Cold hunt - models and chat

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GFS 6z operational / GEFS 6z mean in the longer term there are certainly signs that early March could produce something with a more wintry flavour..with a chance of snow for some areas!❄

Edited February 19, 2019 by Frosty.

[IDO]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The models seem to gathering momentum for high pressure to get further north .

Whats lacking at the moment is enough energy disrupting se. You can see on the day ten GFS 06 hrs run the issue there.

However given the overnight changes we shouldn’t assume this is the end of the story .

The latest update re the MJO suggested the ECM forecast is more likely to verify than the GFS/GEFS as the latter tends to overdo Rossby wave activity and those aren’t coupled with the ocean.

And the GFS and GEFS were completely wrong re the recent MJO movements.

 

The ECM goes through phase 8 to phase 3 in 14 days at low amplitude. Bearing in mind the lack of MJO feedback this winter, isn't this likely to be a transient fluid pattern?

I agree to ECM more likely to be correct. I just think that the MJO isn't a driver for wintry UK weather at the moment.

[IDO]

ECM week 3 probability, warm or colder than climate:

source: https://twitter.com/jfd118/status/1097837552579559424

Week 2 even higher probability.

 

[SMU]

27 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECM week 3 probability, warm or colder than climate:

source: https://twitter.com/jfd118/status/1097837552579559424

Week 2 even higher probability.

 

Assuming thats from the ECM 46 that almost secures it being colder

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

But you never know, I’m hopeful too

  oh don’t get me wrong I am trying to be hopeful how ever looking at the model runs these are worthy of late spring not late winter as I said I am trying to have last bit of hope but going by this winter I don’t hold out much.

[Paul]

Locking this one for now, fresh thread here: