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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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46 minutes ago, swfc said:

Gfs parra is ok up to 162 mark then the energy slips south of Greenland,"granted fi"but the high is on a dodgy wicket there after

The GFS Para always look good but never seem to bear fruit??

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ECM has the low further south and less intense also more amplified upstream hopefully a cracking Northerly to arrive 96hr.

ECM1-72.gif

Edited by booferking

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1 minute ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

The GFS Para always look good but never seem to bear fruit??

Well it's supposed to be an upgraded version of gfs! whether it's up and running at a higher resolution I'm not sure tbh

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Late last night was great in here, with the knowledgeable avengers crew all posting highly informative posts. THANKS to you all! 

It's been a max of 3 degrees in North Kent today and -4 last night. Snowed yesterday but struggled to settle. So it is preety cold already!

I have the faith in an easterly spell for one reason and one only

The birds leaving berries on bushes and squirrels just started stashing lol 😛

Nature acts in mysterious ways!

Looking forward till later when the toy throwers have gone to bed and people can enjoy a decent debate without all the 💩💩💩.

Can't wait for the ecm to cop on to the downwelling and lead the way for the start of February ❄😎

Edited by Mapantz
Let the moderators do the moderating.

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UKMO looking good tonight, I’m liking the flow at 96, nice alignment of the cold north/north westerly, with a runner coming down the west, could well be some Snow showers in the flow.

Then the 144 cheat looks loaded going forward.

GFS op a mild outlier.

Will await ECM

 

UKMO 96 -144

E68F06CA-AEB3-469F-AF38-A992625BCE94.thumb.png.04525746ab177c6416de961fe3918f95.png

83CD60FA-727B-4C8A-8E0C-582FDAF3CC82.thumb.png.992abf271ebe47b2f9047f3fa9eccd51.png

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

Well it's supposed to be an upgraded version of gfs! whether it's up and running at a higher resolution I'm not sure tbh

It is running at a higher resolution but at the moment it has shown no real progress against the old GFS in terms of verification stats worldwide. ECM still in the lead on that front, though abit more even in the last month than previously, where ECM was heads above the others in verification.

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Just now, markw2680 said:

I think I’m about to blow! Iv just scanned through about 6 pages of waffle on here after work I honestly don’t no whether I’m coming or going tbh! One minute is oh it’s dyer next one is quite snowy then easterly setting up quite honestly I’m lost right now

As many have said new thread please. 

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53 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Ok so the ensembles are once again a big mess...

However we clearly have TWO clusters at play:

1: Follows the GFS op + UKMO and takes the Polar vortex lobe over Canada into the Atlantic, it merges with a low further east and the whole thing collapses.

2: 06z GFS op run - basically the PV lobe rotates around the main lobe and doesn't come away and remains over Canada/ far W.Greenland, thids allows pressure to rise and we get our northerly.

Much more binary set of runs than we have previously seen. Probably still just about more support for cold, but like the ECM its basically close to 50-50.

Where does the UKMO collapse?? 

968E6191-A6A8-4341-99BB-F8D4ED1FFDF6.thumb.png.45583a1c360b3935bee52bb8d6a72b5c.png

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2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I think I’m about to blow! Iv just scanned through about 6 pages of waffle on here after work I honestly don’t no whether I’m coming or going tbh! One minute is oh it’s dyer next one is quite snowy then easterly setting up quite honestly I’m lost right now

I think the only solution to that is to set an exam for posters on weather knowledge

Scores under 50% send them off to a codology thread 🙂

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Chris, it would come around 168-192hrs as that large area of lower thickness/pressure forces the jet into the westerly pattern it has on the 12z GFS, you'd keep a cool WNW probably till then, but the LP would come into the Atlantic and eventually turn winds WSW/SW, once again like GFS. I've made a post which has been quoted in the other thread explaining how that would work in practice.

96hrs and the ECM handling of the upper vortex over the US and swinging into Canada looks better for us...but hard to know without seeing the 96-120hrs progress whether its going to make any difference.

Edited by kold weather

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36 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This year seems to be worse than previous ones with people taking operational runs too seriously beyond day 6/7. As far as I recall, we hardly ever used ops post day 8 for anything other than a bit of fun. Now we have people going nuts because of output at day 11 or 12. It’s just madness.

ecm’s flatter solution in the mid term looks reasonable based on current modelling - beyond that, there may be a more amplified picture but that’s way beyond reliability of ops and ens continuity looks poor to take too much from it 

fwiw, the gefs continue to hint at blocking once we get to around 5th feb as the Canadian vortex is pulled west by the developing n Pacific segment - this was the pattern that gave us the December scandi height rise which was scuppered by the ex TS that came into the Atlantic with too much energy for it to survive- with that not a possibility early feb and the lower strat now with very slack flow, you would expect HLB to establish somewhere to our north after that date 

I've been suggesting a thread for 0-144hr for years now. Would make a hell of a lot more sense to me than the current configuration. A 0-144hr thread and a Long range thread for those who want to look beyond.

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5 minutes ago, icykev said:

This being the hunt 4 cold thread, if your not interested in looking for the cold and continue with pessimistic posts do yourself and all of us a favour and do 1!

Late last night was great in here, with the knowledgeable avengers crew all posting highly informative posts. THANKS to you all! 

It's been a max of 3 degrees in North Kent today and -4 last night. Snowed yesterday but struggled to settle. So it is preety cold already!

I have the faith in an easterly spell for one reason and one only

The birds leaving berries on bushes and squirrels just started stashing lol 😛

Nature acts in mysterious ways!

Looking forward till later when the toy throwers have gone to bed and people can enjoy a decent debate without all the 💩💩💩.

Can't wait for the ecm to cop on to the downwelling and lead the way for the start of February ❄😎

It’s nice being positive but to be fair there has been eye candy charts and near misses since the start of December, so I can understand some people’s frustrations.

Last night was good purely as it was all cold charts the place was buzzing,,, but to tell people to do one is a bit rich!!! Maybe you should look elsewhere if your unhappy!!

 

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5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I think I’m about to blow! Iv just scanned through about 6 pages of waffle on here after work I honestly don’t no whether I’m coming or going tbh! One minute is oh it’s dyer next one is quite snowy then easterly setting up quite honestly I’m lost right now

Blue Noses are easily confused but what's a Dyer ? I have visions of Danny Dyer in front of a weather map, swearing about cold fronts !

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3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Where does the UKMO collapse?? 

968E6191-A6A8-4341-99BB-F8D4ED1FFDF6.thumb.png.45583a1c360b3935bee52bb8d6a72b5c.png

It doesn't.🤷‍♂️

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Just now, Paul33 said:

Blue Noses are easily confused but what's a Dyer ? I have visions of Danny Dyer in front of a weather map, swearing about cold fronts !

Or like this?;)

DxnE8-4XcAAh3FG.jpg

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120-144 hours.need this to pan out ie that low existing the ESB and heading towards Greenland!!!

Edited by swfc

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Erm....what model does ITV use as they seem to overcook temperatures? 

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Just now, nn2013 said:

Erm....what model does ITV use as they seem to overcook temperatures? 

Metoffice give them their forecasts I think?  Not sure about the temps forecast though I find they differ all over the shop.

Edited by P-M

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2 hours ago, swfc said:

Gfs producers a low from out of the blue at 42 hours???not sure how that will affect the ridging but its there eitherway which it wasn't on the 6z

Where?

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6 hours ago, O'Maille80 said:

All these sarcastic/negative 'what could go wrong posts?' are boring at his stage. Add nothing to the thread.

But it did all go wrong and sometimes a good dose of reality is needed in here.

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