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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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26 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I am posting pictures of a mysterious white substance that covers the landscape -- it is possible that you may encounter this before March. 

20181231_155958A.jpg

Yes, if you happen to live 300 metres above sea level!

Edited by snowblizzard
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52 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The pv is not just gonna be built back up  in 24 hours . It can take weeks . Not to worry about that yet . I’m sure there meto oulook is based around this . 

As we saw december 2017 the pv can recover very fast

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Just now, ArHu3 said:

As we saw december 2017 the pv can recover very fast

Fine by me if we have the euro low in situ..

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35 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I keep reading since December we missed the first bite of the Cherry🍒, I'm sure we've missed about 10 bites of that cherry🍒.. I'm surprised theres any of that cherry left.. 🍒🍒🙈

The thing is, too few or too many cherries don't make Beasts From The East an every year event or even five to ten-year. One should look at the past in part when predicting the future and t+10080 minute charts *(yes, that really is only seven days) and beyond predicting Snowmageddon don't really do it for me, they never have! WIth my feet firmly on the ground, I learn to enjoy the reliable and accept it may well be correct but beyond this, I order truckloads of salt when viewing such charts.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

You will be digging yourself out by day 10 if EC det is anywhere near right matey 🙂

Lets just hope it upgrades a bit this time like with that Greenland/North Atlantic high building more of a block and giving us slightly colder uppers, and of course NOT do the NASTY on us again at D5/6, that in itself would make a refreshing change.

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There's very strong cross model support for a cold plunge, indeed several cold plunges starting next weekend and going on for as far as the eye can see which would be riches indeed compared to the tripe we've had so far this winter..apologies to those who like tripe!😉😄:cold:

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A bit of an exaggeration - those charts have verified many a time in the last 8 years and all you get at 600ft is 2 inches of slush, surrounding areas at 1000ft get 4 foot drifts though.

Congratulations on 10,000 posts!

I'm guessing the ECM charts aren't wetting your appetite just yet because the uppers aren't overly cold. I wouldn't worry about this too much just yet. Let's say they were to come off - remember upper air temperatures don't directly equate into whether any precipitation will fall as rain, sleet, wet snow or snow. In a similar respect that sometimes at 0.1'C on the ground, it can fall as rain, whereas 2'C and it can fall as huge heavy snow flakes making a quick accumulation. 

-5 Uppers in my experience are often just about seductive into the precipitation falling as snow but I've known even colder uppers to produce rain - it all depends on a number of factors that are only worth worrying about closer to the time - but if that ECM did come off for 7-10 days time I'd be expecting at least something. 

What's certain is you definitely do not need boneshaking -10 or below uppers for a decent fall. Whilst we all love that type of scenario we can't afford to be too picky!

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7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

As we saw december 2017 the pv can recover very fast

There was no SSW in December 2017.

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2 minutes ago, Paul said:

I know it's fun to look further ahead, and sustained cold/snow is the pot of gold many are hoping for. But Monday night/Tuesday doesn't exactly look terrible for snow chances. 

Latest from the netwx-sr

netwxsr-snow.gif

Thanks Paul, interesting to see lots of snow showers packing in behind the front..

 

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1 minute ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Congratulations on 10,000 posts!

I'm guessing the ECM charts aren't wetting your appetite just yet because the uppers aren't overly cold. I wouldn't worry about this too much just yet. Let's say they were to come off - remember upper air temperatures don't directly equate into whether any precipitation will fall as rain, sleet, wet snow or snow. In a similar respect that sometimes at 0.1'C on the ground, it can fall as rain, whereas 2'C and it can fall as huge heavy snow flakes making a quick accumulation. 

-5 Uppers in my experience are often just about seductive into the precipitation falling as snow but I've known even colder uppers to produce rain - it all depends on a number of factors that are only worth worrying about closer to the time - but if that ECM did come off for 7-10 days time I'd be expecting at least something. 

What's certain is you definitely do not need boneshaking -10 or below uppers for a decent fall. Whilst we all love that type of scenario we can't afford to be too picky!

I just don't like this marginal stuff -  i know it can be snow but i just seem to always fall on the wrong side - anyway - jre - the 10000 post - thanks, although 90% of them are just banter and one liners - anyway i have made more that that - at least 500-1000 have been knocked off -same to everyone - they streamlined the website to make it run faster, i remember my post count going down from about 6300 to about 5700 - im sure it did.

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Paul, interesting to see lots of snow showers packing in behind the front..

 

Yep, among other places, shows the Cheshire Gap doing its thing quite nicely.

