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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Not seeing the excitement over the ukmo and Oz gfs. Ukmo ok up to the 144 he mark but look to the NW!!gFS like the ukmo has early promise but the PV slug soon puts paid to any long-term promise.stale mate for me this morning

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The 0z GFS has a predominately westerly flow with northerly incursions. There's no sign of sustained blocking for the UK.

Ironically, however, the less cold setup might produce considerably more snow. The two boundary events of 30/1 and 1/2 do look pretty interesting but I'd still urge great caution. That's a long way out, GFS tends to exaggerate lows and they're quite marginal. Still some cause for excitement, even if the overall trend is not one of deep freeze.

30/1:

672208799_ScreenShot2019-01-24at06_03_18.thumb.png.c51a660c595e46ee646186258ff87b95.png

854907177_ScreenShot2019-01-24at06_04_03.thumb.png.2a6934c69e4c992b8d995afcca6af58e.png

2087108144_ScreenShot2019-01-24at06_04_36.thumb.png.201e421d753aa6e3fcd1b9797ae2c909.png

 

1/2:

365825040_ScreenShot2019-01-24at06_03_34.thumb.png.707289cc8d6e6bc0b7fc5e6d6ede5f9a.png

1782889273_ScreenShot2019-01-24at06_04_19.thumb.png.9e5896f76952499d2daaf06bed29c224.png

1323534828_ScreenShot2019-01-24at06_04_46.thumb.png.f380e5002dae9318b681d6bb500e5b13.png

 

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The theme and trend continues this morning from ukmo and gfs. Gfs a bit slower than the ukmo. If either of them was near the mark then some places would see a lot of snow. Not really worth looking at detail past t96 but great to see both going down a similar path? 

Ukmo at t144 is a superb chart, looking forward to seeing more runs as it comes more and more into view on ukmo.

B2C61AE7-5048-465B-83EB-E8302C4716C0.png

579402D6-597C-4060-ADBF-835B6F2349DD.png

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W.i.B. -- Now there's a name I have not heard in years but it's more likely because I have been largely absent, anyway, I agree with the man himself, this will mean nought to most seasoned model viewers until it shows up on a chart that is two digits of hours into the future (will take 108 in a stretch). 

On the other hand, it is already darned cold, is it not? And about to repeat on the weekend. Maybe what we're tending to overlook a bit is that the anomalous snow cover in central Europe has made Europe a source region rather than a destination for Russian or Siberian or Scandinavian cold. Perhaps this is distorting the whole situation in that Austria is the new Siberia. And a northeasterly from Austria is going more for the Costa del Sol than Kent. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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morning  all  much  more happy  looking at  the  gfs  over  night looks like there could  be a lot  of snow  with  the westerly weather hinting  the cold air  next week  up to at least 204  hr  then it goes a bit  pants  at the  moment  mind  you that  could  still change

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

Edited by tinybill
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4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The theme and trend continues this morning from ukmo and gfs. Gfs a bit slower than the ukmo. If either of them was near the mark then some places would see a lot of snow. Not really worth looking at detail past t96 but great to see both going down a similar path? 

Ukmo at t144 is a superb chart, looking forward to seeing more runs as it comes more and more into view on ukmo.

B2C61AE7-5048-465B-83EB-E8302C4716C0.png

579402D6-597C-4060-ADBF-835B6F2349DD.png

For me, the best part is we're no longer looking at day 10! I think winter is about to strike from this weekend onwards...?

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1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

For me, the best part is we're no longer looking at day 10! I think winter is about to strike from this weekend onwards...?

It has struck! Minus 5 not far from here and a number of people have seen snow. We will see what the details look like past the weekend when we get to the weekend but “ the futures bright the futures white”???

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23 minutes ago, swfc said:

Not seeing the excitement over the ukmo and Oz gfs. Ukmo ok up to the 144 he mark but look to the NW!!gFS like the ukmo has early promise but the PV slug soon puts paid to any long-term promise.stale mate for me this morning

I disagree mate, ukmo looks great to me and an improvement on yestrerdays 12z.

Look at 144h, a cold unstable northerly type flow with after a chance of more snow from the northwest later.. 

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4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It has struck! Minus 5 not far from here and a number of people have seen snow. We will see what the details look like past the weekend when we get to the weekend but “ the futures bright the futures white”???

And about half an hour until the best ECM run of our lives, right? ?

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Just now, Jackski4 said:

And about half an hour until the best ECM run of our lives, right? ?

