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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman said:

UKMO?

Edited accordingly! 

This ECM could be a good run things are nicely alligned, 144 will be revealing. Here’s the UKMO vs ECM comparison 

20AFCA0B-DFE0-4231-92C9-207D892DF198.png

AC3F222E-0AA3-4B37-AA2B-DA07624771E5.gif

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Decent ecm at 120

81134C21-105F-4235-B08C-61EBFD1D545E.thumb.png.86a6b313f094ab32f7c2493e99870d0e.png

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
Just now, karlos1983 said:

Decent ecm at 120

81134C21-105F-4235-B08C-61EBFD1D545E.thumb.png.86a6b313f094ab32f7c2493e99870d0e.png

And if you just rotate your screen 10 degrees to the right the PV has become a squirrel 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The ECM and UKMO similar in terms of broad detail at day 5 , re Russian high but former has a little tease with the flow backing towards the ne for northern areas and look at that deep cold just across the North Sea!

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Nice little ridge being thrown up the west side of Greenland, similar to the UKM 144 chart, need that low to our north to dive south cleanly now.

9E18E9A0-DB18-42BB-A842-6523CAE9A3E1.png

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

And easterly chance pushed away at t144, this winter is never going to deliver proper deep cold, think today's snow is the best we will get. 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM and UKMO similar in terms of broad detail at day 5 , re Russian high but former has a little tease with the flow backing towards the ne for northern areas and look at that deep cold just across the North Sea!

good agreement between gfs ,gfsp and ecm at day 6 

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted

Sumo standoff between cold cyclonic flow to the north and mid Atlantic ridge to the south continues at 144 on ECM. But how much longer can this flow be maintained? Staying power surely with the block. When the snap comes it will be quick to change....

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

good agreement between gfs ,gfsp and ecm at day 6 

Upstream maybe but the GFS has a different orientation of the Russian high .

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Storme Enthusiast

Storme

Posted
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Wind, Rain, Sun.....but mainly cooler weather!
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

These are model based though. Radar is correct in terms of ppn, but the ppn type is determined by the conditions that were predicted at that time. 

Ok thank you. I am still learning stuff. :oldsmile:

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Well the ECM continues the trend to edge an easterly into the far east of the country. Interesting trend.

Hopefully we will see the ECM still develop a decent attempt at some form of northerly blocking, but we shall see!

Catacol, IF the band ever snaps?!

Edited by kold weather
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Upstream maybe but the GFS has a different orientation of the Russian high .

fair enough - to our west then …..and things continue to be mobile for the time being ………..

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

168hrs that low should be the one that helps to trigger at least some sort of colder shot. Arctic pattern looks good for an Azores ridge around 216hrs to get going, but of course I'm sure it'll find a way to mess that up!

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted

168hrs it's gone pear shaped like yesterday with that deep low ploughing through the block like it's not there.

Next!

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

GEM going for it on the 12z another easterly chace showing its hand???  

Screenshot_20190122-183900.png

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
7 minutes ago, Storme said:

Ok thank you. I am still learning stuff. 

No worries, thought I’d answer rather than skip past your post

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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted
45 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Lol the gem goes for it . Nice run 

8D9F5480-1785-45F3-B442-E22E5242BF26.png

16EC47F7-FD78-4580-A800-0FBE94611535.png

99DDFDFF-6137-4C4A-9882-3936C5F21467.png

That little pocket/circle of milder uppers will be sat over my house at t+2hrs.

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sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

And easterly chance pushed away at t144, this winter is never going to deliver proper deep cold, think today's snow is the best we will get. 

Most of Your posts don't make sense

Is it possible to back these up with a chart or evidence. 

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

  This ECM is like pulling teeth.  It might eventually get there but it's painful and tortuous!

Edited by mulzy
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM T192, and we see the warm air advection start to build heights towards Greenland , good run this await the next frame:

image.thumb.jpg.5e7fd30286f25c47721bfb635c966a4c.jpg

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

168hrs that low should be the one that helps to trigger at least some sort of colder shot. Arctic pattern looks good for an Azores ridge around 216hrs to get going, but of course I'm sure it'll find a way to mess that up!

Great spot Kold, spot on

image.thumb.png.47c7ba6443c99d99468fbd170f68ff07.png

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