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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Much but that was not a hard task 😩😩 

Going the right way then 😂

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Lack of input from GP lately is rather worrying!

Edited by snowblizzard
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16 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Ignore me was looking at completely wrong charts not even from ECM - Its early 😴

Ha ha, don't do that, I thought I'd been looking at the wrong run and had to go back and check!

ECM is actually very good indeed. Full of the dreaded pot****al word.

Bottom line though, better to have it than not, we will never get a decent cold spell without it. i.e. in a mobile zonal set up. So may as well have it and hope things fall for us down the line.

It's like the new striker who keeps getting in scoring positions and missing. Either sooner or later things will turn in his/our favour (or it'll turn out he can't hit a barn door no matter how many scoring opportunities he gets presented with!).

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17 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Going the right way then 😂

As long as lows keep dropping nw to se there is the opportunity for blocking to develop. We are very much in the game as we have been for awhile now. Don’t let the “nothing has worked” brigade convince you that therefore nothing can.👍 it can always go “wrong” and we’ve seen enough examples of that so far but better to have chances than a nh profile that offers little chance. Frustrating of course. As nick said, there are snow opportunities for favoured areas between now and t240.👍👍

 

^^^ good analogy s4👍

Edited by That ECM
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Exactly Nick, it is somewhat of a high risk high reward thing, if the pieces do line up then we will get very snowy indeed and it maybe one of those rare cases that we get the snow cover BEFORE we get much deeper cold. 

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5 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Lack of input from GP is rather worrying!

Yes...and also Mr Murr....To me no Murr means no Brrrrrr 🥶

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Exactly Nick, it is somewhat of a high risk high reward thing, if the pieces do line up then we will get very snowy indeed and it maybe one of those rare cases that we get the snow cover BEFORE we get much deeper cold. 

The uk hasn’t been great at high risk this year though.

lets hope this one counts down better

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2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

The uk hasn’t been great at high risk this year though.

lets hope this one counts down better

Got to treat each situation differently though, which I know really is difficult as many do rightly feel let down. I'm still going for a strong northern blocking 5-10th, if it comes earlier, then great!

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10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

As long as lows keep dropping nw to se there is the opportunity for blocking to develop. We are very much in the game as we have been for awhile now. Don’t let the “nothing has worked” brigade convince you that therefore nothing can.👍 it can always go “wrong” and we’ve seen enough examples of that so far but better to have chances than a nh profile that offers little chance. Frustrating of course. As nick said, there are snow opportunities for favoured areas between now and t240.👍👍

 

^^^ good analogy s4👍

I remain extremely positive, background signals amazing, very good charts this morning. What's not to like?

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I think a certain degree of model fatigue has set in but we need to keep the faith folks!

The last few EPS has shown a significant weakening of the Canadian vortex in the outer reaches.  That allied with higher heights across the polar fields in our sector and the low heights over Europe gives us a chance.  No promises but we are still in the game.

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Well I for one have seen upgrades ahead.  If you hoped to wake up to 12,000 mile Easterlies from Japan, go back to bed.....there will not be any HLB before Feb that will directly influence the U.K.

The diving troughs on NW/SE axis is what we have and have coming.....this Fri and Sat will see a westerly milder feel before the next bout.  But the models this morning have sharpened up this and for me looks a colder outlook.  We need the troughing diving deeper into Europe which at some stage opens up the back door for Easterlies to develop with heights rising to NE, and the sharper the NW/SE axis the sharper the ridging in the Atlantic.  Although no deep cold on offer yet, but there looks to me some good chances of decent snowfall ahead before we get deep cold encroaches (and we have to be honest we MAY NOT get any deep cold as this could be the ongoing repeating pattern).....I’m happy with this mornings runs.

 

BFTP

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22 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I think a certain degree of model fatigue has set in but we need to keep the faith folks!