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1 minute ago, Paul said:

I know it's fun to look further ahead, and sustained cold/snow is the pot of gold many are hoping for. Monday night/Tuesday doesn't exactly look terrible for snow chances. 

Latest from the netwx-sr

netwxsr-snow.gif

People dismissing this as snow showers only settling over hills. 

I’ll be stunned if that is the case. I have seen snow in far worse parameters, and my elevation is only 146 m. Hardly up in the hills!

All parameters look good for showers to be of snow away from very low lying areas, and troughs in the flow will pepp up the shower distribution.

Same applies to the outlook over the next week or so. North Westerlies may not be great for the south or at sea level but anywhere further north and west and with a little elevation may see something. Just not a big freeze.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I just don't like this marginal stuff -  i know it can be snow but i just seem to always fall on the wrong side - anyway - jre - the 10000 post - thanks, although 90% of them are just banter and one liners - anyway i have made more that that - at least 500-1000 have been knocked off -same to everyone - they streamlined the website to make it run faster, i remember my post count going down from about 6300 to about 5700 - im sure it did.

I understand what you mean by 'marginal' - so often is the case it just seems both the uppers and the ground temps are literally like 1'C or 0.5'C higher than what we want to get a good covering, tomorrow night's a good example - but on occasion it comes off and I think given the possibilities in the next 10 days aside from a milder interlude later this week sooner or later something of note will happen! We'll see.. 

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Just now, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I understand what you mean by 'marginal' - so often is the case it just seems both the uppers and the ground temps are literally like 1'C or 0.5'C higher than what we want to get a good covering, tomorrow night's a good example - but on occasion it comes off and I think given the possibilities in the next 10 days aside from a milder interlude later this week sooner or later something of note will happen! We'll see.. 

Some of the very best snowfalls fall int the marginal category 🙂

If we dont see at least 2 or 3 days out of the next 10 with laying snow after viewing EC /GFS i want a refund..

PS nice to see another local poster, i'm lees/springhead- we both have hills of 350m + within a couple of miles..

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Hopefully see something snow wise in the next few wks.

Just shows all those background signals and promising charts ect mean diddly squat.

Awful winter so far. All the potential and bulling up.........

Back to chasing 7+day charts for a decent cold snowy spell.

Edited by joggs
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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Some of the very best snowfalls fall int the marginal category 🙂

If we dont see at least 2 or 3 days out of the next 10 with laying snow after viewing EC /GFS i want a refund..

PS nice to see another local poster, i'm lees/springhead- we both have hills of 350m + within a couple of miles..

One other thing about marginal snowfall events too - often when they happen overnight - I go to bed dismissing the chance of waking up to a white landscape - but once or twice I'm mistaken and it has indeed stuck! That's a possibility for tomorrow night's event and as one or two have mentioned, I feel that even away from high ground e.g. above 250m there may be a few surprises in store - more so from remaining snow showers around after the main band has passed through between 00:00-03:00. Given though - on face value I'm not going to lie everything looks just a touch too mild for a decent covering and a tricky start to Tuesday's rushhour but you never know. 

 

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean has the azores high displaced west..

It has the Euro low-

It has pressure rising West Iceland/Southern Greenland-

In short, bye bye mild weather ..

mean at day 10

image.thumb.png.3209418c9e3c5cd8cbb8959abfad9edd.png

Always day 10, still waiting for real cold shot, hasn't it been day 10 since late Nov?

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15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

People dismissing this as snow showers only settling over hills. 

I’ll be stunned if that is the case. I have seen snow in far worse parameters, and my elevation is only 146 m. Hardly up in the hills!

All parameters look good for showers to be of snow away from very low lying areas, and troughs in the flow will pepp up the shower distribution.

 

1

Indeed. The Beeb showed snow showers by way of their symbols post-front too and also mentioned snow chances on Wednesday as well.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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9 minutes ago, joggs said:

Hopefully see something snow wise in the next few wks.

Just shows all those background signals and promising charts ect mean diddly squat.

Awful winter so far. All the potential and bulling up.........

Back to chasing 7+day charts for a decent cold snowy spell.

Sorry Joggs but if it wasn't,t for those Diddley squat background signals you wouldn't,t have the jet on a nw/se track and you,d be staring mild southwesterlies in the face for the next month

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Always day 10, still waiting for real cold shot, hasn't it been day 10 since late Nov?

Well its was about 5 away on UKMO the other day 😄

I take your point, i'm as frustrated as the next coldie, i am trying to be optimistic, its that or give up!!

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