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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Too many off topic posts just recently. Please get back on topic.

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52 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Not cold enough for low land snow in March those uppers would be modified as they

Cross the Irish sea at least -10 uppers required.

C.S

Well -8 uppers are close! 

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We just can't get an undercut, if we could then lightening would strike twice in two successive springs, just look at the cold pooling on the GFS to the East.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We just can't get an undercut, if we could then lightening would strike twice in two successive springs, just look at the cold pooling on the GFS to the East.

There has never been any appetite to split the flow effectively to our south and drive any low heights into Iberia and France, save the odd weak piece of brief upper troughing  

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Hmm - that’s quite the jump toward a more negative N Atlantic trough tilt in a weeks time from the GFS 18z.

Not much modelling support for it to become enough to bring cold from the northeast but given the current MJO behaviour it’d be foolish to discount the possibility - something to keep a wary (or should that be weary after this winter’s antics!) eye on.

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Amazing warm looking week ahead.  Maybe the recent SSW has downwelled to ground level UK this time lol

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19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There has never been any appetite to split the flow effectively to our south and drive any low heights into Iberia and France, save the odd weak piece of brief upper troughing  

A aspect where the peculiar persistent Nina-like interference has really been making itself known; take that away and either neutral or Nino type MJO responses to an amplified P7-P8 crossing are both strongly tied to heights lowering over Europe via a split jet.

Fascinating times - if only this unusual situation had not proved so frustrating for so many of us.

We could really do with a more straightforward ENSO-linked atmospheric state by next winter so that 2-6 week range guidance (both modelling-derived and technically-based) can stand on firmer ground again.

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Number 4 for me please - frontal snow moving swiftly down the spine of the country.

image.thumb.png.65b22c39c5225a0dc90de135da56fc29.png

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7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

A aspect where the peculiar persistent Nina-like interference has really been making itself known; take that away and either neutral or Nino type MJO responses to an amplified P7-P8 crossing are both strongly tied to heights lowering over Europe via a split jet.

Fascinating times - if only this unusual situation had not proved so frustrating for so many of us.

We could really do with a more straightforward ENSO-linked atmospheric state by next winter so that 2-6 week range guidance (both modelling-derived and technically-based) can stand on firmer ground again.

We could do with some snow by next winter as well!

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Looks familiar, very cold on both flanks! 

15mletk_th.jpg

gfs-1-384.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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Azores properly in charge, dominating, everything goes Southeast or Middleast. Typical late Feb-early March pattern for Greece and Turkey. Since 2002 it's the same thing with 2-3 exceptions. 

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16 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Looks familiar, very cold on both flanks! 

15mletk_th.jpg

gfs-1-384.png

That just shows how difficult it is to get cold over here. Such an awkward position to be in. 

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4 minutes ago, Zesyph said:

That just shows how difficult it is to get cold over here. Such an awkward position to be in. 

It's nature, it's weather, it's chaos. They have the same discussions in Southeast Europe when we get the cold or everytime it goes far west or far east for them. The issue is mainly that we have too much energy in the East Canada/US Coast that doesn't let this doomed Azores high to position itself mid Atlantic. 

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Outlook - Trending towards a NW/SE split and very warm for a time

The NH 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UK chart

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.499b722c170ff47cabce3655623daa97.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.383ec609c9731501960ab1344a4480df.gif04.thumb.gif.8d0e1b91a72b016240dbb093c57b419b.gif

The low to the west of Scotland slowly drifts north east during today but bits and pieces of old occlusions will continue to bring heavy showers to N. Ireland and western Scotland, coalescing at times into longer spells of rain. At the other end of the country, in the south east, the current gloom will continue with further outbreaks of rain during the day courtesy of the old cold front still being a nuisance  Elsewhere sunny intervals but perhaps the odd shower. Temps a little above average

