Cold hunt - models and chat

[The Beast From The East]

26 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

well the thread now has 426 members reading it.... indication that a snowy spell may be incoming lol

 

I thought the same lol but I believe it's been changed to show how many members online over all the threads..

Could be wrong ☺❄

[Catacol]

25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the SSW downwelling is beginning to cause havoc with the modelling .

The more influential Russian high has returned on the UKMO which it had last night but dropped this morning.

Agree - somewhere in the next few runs a big boom chart is going to emerge....and not in the extended. Next week looking like it could get interesting.......

[frosty ground]

Takes a little longer but the cold PM air starts to sink south, blown all the cold air away from the east in the process

 

[Panayiotis]

4 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

Yes. I’d prefer those models the other way round, frankly. 

UKMO the preferred solution as there is less energy (or ‘purple colours’) over Greenland. One thing that is an emerging signal from the models is that the low to the SE of Greenland is acting as a drainage of the PV from that area. Although these lows are trouble-some, it’s well needed in this situation to build heights towards Greenland.

[frosty ground]

Artic High anyone?

[chionomaniac]

That’s a lot of snow getting wasted over sea......

[pureasthedriven]

2 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

UKMO the preferred solution as there is less energy (or ‘purple colours’) over Greenland. One thing that is an emerging signal from the models is that the low to the SE of Greenland is acting as a drainage of the PV from that area. Although these lows are trouble-some, it’s well needed in this situation to build heights towards Greenland.

Indeed - being pithy, I neglected to explain that I have a little more faith in the GFS than UKMO in light of recent modelling but I appreciate that’s broadly qualitative. 

[chionomaniac]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Agree - somewhere in the next few runs a big boom chart is going to emerge....and not in the extended. Next week looking like it could get interesting.......

Yes, when we have such large divergences over a near time frame then big blocking charts can come quickly in the medium range rather than the day 10 that we are used to

[frosty ground]

That low is being squeezed to death under two areas of high pressure

These are Boom charts 

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That low is being squeezed to death under two areas of high pressure

These are Boom charts 

That's going to be perfection for SW England.

[Day 10]

Heights slowly increasing over Southern Greenland, a good trend or another false dawn?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

That's going to be perfection for SW England.

Its going to be perfection for the whole of the UK in a minute.

[frosty ground]

Taken at  face value there are more Kinks in that North easterly flow than a certain type of internet domain. 

 

[Harsh Climate]

High pressure over alaska trying to link up with our russian high, could get a complete split of th northern hemisphere polar vortex soon

 

[Mucka]

Very strong evidence now that the UK will be in frigid NE/E flow come the turn of the month and more persistent and deeper cold is looming after what will be a chilly week or so with a wintry mix anyway.

With the disappointment of the last failed attempt well behind us there is plenty to be happy and optimistic about for cold weather fans.

What could possibly go wrong?

Edited January 22, 2019 by Mucka

[Biensie]

I’m struggling to see why the model thread was divided... because this thread is much the same as the last (which is fine)  unless of course someone stupidly mentions zonal, mild or rain. The other thread seems to be dedicated to Knocker?

Edited January 22, 2019 by Biensie

[Harsh Climate]

Check out the face lol

[frosty ground]

Just now, Biensie said:

I’m struggling to see why the model thread was devided... because this thread is much the same as the last (which is fine)  unless of course someone stupidly mentions zonal, mild or rain. The other thread seems to be dedicated to Knocker?

Knocker Deserves his own thread to be fair his informative post can get lost

[MP-R]

15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That low is being squeezed to death under two areas of high pressure

These are Boom charts 

That’s a potentially decent slider if a little further south.

[frosty ground]

Here we go again....


Let the countdown begin 

Edited January 22, 2019 by frosty ground

[Cloud 10]

GFS day 10 Europe...

 

 

Meanwhile in Australia....

 

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS 12z is a stonker - snow chances throughout the run.

[ITSY]

I'm sorry but a +28 isotherm should never be due north of a -6 one. There is something very wrong with this chart.  

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

.

Meanwhile in Australia...

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

We have to go back to February 2013 for the last time arctic temperatures were well below average. Makes a change from the crazy mild weather there 2 years ago.

Indeed....

could be the interesting going forward.... 

 

BFTP 

[IDO]

Crazy good GFS run and all will be forgiven if the upcoming cold develops along these lines. Ends with -12 uppers over th North and incoming -16c!

Ice days for some with snow pummelling the NE/east coast...

JFF.