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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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11 minutes ago, Matty M said:

Apols....London

image.thumb.png.091e88a1599e3da5b4143c5f7a5440b3.pngimage.thumb.png.3b328d9f8f89fbf823075d0b4bb90581.pngLondon...Manchester

1

I'm not overly familiar with these graphs, but to see such scatter at 72 must be unusual - London is showing 850's of between +5 to -6?

Edited by Ice Day

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Yeah it does indicate that the further north you are the better chance you will be on the cold side of the trough by day 10..

 

Operational note an outlier but in cluster of 10% of milder solutions.

 

By the time you take a look at Aberdeen plume, this becomes clearer to eyeball..

 

image.thumb.png.4084c0e06c4093dcd112a410ef0876af.png

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Icon looking good at 60 hours already!!heightd punching north near iceland and no deep low either over the uk!!

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The scandi high is the growing trend ....... if that’s the case then why would you want the Canadian lobe to switch off ??  Ease off a bit but we need it punching out some low heights to get across to replenish the euro trough and slide against that growing ridge ....fwiw, the eps day 10 mean snow depth is the deepest it’s been across the uk for a while .....

Basically we want the vortex to ease to allow a cold plunge down into Europe. After that if we do get a Scandi high then as you say what happens to the Canadian vortex isn't a problem as you say. 5th-10th is still my call for decent blocking...but I think your right about the location now.

Of course, the big risk is shown on the 12z GFS op, in that you do get HP building but there isn't any decent cold air pool within a 1000 miles to tap into, that run would look a whole let better with Europe being 10C colder!

Matty, that is good, the closer we can have the cold pool the easier it will be to drag it down IF we can get any Scandi high afterwards.

Edited by kold weather

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10 minutes ago, Matty M said:

Yeah it does indicate that the further north you are the better chance you will be on the cold side of the trough by day 10..

 

Operational note an outlier but in cluster of 10% of milder solutions.

 

By the time you take a look at Aberdeen plume, this becomes clearer to eyeball..

 

image.thumb.png.4084c0e06c4093dcd112a410ef0876af.png

How did you get these charts?

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The scandi high is the growing trend ....... if that’s the case then why would you want the Canadian lobe to switch off ??  Ease off a bit but we need it punching out some low heights to get across to replenish the euro trough and slide against that growing ridge ....fwiw, the eps day 10 mean snow depth is the deepest it’s been across the uk for a while .....

To be fair blue you have been saying that Scandi is the way for a while now

and that does seem to be the growing trend

 

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icon-0-75.png?23-18icon-14-81.png?23-18

Some very strong winds showing!

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1 minute ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Just checked the ECMWF 850mb ensembles for Swansea and they look poor into Feb with nothing showing below 0C, oh the joys of living by the seaside 😁

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That’s air temps not 850 . They’re not bad .

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As TomSE12 is inserting Tolstoy novels into the SE & EA, I propose something similar for this one...So, what with the four-times-a-day mood swings (along with ever-present 'promise' of winds from the Urals) I thought I'd offer a Fyodor Dostoevsky. I guess that 'Punishment and Punishment' would be as good a title as any...?:drunk:

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So what I can make out:

Today is Wednesday

Mild blip day/s Friday/Sat

Cold returns Sunday with chance of snow

Next week turns colder

FI

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1 minute ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Just checked the ECMWF 850mb ensembles for Swansea and they look poor into Feb with nothing showing below 0C, oh the joys of living by the seaside 😁

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They can't be correct... Swansea in South Carolina by any chance?!

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Wowzers - shame it’ll disappear tomorrow

 

12E909FC-1951-4C0F-B02F-330E5213D7F4.png

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Just now, Stuie W said:

So what I can make out:

Today is Wednesday

Mild blip day/s Friday/Sat

Cold returns Sunday with chance of snow

Next week turns colder

FI

The only blips ive seen so far are cold ones!    Anyway its looking a bit better on the models than earlier, thank the lord!

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Looked at the models and didnt know what to make of it today, licked my finger and stuck it in the air....cold, i'm going with cold 

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CFS is showing quite a few marginal snow events for many parts of the UK and Ireland from the end of the month through the first week of February...

When has it ever been wrong before!? 🤔😂

anim_qzu0.gif

 

anim_jdz5.gif

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2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

They can't be correct... Swansea in South Carolina by any chance?!

It maybe that the Swansea grid point is actually in the water, that would explain why temps hold up on all runs a little more.

We really do need some operational runs onboard from the 18z and 00z suite, or these ensembles will shift back milder again like they have done before.

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The scandi high is the growing trend ....... if that’s the case then why would you want the Canadian lobe to switch off ??  Ease off a bit but we need it punching out some low heights to get across to replenish the euro trough and slide against that growing ridge ....fwiw, the eps day 10 mean snow depth is the deepest it’s been across the uk for a while .....

That, my friend is wonderful news, i do hope i don't have to dig the Benny Hill gif out again ..

 

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1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

CFS is showing quite a few marginal snow events for many parts of the UK and Ireland from the end of the month through the first week of February...

When has it ever been wrong before!? 🤔😂

anim_qzu0.gif

 

anim_jdz5.gif

That’s the biggest problem for end of jan and beginning of feb.  Marginal

hate that firkin word.

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1 minute ago, snowbob said:

That’s the biggest problem for end of jan and beginning of feb.  Marginal

hate that firkin word.

I don`t know, marginal has potential...

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3 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

CFS is showing quite a few marginal snow events for many parts of the UK and Ireland from the end of the month through the first week of February...

When has it ever been wrong before!? 🤔😂

anim_qzu0.gif

 

anim_jdz5.gif

Hey Mr F...are you and Mrs F members of the Denis Taylor Appreciation Society?:drunk:

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giphy.gif

Ready for another round everyone!

We are certainly having to work for this one. I do with all hope, hope that the GFs 18z is the start of a shift towards the colder solutions, feel like it needs to happen soon otherwise ensembles will shift at some point.

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