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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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13 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

 

this has been a very typical 1990s winter with the uk high pressure dominated and mild 

I keep seeing this, but my recollection is that the 2000s were worse than the 1990s, until we reached the end of the 2000s at least.

Down south the 1990s were far better for cold and snow: Feb 1991, 1994, Jan/Feb 1996 immediately spring to mind and in Nottingham Dec 1996 and Dec 1997 brought some good falls of snow.

The period from Jan 2001 to Dec 2009 brought nothing but very transient falls for the south. That was when the term "large teapot" came to the fore!

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1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Problem is the main ban of precipitation will have cleared most areas by then, this is good in terms of chances of snow showers settling though

Well this is 7am... timing crucial.

gens-0-2-54.png

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234 GFS has more than a passing resemblance to the ECM at 240.... like it.

GFS image.thumb.png.f03865c299f00b5593ea0c23cf398882.png ECM image.thumb.png.2c49aac10aa749f0174fe683e5acb28b.png

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Good output this morning compared to yesterday. And great run so far in the 6z, here T222:

image.thumb.jpg.1764f7cf78f2d84bc93cc97fdfc0d130.jpg

If, and it is not certain yet, next weeks easterly is over, no matter, the background signals and SSW downwelling are still there and will make themselves felt, as in this run.

When do you think we'll firm up on the prospect for next weeks easterly?

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2 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

image.thumb.png.48839a4c3c6282bf313a9ae1ba31efed.png

How can you possibly have 100% agreement on an evolution 264 hours away, especially in the current atmospheric volatility we are experiencing?

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's the one, Yozzer. It's main attraction is called The Beast, which is always expected tomorrow!

Thankfully nobody mentioned a ruddy roller-coaster! 🎢

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Here is the GEFS MJO plot for balance. Barely gets into phase 6 before falling back. Of course, it is only the GEFS extended range, so nothing set in stone there, and a weakening phase 6 is far better than a strengthening phase 4 that we are currently seeing!

 

Screenshot_2019-01-20-10-37-42-550_com.android.browser.png

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Just now, Stuie W said:

Well this is 7am... timing crucial.

gens-0-2-54.png

 My bad, I was looking at it from an IMBY perspective lol. Does look good for your location though so you are right in what you say

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Momentum building.. literally last few days in Jan...

From my perspective this one HAS to come off !

Greeny high amyone?

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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

234 GFS has more than a passing resemblance to the ECM at 240.... like it.

GFS image.thumb.png.f03865c299f00b5593ea0c23cf398882.png ECM image.thumb.png.2c49aac10aa749f0174fe683e5acb28b.png

Both with high pressure to our north west, bang on when the seasonal models had this developing. Interesting.

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Here it comes 🥶

4E195B1E-1364-40F3-ABE7-2BAA7841D7D7.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

 My bad, I was looking at it from an IMBY perspective lol. Does look good for your location though so you are right in what you say

No worries mate, doing the same thing lol (IMBY) but still a chunk away from me.

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Momentum building.. literally last few days in Jan...

From my perspective this one HAS to come off !

Greeny high amyone?

Not on gfs 6z Nw

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Just now, MattStoke said:

Both with high pressure to our north west, bang on when the seasonal models had this developing. Interesting.

Exactly, adding to this Lorenzo's post things are looking very positive

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The 264hrs charts looks VERY close to the ECM ensembles clusters showing the Azores High ridging towards Iceland and a upper high nosing down from the arctic. Doesn't yet look super sustainable but this would basically a brucie bonus before the set-up gets even more conducive for the first week of Feb and if we are lucky the two set-ups could well entwine.

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

Not on gfs 6z Nw

Looks a great run 🙂

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3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

When do you think we'll firm up on the prospect for next weeks easterly?

I think it's about a 10% shot now, so should probably either be ruled out by the 12z runs, or ruled in tomorrow.  The latter unlikely though.  

I think the Greenland high option is becoming clearer as the way forward.

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Looks a great run 🙂

Yes I agree.just not via greenland.maybe easterly later

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Well it always looks great post t200.    Cant get too excited aboput anything post t72.  Seen it all go pear shaped too many times lol

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Looks good to me, looks like where about to become locked in a sustained cold pattern. Snow chances could pop up from just about anywhere!

 

GFSOPEU06_300_2.png

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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Here we go again - Groundhog Day

The Day Tenners are getting excited again

See you next Sunday for some more Day 10 BOOOOOOM Charts 

If its at T72 Next weekend then the majority might be interested

Some sick buggers programming these models.

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Momentum building.. literally last few days in Jan...

From my perspective this one HAS to come off !

Greeny high amyone?

No I haven't got another chase in me, the mods can't get it right at t96 so why an earth would they nail it from 240hrs? 

The downwell has flopped at the end of the day we all know it can happen but just have a feeling it's one of the years, 

As for next week it's not really a cold spell let's be honest, having to go high on a hill in January to find snow doesn't tick my box and definitely doesn't class as a cold spell!

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