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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

We need a Snexiteer; and preferably one who will rule-out No Snow! Piers Corbyn???👍

I vote Tight Isobar, he would talk rings round them all those snowmoaners!

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26 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Feel I have an apology to make. 

If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it.

Was feeling fed up (partly due to the way this thread was going and for other reasons). Regardless, I shouldn’t have taken out my frustrations on here by vaporising this thread and leaving people feeling confused and worried as to what happened. 

It wasn’t fair and I didn’t let any members of my team know what I did. Nor anyone on here. I’m sorry for behaving that way and wouldn’t blame anyone for being annoyed. Not really a great example for a mod/host to set. 

While I appreciate some of the damage I likely caused (even though some will probably look back on the mysteriousness of the missing thread and laugh), I will make sure it doesn’t happen again. After all, this thread is meant to be a laid back and fun place for you guys to chat about the models, and would hate to ruin that mood. 

Could have chosen not to have said anything at all, but feel you guys deserved to know the truth! 

That is some major bants there 😎

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You know what they say.....get the cold in first and then....you know Spring's just around the corner!

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I vote Tight Isobar, he would talk rings round them all those snowmoaners!

Sorry he wont do.  He doesn't dodge questions.

 

He is the best cryptic forecaster their is.  I look forward to his deciphering.

Edited by Had Worse

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To be fair @DiagonalRedLine

that is not model related

could I kindly ask you to post in the appropriate thread in future. If not it may be removed, or we will be forced to remove your posting privileges 

many thanks

banter team

 

Edited by snowbob

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Feel I have an apology to make. 

It was actually me that hid and locked the thread. I was annoyed because Danny Dyer kept being posted over and over again and I feel as if this is turning into the Danny Dyer fan forum. It was unprofessional, I could have said nothing but I felt like you all deserved to know the truth! 

Now, onto hunting some cold! The 18z is rolling, I expect FI will be completely different yet again.

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6 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

I have a funny feeling Feb is going to be a good month for cold lovers, no data to back that up , just a feeling.

I have that feeling every year!:yahoo:

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No guys, I have an apology to make...

 

I just don't like weather anymore.. Be sure to check out my new thread titled "Cute puppy pics"

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4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Feel I have an apology to make. 

It was actually me that hid and locked the thread. I was annoyed because Danny Dyer kept being posted over and over again and I feel as if this is turning into the Danny Dyer fan forum. It was unprofessional, I could have said nothing but I felt like you all deserved to know the truth! 

Now, onto hunting some cold! The 18z is rolling, I expect FI will be completely different yet again.

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSqPnKd5Wa_59-IQ1sXMn7

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The top of Azores low is less powerful on this run so will cross the country on a more southerly trajectory 

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3 hours ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Agree 100%

Agree

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2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The top of Azores low is less powerful on this run so will cross the country on a more southerly trajectory 

Yeah it is actually fairly noticeable difference from the 12z run at the same point.

Catacol has posted an AWESOME post in the other model thread explaining what may have gone wrong with the cold spell that the models have been trying to produce. Very interesting and feeds a tropical explanation as to why the Canadian PV has been so strong and why its kept reverting a more zonal pattern (well, NW for us, but even so...)

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yeah it is actually fairly noticeable difference from the 12z run at the same point.

Catacol has posted an AWESOME post in the other model thread explaining what may have gone wrong with the cold spell that the models have been trying to produce. Very interesting and feeds a tropical explanation as to why the Canadian PV has been so strong and why its kept reverting a more zonal pattern (well, NW for us, but even so...)

Except that it strengthened later so hasn’t made much of a difference. Off to read catacols post

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OK, so here are the big three (and Icon for fun) at 90/96.  Subtle differences, but over all fairly good agreement thus far I'd say.

ECM image.thumb.png.5d35ef48c824d22293c1677c2450853e.png UKMO image.thumb.png.daecd46552cfca9b342c6184272d25e8.png ICON image.thumb.png.bf9298d7aa4a64e80a9ffcd167f62665.png GFS image.thumb.png.dd37757b8e67856f0b9659f89bfc8e81.png

Edited by Ice Day

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10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I have that feeling every year!:yahoo:

Ed I have these same feelings every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, then the Euro Lotto numbers come out and I'm gutted again. Be thankful you just have 3 months of pain 🙂

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Gfs pub run could see alot of snow showers on Sunday. 

gfs-2-84.png

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8 hours ago, s4lancia said:

Great 06z runs! Nice to see the GFS(P) on it as well.

Hoping for another decent MJO update later this afternoon. Last few days have been small day on day improvements. The main one being getting in and out of P5 sharpish and on towards P6. Secondly better and better amplification within.

Just catching up with the day’s charts. MJO daily improvements continue I see...

8DEA0345-C6DB-410A-9C05-C2E6E1C3531A.thumb.gif.85ec1872e4322d4e23a2d44d9be8c0c3.gifF3533321-F57B-4451-9092-713C3AB22B9F.thumb.gif.ce2d662b6720dd095255dd9f807d2b76.gif

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3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Just catching up with the day’s charts. MJO daily improvements continue I see...

8DEA0345-C6DB-410A-9C05-C2E6E1C3531A.thumb.gif.85ec1872e4322d4e23a2d44d9be8c0c3.gifF3533321-F57B-4451-9092-713C3AB22B9F.thumb.gif.ce2d662b6720dd095255dd9f807d2b76.gif

Is that a predicted 7

sorry if wrong

only just learning mjo this week

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gfs-0-108.png?18icon-0-108.png?23-18

Much better and in line with ICON!

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Not liking this could be even worse between 144 and 168 hours!!

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3 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Is that a predicted 7

sorry if wrong

only just learning mjo this week

It looks increasingly probable that it will make it into phase 7 at a reasonable amplitude. Positive for blocking in better positions for us ..

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Low off Canada doesn't look in a great position at the moment at 126hrs...may not be the run we are looking for but still time for change!

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