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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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8 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

The first rule about the MOD thread, there is no MOD thread.....

What happens in the MOD thread STAYS in the MOD thread!!!

New rules since I got burned too - aarrgghh!!!!😭😁

It has been a bit like fight club in the mod thread lately:vava:

 

2 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

We've been hearing about background noise since November now. It's just that; background noise.

We've also seen 'decent' charts (from a cold perspective) which have not come to anything. Hope springs eternal - actually, I'd rather Spring springs eternal! 

Snow around Christmas turned into a white new year which turned into snow for early January, then mid-January, hold on, no it was always going to be the 20th onwards, scratch that, the first week of Feb is where it's at. We will end up with a five-minute hail shower in April:oops:

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6 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

We've been hearing about background noise since November now. It's just that; background noise.

We've also seen 'decent' charts (from a cold perspective) which have not come to anything. Hope springs eternal - actually, I'd rather Spring springs eternal! 

All of which, apart from the new German model, have been consistently signposting a 'back-loaded' winter - late January, February and March. The 'noise' has mostly come in the form of 'BOOM' posts in the MOD thread. My own included!:hi:😁

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8 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

We've been hearing about background noise since November now. It's just that; background noise.

We've also seen 'decent' charts (from a cold perspective) which have not come to anything. Hope springs eternal - actually, I'd rather Spring springs eternal! 

  I must say I totally agree with you easton lunar boy well said 

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'Decent charts' = 'cherry-picked charts' and ignore everything else, because anything that doesn't show a snowmaggedon scenario simply could not verify..........could it? 😋

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It's true long range models were actually going for a back-loaded winter and the temperatures have just started going below average and I wouldn't be surprised if they remain so and possibly much colder than average at times for the rest of the winter season. Seeing as the last 2 major cold spells were in March (2018, 2013) I have moved spring to April now because we still have a good chance of getting snow. They say a White Easter is actually more likely than a White Christmas in the UK. Just annoying though as once you pass mid-February, snow melt starts becoming a problem. We need some cold soon if we want get the most out of it!!!

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21 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  I must say I totally agree with you easton lunar boy well said 

Yes  it’s being delayed - but that’s not to say that it won’t end up being an epic winter, still time on our side, and all the signals give hope, it’s obviously not definite, but we have a chance, that’s enough and more than we usually get. 

Consolation, every day that passes is closer to spring, and spring is great.

Edited by Bazray
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3 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

'Decent charts' = 'cherry-picked charts' and ignore everything else, because anything that doesn't show a snowmaggedon scenario simply could not verify..........could it? 😋

I’m guessing that when snowmaggedon strikes you have a dance🤣🤣🕺🕺🕺🕺🕺

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Quite a bit different on the ICON by 114

12z/06z

3EC464BA-BA18-4C4F-83A7-83B458C4277F.thumb.png.e84a9154da146f3bf7ee0e43dd715d25.pngA080629D-812A-4425-864C-D0217B604E3B.thumb.png.3d3a930c2087e6102b9c3776f7b0dda4.png

Edited by karlos1983
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2 hours ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

If at altitude yes i agree, I believe for the rest of us it will be vile cold rain! Much like Friday turned out to be... 😔

No cold rain for me 

 

3DF55474-2FC4-4E25-8037-670E79C09F0E.jpeg

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Another positive aspect is that Gfs historically has good verification even in FI when the Azores high is reaching the heights of UK. That said, we need the small horizontal ridge of it eastwards as an initial block to the cold pool in NE. Impressively Gfs spotted first at 300h almost all latest beasts of cold into the southeast Europe(Balkans, Greece, Turkey) with slight corrections west or east. 

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The serious model thread is more suited for the armchair "experts" and this one for the armchair "critics". 

Both are helping me understand the models output. The later more easily than the former.

Many thanks to all contributors. 👍

 

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Well the ICON is just a bit different at day 6 or so

E100C170-46E4-4016-80F6-4590628024E9.png

37FB1A09-3EE7-4AAD-8C10-189E126A0C02.png

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Quite a bit different on the ICON by 114

12z/06z

3EC464BA-BA18-4C4F-83A7-83B458C4277F.thumb.png.e84a9154da146f3bf7ee0e43dd715d25.pngA080629D-812A-4425-864C-D0217B604E3B.thumb.png.3d3a930c2087e6102b9c3776f7b0dda4.png

Indeed, it seems to have picked up a new signal.  Looks more like the GFS from this morning now at 144.