Big ECM coming up, for me ukmo is 7.5/10 and gfs 6.5/10 . At first I thought the gfs 00z run was poor taking the whole run into context but then after seeing all the snow chances on it next week I changed my mind ;  )  and after that is just deep FI going on the major shannon entropy we seem to be having at the moment.  

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6 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I disagree mate, ukmo looks great to me and an improvement on yestrerdays 12z.

Look at 144h, a cold unstable northerly type flow with after a chance of more snow from the northwest later.. 

I'm looking more at nhp going forward.yes transient snow is there but the constant push from the north west doesn't interest me from a synoptics side and strong winter weather.guess I should lower my expectations "had a snow- sleet shower other day"but if I did that I think I'd be in trouble lol.

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13 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

And about half an hour until the best ECM run of our lives, right? ?

It’s just another run, no more or no less important than any other. Looking for a continuation of the theme would be lovely. Fed up with seeing to many warm outliers from it lately so a run that sits somewhere in the middle of its suite would be useful ??

unfortunately I will miss the ecm coming out as I have to drive to Swindon. 2 disappointments ?? how to make friends in Swindon area????

Edited by That ECM
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12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It’s just another run, no more or no less important than any other. Looking for a continuation of the theme would be lovely. Fed up with seeing to many warm outliers from it lately so a run that sits somewhere in the middle of its suite would be useful ??

unfortunately I will miss the ecm coming out as I have to drive to Swindon. 2 disappointments ?? how to make friends in Swindon area????

Oh no, not Swindon! Jokes jokes, never been for all I know it's lovely!!

 

Safe journey, we'll all keep you posted i'm sure !

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GfS 00z Op would be about as good as we could get without any blocking, not much faith in it tbh.

GFS ensembles are quite mobile out to day 10 with a slow slackening of the cold zonal and not much sign of high lat blocking into first week of Feb

graphe3_1000_258_77___.gif

 

UKMO is similar to last nights run, looks like the next low primed to slide disrupt into what would be a cold Northerly flow by 168 but the danger is it would just phase with the main trough to the E and turn winds W mixing out any cold.

It would likely be more amplified than GFS thereafter but whether the ridge would be strong enough to bring a North Easterly and then Easterly is another question.

At least we are seeing some wintriness to close out January and after a short less cold spell through the weekend and into early next week snow chances should pick up again, more especially for the North.

 

Edited by Mucka
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46 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

W.i.B. -- Now there's a name I have not heard in years but it's more likely because I have been largely absent, anyway, I agree with the man himself, this will mean nought to most seasoned model viewers until it shows up on a chart that is two digits of hours into the future (will take 108 in a stretch). 

On the other hand, it is already darned cold, is it not? And about to repeat on the weekend. Maybe what we're tending to overlook a bit is that the anomalous snow cover in central Europe has made Europe a source region rather than a destination for Russian or Siberian or Scandinavian cold. Perhaps this is distorting the whole situation in that Austria is the new Siberia. And a northeasterly from Austria is going more for the Costa del Sol than Kent. 

We will in Central Europe are having an average month re. temps and snow cover,its the high ground over 500 m.asl that seen anomalous dumpings,I ve  spoke to followers in Hungary,Poland and Czech rep. who live below 300m and they are having crap winter as well,apart from areas in their eastern side.Far too much westerly component after few promising days. I am blessed with being east enough and hadn't had over 2C max. since 15/12. This week is a bit different as we got below -15c for 3 nights and with only a modest snow cover. 5-10cm expecting tonight. ?

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Yes the ukmo144 looks good at that point but chances are the Canadian lobe will scupper that(as has done all winter).

Gfs i feel has gone on one with the progressive nature.

Want to see the ukmo come down to t+48 for me then I'll  get excited.

I just feel the chances of a decent cold spell are been pushed back. Over to you Ecm.

 

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ECM is broadly in line with UKMO out to 144 not withstanding upstream differences from 144, so GFS looking a little out on a limb already

Below ECM 120/144

UKMO 120/144

GFS 120/144

ECH1-120.GIF?24-12ECH1-144.GIF?24-12

UN120-21.GIFUN144-21.GIF

gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-0-144.png

Edited by Mucka
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4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

!!! Would never have guessed? how's it looking this morning?

Past T+120 very tasty to my untrained eye, uppers below -5 and low pressure hovering around, still waiting for the run to complete on meteociel

Edited by Essex Easterly.
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