Cold hunt - models and chat

[Jackski4]

22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM ENS look very cold to me!!

The control run goes into the Freezer !!

@bluearmy

Whats the flow all Easterly?

How far out is the ENS you're referring to, Steve?

[bluearmy]

32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM ENS look very cold to me!!

The control run goes into the Freezer !!

@bluearmy

Whats the flow all Easterly?

Generally although warm sector at day 12 and the ridge sinks across uk day 13 onwards - uk a little too far west on that disruption day 12 —-up to the day 12 incursion the control is again sinking the trough with less fiddlyness than the ops with an easterly to follow 

18 minutes ago, kold weather said:

They are still ok, but they are definitely a large step back from the great 12z ensembles of yesterday, and you all know where the slippery slide leads to, we've already seen it just last week...

I would give it a couple more runs kold - I see differences although the charts look v similar 

 

[TEITS]

Nothing has changed my outlook. Still believe an E,ly will arrive for the start of the month. I heard a BBC forecast say yesterday "No sign of any E,ly anytime soon" I thought to myself we shall see about that.

I continue to have a serious distrust of the output especially from +120 onwards and this is with regards to the operationals. The ensembles will be even more useless in my opinion. Remember a beast from the east never occurs from +240 to +0. These always seem to appear much earlier i.e +96 to +168.

No problem holding my hands up if im wrong. Sorry this post isn't exactly scientific but my approach has always been instinctive.

Edited January 23, 2019 by TEITS

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Generally although warm sector at day 12 and the ridge sinks across uk day 13 onwards - uk a little too far west on that disruption day 12 —-up to the day 12 incursion the control is again sinking the trough with less fiddlyness than the ops with an easterly to follow 

I would give it a couple more runs kold - I see differences although the charts look v similar 

 

IS the 6z out yet? Are we looking good ?

[Yarmy]

Reasonably potent Northerly with plenty of precip for England at just T90 on the 6z GFS:

 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I would give it a couple more runs kold - I see differences although the charts look v similar 

 

Yeah, still pretty volatile modelling out there and ther ehave been shifts. Still when the ECM latches onto something like it seems to have done (this is now like the 4th run with the same broad trend) and the other models start to move towards it in small steps, I start to become very suspect.

Still plenty enough to keep an eye on though and not to become overly despondent, yet. Also at last we are seeing some cold intrustions now which is better than the first half of this winter, so that is positive regardless of whether its snowy or not.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yeah, still pretty volatile modelling out there and ther ehave been shifts. Still when the ECM latches onto something like it seems to have done (this is now like the 4th run with the same broad trend) and the other models start to move towards it in small steps, I start to become very suspect.

Still plenty enough to keep an eye on though and not to become overly despondent, yet. Also at last we are seeing some cold intrustions now which is better than the first half of this winter, so that is positive regardless of whether its snowy or not.

This ec op looks much more inline with where I would expect to to be - and it brings a n England snow line which is again not unexpected 

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This ec op looks much more inline with where I would expect to to be - and it brings a n England snow line which is again not unexpected 

Yeah that's what I'm worried about, because whilst good for Scotland, its a pants set-up further south and with that PV lobe on the move again I can't see any mechanism to shunt the cold south of where it is. The only thing I see is HP building towards Europe with there being a weak upper low to our north and the cutoff low heading south sand a strong push from the west with a new PV lobe moving towards NE Canada...and that equals game-over again.

Edited January 23, 2019 by kold weather

[Tim Bland]

Short term there are still some opportunities for snow. Tomorrow morning a band of wet snow slips south giving a dusting for some and then Sunday another dusting is possible in the east. 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yeah that's what I'm worried about, because whilst good for Scotland, its a pants set-up further south and with that PV lobe on the move again I can't see any mechanism to shunt the cold south of where it is. The only thing I see is HP building towards Europe with there being a weak upper low to our north and the cutoff low heading south sand a strong push from the west...and that equals game-over again.

You were right last week when you said it was gonna be game over for this week. At some point we're going to need to silence you

[Chris101]

7 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Reasonably potent Northerly with plenty of precip for England at just T90 on the 6z GFS:

 

The length and size of the high at 96, surely a chance of a big atlantic block and a big northerly?

