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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

JMA poor too.

Why can't we ever get cross model agreement on a decent cold spell?

Most likely because we don't get many decent cold spells. What you're asking is for there to be an agreement of something that's probably not going to happen.

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That EC op run takes us to the start of February . Horrible chart , if we get to that day 10 chart in tact then it really is Tick Tock tick tock on this winter 🤬🤬

F9DFCEA0-D573-47D7-996A-1BFDA4C867ED.png

Why is it horrible?

 

 

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9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Very much against ensemble guidance.  Let's hope the op is not leading the way here!

Is there any ensemble guidance, not seen the ECM ENS but GEFS were all over the place?!

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7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Very much against ensemble guidance.  Let's hope the op is not leading the way here!

The ensemble guidance and ext eps have been off the ball this last month , they have been looking great for a cold spell for what seems like months and we haven’t seen anything . Bet the op is leading the way it’s so bloody annoying. 😞

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To me, it's a better day 10 chart from the Ecm 12z than last evening..much better actually!!..very good run for scotland in particular with plenty of cold air and snow at times..not everyone lives in england and wales!

Edited by Frosty.
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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Why is it horrible?

 

 

.• cold rain 🤮

• No snow 

• No ice days 

• No cold spell near 

= that’s why it’s horrible . 

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ICON pick of the bunch troughing running SE through uk into Europe while the Azores high stays far enough out west to not hinder the pattern while keeping most of the uk on the cold side of the jet then signs to hopefully build heights North into Greenland later on Bank..

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The ecm will be wrong in that time frame. When the cold comes it's gonna be a quick suprise attack, a sudden flip, and it will be proving long range forecasting of cold just can't be done for our island! 

 

 

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Again we see some bizzare analysis/comments..

The ecm 12z is where you would want it..

As it takes in the impactual falls!!.

Its a decent run again..and some should perhaps look- to its supports 4 the shout!

Has cross flowing features and swinging mlb-stat..

Its as good as i personaly would like to have seen it.

And is of,all of model raw divergence..

We take a step forwards this evening!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Hmmmm, EC 120 is catching my eye.....wouldn’t take much to allow this building cold pool to advance towards us. A very cold Artic/ North Scandinavia high in the making. is the Op being to progressive subsequently allowing the Atlantic to push through?? One to watch.

71FEACF0-A40C-4DED-9207-3C010CA6514B.thumb.png.6e68e406431ee3e073e4491a37173a01.png6B534B58-4401-401E-8C2D-550AEF27057B.thumb.png.6bce188174f963b9f120ab8639186fad.png

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

.• cold rain 🤮

• No snow 

• No ice days 

• No cold spell near 

= that’s why it’s horrible . 

Not massively different overall pattern

models looking for the next move the odds back lows moving south east the fact high pressure still ridges in the Atlantic is good news had it shown -15 easterlies at 216 it would have been gone tomorrow a yway

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Superb 12Z output tonight.

GEM the pick of the bunch but the others all heading in the right direction.

Can't understand all the moaning and whining on here tonight !!

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7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

.• cold rain 🤮

• No snow 

• No ice days 

• No cold spell near 

= that’s why it’s horrible . 

For Scotland that is...no cold rain...snow...maybe ice days...a cold spell...= that’s why I wish folk making sweeping statements that a chart or run is rubbish/Winter is over would maybe state what country they are talking about.

Would make life easier for us all I would imagine. 🎅

 

 

 

 

Edited by Mr Frost
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At closer range, some are going to wake to a wintry scene tomorrow morning, with snow on the ground. 

snowdepth.png

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Pity its the GEM as it follows the UKMO signal from yesterday !

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Ha ha @kold weather @That ECM

 

SNAP!

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😁

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5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

For Scotland that is...no cold rain...snow...maybe ice days...a cold spell...= that’s why I wish folk making sweeping statements that a chart or run is rubbish/Winter is over would maybe state what country they are talking about.

Would make life easier for us all I would imagine. 🎅

Yeah its a classic cleaver, aka a type of set-up where the front straddles the country and doesn't progress. It is literally the most teasing set-up there is as you could literally walk faster than the cold is coming down.

It will eventually make it into the south even, but it will last 12hrs and then get blasted away by westerlies, that's the typical evolution of that pattern.

Its a horrible set-up for those further south, you guys up there should be ok for a little while regardless of the evolution, so maybe share the cold and snow with us down here who may not have been lucky enough to get snow today 🙂

Edited by kold weather
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9 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

For Scotland that is...no cold rain...snow...maybe ice days...a cold spell...= that’s why I wish folk making sweeping statements that a chart or run is rubbish/Winter is over would maybe state what country they are talking about.

Would make life easier for us all I would imagine. 🎅

 

 

 

 

Standard Scottish weather for January . But yes should of been more specific.

Edited by ICE COLD
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9 minutes ago, Purga said:

SNAP!

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😁

This could be an omen.....when the recent easterly suddenly disappeared it was the lesser ICON model that first picked it up, around 120 IIRC. Then ECM followed.

Now this evening we have the lesser GEM picking up this Artic/Scandinavia high and the ECM is following suit.   

Somethings afoot I tell ya ;) 

 

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39 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

second ec op to lift heights up into Europe at a time when they should be dropping ….. hopefully a two run blip which will be gone by tomorrow

i like its polar profile though ...

With our luck this winter, you just know height rises over Europe will become a trend!

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8 minutes ago, Don said:

With our luck this winter, you just know height rises over Europe will become a trend!

It has been a trend to be fair on the GFS today, especially the 12z ensemble suite which had a marked upswing.

Of course the thing that really kills us is that large PV lobe coming back again and forcing the jet back on a westerly motion, forcing any blocking to the east as a quick rate.

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Got a suprise covering here at my elevation so there is hope for all.

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It has been a trend to be fair on the GFS today, especially the 12z ensemble suite which had a marked upswing.

Of course the thing that really kills us is that large PV lobe coming back again and forcing the jet back on a westerly motion, forcing any blocking to the east as a quick rate.

All in all, not good.......

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Well I'll take that ECM mean chart at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.8ee329e27772248d9d26ec64ecb24631.jpg

Significant spread in an awful lot of places, read that as a fair number of excellent charts with really positive blocking, and some meh ones.  Clusters will no doubt give further info.  Fairly low uncertainty re the Euro trough though.

image.thumb.jpg.857eba48e972c62e14b899278fa2799c.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Thank got the mean at T240 looks better 👍

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