The last few EPS has shown a significant weakening of the Canadian vortex in the outer reaches.  That allied with higher heights across the polar fields in our sector and the low heights over Europe gives us a chance.  No promises but we are still in the game.

Yeah, had these charts been fresh without the baggage of failure there would be plenty of excitement.

As you say some good trends l. There is still some considerable amount of uncertainty With how the Atlantic responds. I'm am feeling more confident with regards to the blocking forming from the Atlantic with a slant to the east. Whether or not that's enough, we will see!

Edited by kold weather
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As many of the models have been so unreliable I understand that many forecasters are resorting to the OUIJA model.

In answer to the question will there be any snow this winter? it has come back   “F All”

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Yes certainly agree about model fatigue. The current extended range looks promising but it has done since Xmas without delivering on that promise away from the usual high ground or transient smatterings elsewhere. So much more muted reactions are natural even with good looking charts.

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32 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I think a certain degree of model fatigue has set in but we need to keep the faith folks!

The last few EPS has shown a significant weakening of the Canadian vortex in the outer reaches.  That allied with higher heights across the polar fields in our sector and the low heights over Europe gives us a chance.  No promises but we are still in the game.

Little to add - more ridging means cooler upppers again .... still think the downwelling is causing continuity issues 

Edited by bluearmy
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43 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I think a certain degree of model fatigue has set in but we need to keep the faith folks!

The last few EPS has shown a significant weakening of the Canadian vortex in the outer reaches.  That allied with higher heights across the polar fields in our sector and the low heights over Europe gives us a chance.  No promises but we are still in the game.

Yep agree with this. I think we’re all worn out by the last two months of model watching, and the failed easterly of this week was a kick in the guts. 

However, there is plenty of time left and plenty of potential. Just because it hasn’t happened yet, doesn’t mean it won’t happen over the next month. 

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Following on from my post last night. Im still not convinced the models are correct at even +96 to +144 let alone much further on. This is with regards to how the low at +96 interacts with the blocking to the NE. Compare the difference between say the UKMO & GEM at +144.

UKMOPEU00_144_1.pngGEMOPEU00_144_1.png

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14 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Following on from my post last night. Im still not convinced the models are correct at even +96 to +144 let alone much further on. This is with regards to how the low at +96 interacts with the blocking to the NE. Compare the difference between say the UKMO & GEM at +144.

UKMOPEU00_144_1.pngGEMOPEU00_144_1.png

I would follow the ICON been doing rather well this spell.

icon-0-99.png

icon-0-120.png

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LITTLE MODELS:  Gosh that was so much fun winding up the humans about a potential snowmageddon.  Can we do it again? Please...please...please?

BIG MODELS: Well....ok then...but remember the rules! Always make it start at least 5 or 6 days away!

LITTLE MODELS.... yay!  Come on everybody...let's do this!

ICON.... Shall I start teasing with my 6z run first?

ECM.... Good idea little one. Then I'll come in at 12z and appear to back you up...

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8 minutes ago, booferking said:

I would follow the ICON been doing rather well this spell.

icon-0-99.png

icon-0-120.png

I agree. The icon was having none of it with regards to the easterly. Look at what it shows now at only 5 days out. Look at those uppers to our north east. I am a big believer in things balancing themselves out. Coldies have suffered immensely this season so far. I have a feeling things are going to tip the other way quite rapidly now. Fun times in the near future for the coldies. 

iconnh-0-120.png

iconnh-1-120.png

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6z this morning at +48, comparing to the 12z yesterday for the same time.

Perhaps won't be significant overall but a quite an increase (considering the timeframe) in heights to the north/north east and the high more amplified. See the ligher blue almost making its way to the wedge NE of us.

Today

gfsnh-0-48.thumb.png.5827b54dd54c285dae0ba917c7d577c6.png

Yesterday 12z

gfsnh-0-66.thumb.png.5bf25b142cbb1d395e6cd6783228ac4d.png

Edited by bradythemole
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