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

I would still be very cautious at the moment. Ecm and meto look very good but it looks a bit too clean to me. Gem for instance doesn’t really bring the trough south. We could still easily end up with a slightly flatter solution. 

So good signs this morning for a change but let’s see where we are tonight. Given the short timescales if we can get agreement this afternoon then confidence increases.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
10 minutes ago, Jason M said:

I would still be very cautious at the moment. Ecm and meto look very good but it looks a bit too clean to me. Gem for instance doesn’t really bring the trough south. We could still easily end up with a slightly flatter solution. 

So good signs this morning for a change but let’s see where we are tonight. Given the short timescales if we can get agreement this afternoon then confidence increases.

Yeah there is going to be a fair amount of luck required, especially further south you get in order to get the snow in. It does look increasingly likely that the low will be south enough to allow the cold back south pretty readily. 

Once the cold is established bit gives us alot more breathing space for any marginal setups that occur down the line.

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