[claret047]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This ec op looks much more inline with where I would expect to to be - and it brings a n England snow line which is again not unexpected 

Please forgive me for asking as I am a relative novice at reading charts but do you mean a north England snow line or an England snow line. Where do you expect the demarcation to be? Many thanks.

Kind Regards Dave

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Chris101 said:

The length and size of the high at 96, surely a chance of a big atlantic block and a big northerly?

Would take a northerly over a NWerly any day down here in the SE. Means we have colder air for a start and gives us more of a chance of getting in the act with the snow showers coming down the east coast.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah that's what I'm worried about, because whilst good for Scotland, its a pants set-up further south and with that PV lobe on the move again I can't see any mechanism to shunt the cold south of where it is. The only thing I see is HP building towards Europe with there being a weak upper low to our north and the cutoff low heading south sand a strong push from the west with a new PV lobe moving towards NE Canada...and that equals game-over again.

I think you’re over analysing a day 9/10 op chart .....

Edited January 23, 2019 by bluearmy

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

You were right last week when you said it was gonna be game over for this week. At some point we're going to need to silence you

I;m not feeling anywhere near as downbeat (yet!) over this one, as we do have cold opportunities still and there is still ample time for a movement of those LPs into one more favourable for snow, as this set-up won't rely on having that deep of a cold pool, so more flexibility here.

Tim, it maybe worth a watch, then again the GFS did a poor job with the set-up on Monday night so may need to look at other models for support.

[Snowman.]

6z much better amplification coming out the seaboard

 

6z   0z 

Less round low and less oomph too should help the ridge stay on for a bit longer.

Edited January 23, 2019 by Snowman.

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think you’re over analysing a day 9/10 op chart .....

Maybe, but that is where the 00z ECM would head for certain. (maybe I have overanalysed that chart a little  )

Anyway, the ECM is not infallible and so we move on!

06z GFS looking a little more amplified this run upstream and as I said in a previous post, we don't need great amounts of cold pooling to do the job, just enough.

Edited January 23, 2019 by kold weather

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Please forgive me for asking as I am a relative novice at reading charts but do you mean a north England snow line or an England snow line. Where do you expect the demarcation to be? Many thanks.

Kind Regards Dave

On the ec op it was n midlands but much too far away to make a call 

[dixonoid]

t850Cambridgeshire (1).webp

Going by the ensembles, FI is very, very early on, so to me is a sign that the reversal is starting to kick in, as early as the 24th the spaghetti is being thrown everywhere. One constant is whatever happens, I don't think the 850s are going above -5 for a while, here's to the rollercoaster model watching, lol.

Edited January 23, 2019 by dixonoid

[Snowman.]

Got ourselves a trigger low! Should travel SE and a ridge builds behind it. So far much better run from the 6z.

Edited January 23, 2019 by Snowman.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Maybe, but that is where the 00z ECM would head for certain. (maybe I have overanalysed that chart a little  )

Anyway, the ECM is not infallible and so we move on!

06z GFS looking a little more amplified this run upstream and as I said in a previous post, we don't need great amounts of cold pooling to do the job, just enough.

Look at the spreads day 10 today compared to the previous forecast a week ago

  

Far more eps support for that french trough to be solid and a likely stiff nor’easter for the uk

 

[Weathizard]

Can we throw a ridge/wedge north... Nope another spawn of the devil system appears at the southern tip of Greenland, may slide SE but prevents the ridge from moving again. That area is really grinding my gears now.

Edited January 23, 2019 by Weathizard

[frosty ground]

Good run so far lots of cold PM air around over the weekend then a slight mild sector still sub zero at 850 level then a renewed north westerly. 

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Can we throw a ridge/wedge north... Nope another spawn of the devil system appears at the southern tip of Greenland. That area is really grinding my gears now.

Actually that is what we want, it will build behind it as it moves SE might even be a snow event.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Can we throw a ridge/wedge north... Nope another spawn of the devil system appears at the southern tip of Greenland. That area is really grinding my gears now.

That is fine, the LP in that area should head SE and introduce the colder air and ridging from the Azores high behind it. Its good!

Bluearmy, that is why I'm too fussed about the ECM as it is at the moment, just thought worth mentioning there is a notable shift for the negative over both the Arctic, the state of the NWE PV and less digging of the trough on the 00z suite in general and its not a trend I want to see continued!

Edited January 23, 2019 by kold weather