Cold hunt - models and chat

[craigore]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

If its the same 850s which we had this week then its snow and it looks like they will be similar maybe even colder as we go on so all in all i will take that over south-westerlies any day.

 

Not all of us had snow..

Was very marginal in the south east.

Sleet wet snow rain..

To sum up just cold & wet...

Will need it to be colder than it has been the last 24 hrs..

[shaky]

Ridiculous from 12gfs!!its gone from no low to a storm at 48 hours!!!just our luck!!

[winterof79]

9 minutes ago, swfc said:

Gfs producers a low from out of the blue at 42 hours???not sure how that will affect the ridging but its there eitherway which it wasn't on the 6z

It was there on the 06z not not properly formed. Interesting. Probably be a stronger northery

Edited January 23, 2019 by winterof79

[Guest Delete Me]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Shaping more and more like the Klingon bird of prey

Think the recent cold spell activated its cloak and did one too..

Anyway some lovely runs have appeared for next week and into Feb...will they manage to stick it out or will we see a SW flow interupt!

[markw2680]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Interesting little runner has appeared at 48h. Any chance it might come in at the right angle for us snow starved SW folk?

 

Am I right in thinking that runner low could come across and block off that azores high and keep us cold? Or am I off on one lol

[Deep Snow please]

Could this low pressure that's just turned up in the atlantic be the key to the door?

 

 

[That ECM]

Differences at t66 on gfs are huge for such a short time frame

Edited January 23, 2019 by That ECM

[Yarmy]

7 minutes ago, swfc said:

Gfs producers a low from out of the blue at 42 hours???not sure how that will affect the ridging but its there eitherway which it wasn't on the 6z

Not on any of the GEFS, either. What a joke.

[danm]

20 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Not sure why the NEly or Ely make a difference many areas in Oxfordshire had a good covering of snow yesterday evening - I wish people would stop the fascination with winds from the East.

We don’t always need winds from the E/NE. The mid December 2010 cold spell was an artic northerly and delivered for virtually the entire country. 

However, with an E/NE’rly we’re much more likely to get deep cold as there is less modification. It is the holy grail for many, although I do understand for people further West that’s not always the case unless we have a battleground set up. 

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Not on any of the GEFS, either. What a joke.

cant see it on ukmo either unless it flies threw ???

[Mike Poole]

UKMO looking interesting at T120, I wonder if that 1030 high could link with the heights to the north?

[Yarmy]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

cant see it on ukmo either unless it flies threw ???

Can't see the earlier hours yet, but doesn't look like it at T96. 

Either way the GFS goes from a rain-to-snow event on Saturday night to a rain-to-rain-and-more-rain event.

[booferking]

Side by side UKMO & GFS..

[shaky]

I assume ukmo develops it aswell as it looks the same as gfs at 72 hours!!so operationals might have picked up on it!!

[Weathizard]

Yeah the low is a little more rounded and thus drags in milder air

[booferking]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

I assume ukmo develops it aswell as it looks the same as gfs at 72 hours!!so operationals might have picked up on it!!

Yea the ICON has it as well just not as strong as the other two.

[shaky]

Dunno what to make of ukmo this evening at 144 hours!!could do with that low pressure further south and slightly east!!

[O'Maille80]

Me currently checking out Meteociel.

[northwestsnow]

I like UKMO 144..

Should go colder from there..

[frosty ground]

Just now, shaky said:

Dunno what to make of ukmo this evening at 144 hours!!could do with that low pressure further south and slightly east!!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Dunno what to make of ukmo this evening at 144 hours!!could do with that low pressure further south and slightly east!!

Never mind that Shaky, look North!

Edited January 23, 2019 by karlos1983

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Im not keen on the ukmo 12z, looks like a west based NAO setting up to me

[IDO]

These nuances as we enter the reliable, where the models tidy up the micro-detail, have been favourable so far, with each run edging the pattern slightly west:

06z12z>>

Good for the mild sectors keeping to the west and gives a little bit for margins of error. This run, the northerly hits the UK directly at D4 and the showers are no longer in the North Sea, as they were on the 06z.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Im not keen on the ukmo 12z, looks like a west based NAO setting up to me

For me its looking good- look at the wedge of HP to ur north, should direct traffic SE..

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Im not keen on the ukmo 12z, looks like a west based NAO setting up to me

Not with that other LP coming from the NW - hypothetical , changed by the morning