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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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That ecm is massive outlier from pretty much day 3!!fi is at day 3 thats just mad!!

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC day 10 mean is awesome tonight!!

If I had a pound for every time someone posted about how good the mean is.....ha😆

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2 minutes ago, danm said:

A 3-4cm covering of snow here in suburban north London, in a PM NW’erly is pretty damn good. Shows how little snow events can pop up at short notice. Much more than was forecast. 

Models definitely showing a little more interest today. It looks like we have the potential for shorter term upgrades in the output over the next few days. 

 

C1BCACF1-D170-4AB8-A00D-14F4625DF42C.jpeg

CC9796B5-4BAF-48E5-AE7F-E7A944488613.jpeg

Which really shows the potential in the coming days 

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2 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

 

If I had a pound for every time someone posted about how good the mean is.....ha😆

On all fairness, the 12z ECM ensembles mean IS good tonight, when people said it was good I wasn't sure, but they were 100% right on that one.

Now we really do need a good ECM operational tomorrow, because the OP ECM can be pretty problematic once gets its teeth into something, an outlier now may not be that way in 24-36hrs time...

Anyway I'm interested in how each of the individual ensemble members look, that will be telling.

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5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

 those magical words “stonker” 

 

 

Whenever I type stonker it changes to stinker so I have to type stonker again..really annoying!!:crazy:

Anyway, overall i'm very happy with the direction we're heading with cold reloads and at least some snow for many..especially further north.👍❄️:cold-emoji:

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6 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

 

If I had a pound for every time someone posted about how good the mean is.....ha😆

If only the model output was as consistent and predictable as yours😩😩😜😜🤣🤣🤣

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20 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

and having hype(perfectly justified based on the models and info available to us) over a potential cold spell is bad because?

Because this place is becoming what u read in the newspapers ( we all know what that is) objectivity seems to have gone out the window .

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19 minutes ago, tinybill said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

i only can say that the charts from 170 hr  nothing short of a winter wonder  land  if the gfs is  right!!

gfs-2-180.png

gfs-2-186.png

Last Tuesdays (15th) gfs for today

398E647A-E688-47A6-883B-E180FBDC25CC.thumb.png.49d48a7e96e15a6c94514c8e2dfe7199.png

Today it snowed, quite heavily for some

19BBB9D0-3E11-41D5-9EC3-C7621F40B459.thumb.png.9d5c2804b7b9cc57dc69713b277d7a2b.png

Round of applause for GFS 😂

With regard to your post, it’s possible

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19 minutes ago, danm said:

A 3-4cm covering of snow here in suburban north London, in a PM NW’erly is pretty damn good. Shows how little snow events can pop up at short notice. Much more than was forecast. 

Models definitely showing a little more interest today. It looks like we have the potential for shorter term upgrades in the output over the next few days. 

 

C1BCACF1-D170-4AB8-A00D-14F4625DF42C.jpeg

CC9796B5-4BAF-48E5-AE7F-E7A944488613.jpeg

There you go who says the South East cant get snow from a NW’erly that's more than most of us got in NI..👍

Edited by booferking
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6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

If only the model output was as consistent and predictable as yours😩😩😜😜🤣🤣🤣

 

B7A92474-4A98-41F5-97F9-53CC1365D3D8.png

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13 minutes ago, danm said:

A 3-4cm covering of snow here in suburban north London, in a PM NW’erly is pretty damn good. Shows how little snow events can pop up at short notice. Much more than was forecast. 

Models definitely showing a little more interest today. It looks like we have the potential for shorter term upgrades in the output over the next few days. 

 

C1BCACF1-D170-4AB8-A00D-14F4625DF42C.jpeg

CC9796B5-4BAF-48E5-AE7F-E7A944488613.jpeg

Here’s the forecast From Sunday From Euro4 not bad

5673B376-F254-4A58-BE96-AD9D66AFF171.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, booferking said:

There you go who says the South East cant get snow from a NW’erly that's more than most of us got in NI..👍

I'm personally still 0 for 30 years form a NW airflow, but then again the chances always were there for some snow as this was a very cyclonic NW airflow and that trough feature was neat.

Indeed, that trough should show that just because a set-up doesn't look 'that' snowy, it could become one in a cyclonic airflow, which is highly likely to be the case if we do get the GFS evolution.

ECM control run out to 29th looks very good, much better than the OP. Rest of the individual members should be out soon so will be good to tell.

Edited by kold weather
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Well if nothing else happens this winter I have at least had some settling snow tonight, even if it was just a dusting

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Sadly for us on the south coast we have to wait for our easterly to materialise for any real cold and snow. Hope everyone enjoys the snow atm 👍

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15 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

 

B7A92474-4A98-41F5-97F9-53CC1365D3D8.png

Here we go again, using my face again but generally don't mind as long as it's not associated with Halloween...

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7 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

Heavy Snow and a pint here in Darwen .

15481893844951817911906.jpg

The head on that lager is deeper than the snow.

 

 

*Just kidding*

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35 minutes ago, danm said:

A 3-4cm covering of snow here in suburban north London, in a PM NW’erly is pretty damn good. Shows how little snow events can pop up at short notice. Much more than was forecast. 

Models definitely showing a little more interest today. It looks like we have the potential for shorter term upgrades in the output over the next few days. 

 

C1BCACF1-D170-4AB8-A00D-14F4625DF42C.jpeg

CC9796B5-4BAF-48E5-AE7F-E7A944488613.jpeg

Exactly

 

BFTP

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20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s the forecast From Sunday From Euro4 not bad

5673B376-F254-4A58-BE96-AD9D66AFF171.jpeg

The Euro4 was spot on today for here, no other model was showing snow for here other than the Euro4. It done very well in last years snow events up here also.

The GFS looking great from Tuesday next week onwards with the snow potential pushing further south as we head into Wednesday.

174-7UK.thumb.gif.26a257bb16f14183c0072e37006f57cd.gif

174-574UK.thumb.gif.5a9b9470e55a2dde4c48a71fb5bae5c3.gif

192-7UK.thumb.gif.3c9160ed5752c93b8b99cca6993b228a.gif

192-574UK.thumb.gif.b46ba9dd9fa40ffd8be25b276d94863e.gif

 

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Control run from the 12z ECM gets better and better, 240hrs looks 100X better than the OP run (probably no surprise given it was a big outlier) and then evolves into a cyclonic easterly, really great run.

I wonder where that sits on the ensemble range. Hopefully the 00z ECM op run falls inline at least somewhat.

 

Edited by kold weather
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24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s the forecast From Sunday From Euro4 not bad

5673B376-F254-4A58-BE96-AD9D66AFF171.jpeg

Its totally wrong -I  now have zero lying snow.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Control run from the 12z ECM gets better and better, 240hrs looks 100X better than the OP run (probably no surprise given it was a big outlier) and then evolves into a cyclonic easterly, really great run.

 

Sounds superb, are you able to post any charts?

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1 hour ago, chris55 said:

This could be an omen.....when the recent easterly suddenly disappeared it was the lesser ICON model that first picked it up, around 120 IIRC. Then ECM followed.

 

Not entirely true. ICON was one of the last to show the easterly, but did show it just before the ECM moved away, and then the ICON flipped back. There was a brief period of a few hours where all the models showed the easterly including the ICON. I don't really buy into this whole ICON being the bee's knees business. The GFS on the other hand was pretty resolute on the easterly for a long time but the parallell was not. I'd probably take the GFSp over the ICON to be honest.

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15 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

Heavy Snow and a pint here in Darwen .

15481893844951817911906.jpg

I hope that is at least Stella in that glass?

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