PPVE89.thumb.gif.da6ee11e4ed06a0d3cac6012fabcd33b.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_4.thumb.png.300c3917a76cc3bc12bd4285870e0b09.pngp09.thumb.png.6b7ff66661686ea362138337a9471da5.pngp12.thumb.png.2db96c162fd377b771d2bc1561be26b1.pngp15.thumb.png.728f0f23cf33081b10dfd064cf1c0980.pngp18.thumb.png.edfedabbfb1e6646581e2da644b273b5.png

Tonight the low will continue to track north east to be west of Norway and the cold front in the south also finally clears. Thus a generally clearer and colder night, maybe just a touch of frost in places, and showers confined to the north west

PPVG89.thumb.gif.256c76506f4e5e3e51014c2d569c3cc8.gifmin.thumb.png.2757504905aea6452a3f7f1230e4a6dc.pngr03.thumb.png.fc200ddb58b29b218a75db4de6cda633.png

So a chilly start to tomorrow but then a fairly pleasant day for most with lighter winds, courtesy of a very transient ridge, but the nest frontal system approaching from the west with bring rain and strengthening winds to N. Ireland and western Scotland by 1400. And this will spread east and effect northern England and Wales through the afternoon. Temps still a tad above average

PPVI89.thumb.gif.5687c6e357e862127b418e375372f933.gifrp14.thumb.png.267919c0e5d8fe8ab2ca3389c54103cc.pngrp18.thumb.png.dd469456701614244f3e5f6af57d116e.png

It will continue wet and windy in the north through Tuesday night and Wednesday as the complex system tracks north of Scotland with the south of the country remaining dry. temps trending well above average. But to the west the oft mentioned deep low gas arrived on the scene and is 939mb in mid Atlantic

gfs_z500_vort_natl_11.thumb.png.a2b2e62df986126f17d267cdff41b7f1.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.7ab1fde25dfa02d1fb39825ac35e3c10.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.ada79ea94a923fde0ef8732326486ddb.gif

Over Thursday and Friday amplification occurs with the Atlantic trough digging a fair way south and in the process initiating a long South westerly fetch into the UK and thus some very warm air So a very warm couple of days with max temps in the lap of the gods but certainly mid to high teens. Any rain rain confined to the far north west

gfs_z500_vort_natl_15.thumb.png.109c2c8d81da22031b7022d76612ab64.pnggfs_t850a_natl_15.thumb.png.10b24a641da7226101866e3e6be80af6.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.f08d8802eabcdf8c1788a0a3e553b4f6.gif

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.c28d407acf4bcb8926d1d3df761a460f.pnggfs_t850a_natl_19.thumb.png.8089bd6997afa62abe59866cc89b5c3d.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.44f4036c2998a3c6e1a392abb9e499bb.gif

Wrong thread 😲 Will the string of garlic and the silver crucifix be sufficient?

Edited by knocker
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ridiculously mild weather on the way later in the week,the models picked up on this beyond the reliable time frame and of course it’s verified ,if it had been bitterly cold air ,most likely it would not have verified 9 out of ten times 😡

Thats what’s so frustrating about u.k. in the winter,always mild weather will verify cold weather hardly ever.

Looking forward to a cold and wretched spring when the weather gods decide the time is right for payback.from all of this.

Think the record could be challenged for february highest ever temperature,so at least some interest even if it’s for the completely opposite of the thread title 😒

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Might be looking at my first open water swim of the year in March instead of April with the amount of warming taking place now 😳🏊🏽‍♂️

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Models firming up on a few day's ago trends.

HP dominated for the UK till D9-D10, then sinking high.

Post D10; The wedge of heights over the Asia-Pac side means the Atlantic side gets the main drag of the PV circulating to our north.

So, zonal, with PM bursts. Lots of cold air still bottled up in the Arctic due to the failure of the downwelling, plenty of cold uppers available for cold rain in the south and a wintry mix, up north.

No sustainable cold ATM forecast as no HLB'ing.

D16 mean:  gensnh-21-1-360.thumb.png.af502ec9181df9f1de8f128f83610539.png

So the start of March, maybe looking at worst case scenario, changeable, unsettled and cool.

Edited by IDO

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