ICON image.thumb.png.7a0f1d338fc1c2b9bd7fdfb969e51aca.png GFS image.thumb.png.c7f2c2fd1cdc7e43385367669aaec42c.png

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3 hours ago, Number 23 said:

Second bite seems the form horse now.

I do agree with what an earlier poster mentioned, in that I'm more convinced that the second attempt will verify in some meaningful way. 

Anything after 4th of Feb is fine by me, as my son is due to be born today, and after last week's runs I had visions of sliding into the hospital sideways rather than driving.

Would be great to see a spell like '91 at around the same time, which remains my fondest memory of severe winter conditions. 

Wishing u well for your son. Maybe it will be winter wonderland when your son is born. I was born dec 78 and by all accounts it was an absolute stonker for snow that winter. here's hoping we can see something close'ish to that

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So is this an improvement on the Icon?

Edited by P-M

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Day 7 on the ICON brings a northerly. It's been showing so many options, it's bound to get something right!
image.thumb.png.4e4fc97a0f75e41ad3580cb1881ba052.png image.thumb.png.f7d6fe31df0ad8e9f92dc34041110974.png

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Icon just continues the theme of fleeting cold shots inbetween milder spells as low pressure goes around the azores high then drops south in to europe. Without any proper arctic, Greenland or Scandy highs any cold will be short lived.

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1 hour ago, kar999 said:

With a cold NWesterly, the Cheshire Gap has often given the Midlands some productive streamers that appear out of nowhere. 

Aye, supports snow for a time, less cold air arrives though Wed 3am, anything after then rain, going by GFS 06Z, any lying snow to thaw very quickly at low levels with rain, Wed am

hgt500-1000.pnghgt500-1000.png

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Whilst I actually quite like the new format of the model threads, I feel it may not last...in winter, there is only one roller coaster, you are either on it or you are not, and when things get interesting again it will find its home in one thread or the other, not both!  I don't think the discussion can be bifurcated...there have been several attempts to try and none have worked.

Anyway, ICON out now, we end up quite cold without it having to put in any effort wrt high lat blocks...T180:

image.thumb.jpg.ec081819e343b1acd1c242fca9d1aa94.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.461466189cbbf37ba54bc8117fef112c.jpg

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5 minutes ago, P-M said:

So is this an improvement on the Icon?

Indeed looks that way, baby steps is all we need :)

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Just like to make a couple of comments regarding the roller coaster ride that the last couple of months have been.  I come from an IT background of over 35 years, my observations of certainly December and January is that the the computer models are struggling to manage input data, wind speed, temperature, pressure, etc.  Data being collected and input into the meteorological super computers is changing in quite radical ways from day to day.  This is predominantly because of the conditions in the stratosphere over the polar region, the split vortex and SSW etc.

The computer models, taking current data are having problems providing any coherent model output further than 96 hours

The meltdown on Friday was quite probably a result of disparity of data collected and processed over the previous 2 - 3 days.

I am of the opinion that under the present very mobile conditions, especially over the polar region any attempt to provide any sort of accurate model output beyond the 96 hour time frame is unproductive, and conversely be prepared for unexpected changes to a colder model at quite short time frames.

Edited by CuriousOAP
Errot
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7 minutes ago, CuriousOAP said:

Just like to make a couple of comments regarding the roller coaster ride that the last couple of months have been.  I come from an IT background of over 35 years, my observations of certainly December and January is that the the computer models are struggling to manage input data, wind speed, temperature, pressure, etc.  Data being collected and input into the meteorological super computers is changing in quite radical ways from day to day.  This is predominantly because of the conditions in the stratosphere over the polar region, the split vortex and SSW etc.

The computer models, taking current data are having problems providing any coherent model output further than 96 hours

The meltdown on Friday was quite probably a result of disparity of data collected and processed over the previous 2 - 3 days.

I am of the opinion that under the present very mobile conditions, especially over the polar region any attempt to provide any sort of accurate model output beyond the 96 hour time frame is unproductive, and conversely be prepared for unexpected changes to a colder model at quite short time frames.

GIGO 😁

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