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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Yes as shaky has said GFS already looking different, agreeing with TEITS here that models are indeed struggling early on still and may even be a few surprises in the coming days as they hopefully get to grips with the SSW down welling.

 

Possible something here?

gfs-0-132.png?6

 

Edited by Snowman.
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Yes Shaky,

Comparing 6z to yesterday. A huge shift west of the high.

gfs-0-114.thumb.png.91ca2c9c71eac2b10574eef5352b0b6f.pnggfs-0-138.thumb.png.29f4e86607f97161d2ff90a2d2ec6015.png

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Big push west of scandi high on gfs 06z at just 96 hours!!

Indeed. With regards to the ecm debilt ens, just look at that for just 4 days out. A high degree of uncertainty. Minus 7 to plus 8 at ground level - at just t96! Must be some easterlies in there. 

pluim_06260_0_00_60.png

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Yes Shaky,

Comparing 6z to yesterday. A huge shift west of the high.

gfs-0-114.thumb.png.91ca2c9c71eac2b10574eef5352b0b6f.pnggfs-0-138.thumb.png.29f4e86607f97161d2ff90a2d2ec6015.png

Its crazy!!even the cold spell this week its more of a struggle to clear compared to yesterdays runs!!could it actually stay cold across england without actually getting mild before the next push of colder uppers come south!!interesting 12zs coming up!!

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

Yes Shaky,

Comparing 6z to yesterday. A huge shift west of the high.

gfs-0-114.thumb.png.91ca2c9c71eac2b10574eef5352b0b6f.pnggfs-0-138.thumb.png.29f4e86607f97161d2ff90a2d2ec6015.png

I can't believe/ fathom how quite the model thread has become. Its like the party has just stopped. We have 'snow potential' and its still January. Ok no beast from the east but even so...

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Just take a look at the 96 hour chart from yesterday to todays 72 hour chart from gfs!!cold air still hanging on and no more westerly flow across the uk and we are stuck in a col!!surprised steve murr aint mentioned nothing yet!!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Certainly is a lot of uncertainty out there in terms of certain key features.

The GFS ensembles in particular are all a mess bar maybe two key things:

1: still plenty of LP's coming from the NW

2: General trend of some rising pressure to our north, to some extent.

Other than that, seems like the models really are struggling with the various somewhat conflicting set-ups due that stubborn PV lobe but tropical forcing/strat forcing suggesting pressure should be rising quite close by with ridging from the Atlantic.

Stewfox, I think people jus don't believe anything the models are showing at the moment, huge amounts of apathy here.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Just take a look at the 96 hour chart from yesterday to todays 72 hour chart from gfs!!cold air still hanging on and no more westerly flow across the uk and we are stuck in a col!!surprised steve murr aint mentioned nothing yet!!

Think even Steve's exhausted this season lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Just take a look at the 96 hour chart from yesterday to todays 72 hour chart from gfs!!cold air still hanging on and no more westerly flow across the uk and we are stuck in a col!!surprised steve murr aint mentioned nothing yet!!

a little way back steve said he was having a break for a few days

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
32 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

6z this morning at +48, comparing to the 12z yesterday for the same time.

Perhaps won't be significant overall but a quite an increase (considering the timeframe) in heights to the north/north east and the high more amplified. See the ligher blue almost making its way to the wedge NE of us.

 

Absolutely. I commented on this last night. The pub run picked up on a loosening of the noose around Iceland and above with regard to lower pressure and shortwave activity. Good to see continuity, we may see nice surprises in the short term before the main course in February.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn

Come back Steve!! Please!! The models look good again!! It's real this time we promise!

Edited by Jackski4
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Posted
  • Location: Sevenoaks, Kent
  • Location: Sevenoaks, Kent
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Just take a look at the 96 hour chart from yesterday to todays 72 hour chart from gfs!!cold air still hanging on and no more westerly flow across the uk and we are stuck in a col!!surprised steve murr aint mentioned nothing yet!!

Steve mentioned last night on the SE regional discussion, that he is go karting today, and he expects sleet in the SE tonight. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
11 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Yes Shaky,

Comparing 6z to yesterday. A huge shift west of the high.

gfs-0-114.thumb.png.91ca2c9c71eac2b10574eef5352b0b6f.pnggfs-0-138.thumb.png.29f4e86607f97161d2ff90a2d2ec6015.png

Indeed it looks like the high is further west because that LP system to our North is weaker. The Jet has buckled on a more SE trajectory earlier on the most recent chart.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png

Oh alright then, let's have another dance with some very deep cold teasingly close to our east...!

An interesting adjustment but largely a result of a cut-off low over W. Asia moving further west, which is a notoriously unreliable feature.

I wonder if GFS will see the trough disruption such a deep cold pool should force? Given the amplification taking place across the N. Atlantic the results could be very entertaining.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That chart looks absolutely brilliant. 

gfsnh-0-192.png

Unfortunately whilst that sector south of Greenland keeps popping up with little lows and short waves there will be no sustainable blocking, go through this run you’ll lose count of the amount of times the ridge looks like it wants to try and go north and a little spoiler runs over the top of it. Frustrating!

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Unfortunately whilst that sector south of Greenland keeps popping up with little lows and short waves there will be no sustainable blocking, go through this run you’ll lose count of the amount of times the ridge looks like it wants to try and go north and a little spoiler runs over the top of it. Frustrating!

Is this another Wedge-gate saga forming on the 6z

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