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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Feeling very confident that I and other north western areas will see snow on Tuesday, but also some areas further south and east. Not from the front coming through, although some brief back edge is possible, but from showers following.

The air will be more than cold enough by then; circa -7 uppers, dew points around 0 and falling below by evening, 522 dam.

North Westerlies are very good for snow here (Cheshire Gap streamer) but there will also be troughs in the flow that will increase the shower risk more widely, but particularly across England and Wales. Although towards the south east these will probably be fewer and further between.

Check out the troughs (black lines) and position of the 528 dam line (dotted line) on the fax charts.

7CE25A1F-64DA-4984-9CBD-C007630BCA6E.jpeg

5B086C3F-EA16-404B-87B9-4E6AFDC60EBA.jpeg

Also check out the GFS precipitation charts for Tuesday. These are low res and so can make showers and snow look more extensive than is actually the case, however, I find that the GFS is better than most models for picking up streamers and showers.

C31677DA-B093-4AD7-A89D-D4CFCD9CE0A4.jpeg

Edited by MattStoke
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59 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Signal for solidly neg AO as we approach month end growing stronger by the run ......... the ops pushing that Alaskan ridge into the pole by day 10 .... all grist to the mill ......

If anything the signal seems to be moving closer and closer to the time frame. I still feel it's been a bit too progressive though but obviously I'll take it.

With regards the diving troughs feom the North West, steal a dice roll as to whether or not we have a good cold pool in place, nits in the cold air out could be a risk but far too early to say.

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Alice was told that there wasn't much Jam left in the Jam Jar, and when she wanted her Jam today was disappointed to find out this was all that was left..

image.thumb.png.530832b422006b8114834666637562a8.png

Thankfully Alice was patient and found this hiding down the back of the ECM.

image.thumb.png.db90479a3f502b869696954352b2d82a.png

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21 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Would normally not put a one liner on without charts - however given the paywall status of the EC Ens and clusters, all I can say is think - weeklies. Today will be a good day 🙂

The roller coaster is firmly back on the tracks and heading for the winter theme park.

Thanks for that Tony...

Have to say, the unfortunate US storm has delayed, no cancelled our cold chances IMHO..

I'm still going for Greeny height rises late Jan..

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36 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It's still a pretty good chart.  

As you said, it would be better for the low heights to be centred over Italy rather than the Bay of Biscay.

Yes,the thing to consider is for UK snow you need just the perfect setup, Feb March 2018 had that cold trajectory all the way from far east-north east Europe

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13 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Thanks a lot, I'm no expert but that looks pretty good still, right?

6z more progressive in line with some of the better models.

Next window of opportunity from day 8, Of course, there may be wintry surprises this week but nothing disruptive.

 

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9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

believe 

That's probably the word which causes so much trouble. We all want to believe, or most of us.

As they say, seeing is believing, and therein lies the problem. We live on an island cosseted by the Gulf stream, mild seas and prevailing westerlies. It takes a significant synoptic shift to break that triple hex. Most of us will recognise that cold setups beyond T168 invariably downgrade, so we need them to show something really really dramatic to allow for the inevitable decrease in potency. At the moment, the FI charts are really not overly impressive. That may change. Sometimes the models, especially the control, fail to pick up signals and you start to see them emerge in the ensemble permutations instead. That's something to look for here.

I'm wary of this one. I don't want to be. But I am. 

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I quite like this chart because it shows the Det charts in ensemble graph form

mgram_London.thumb.png.1ab15fee537f5e50a9b042366bd4b8eb.png

Agreement starts to diverge at day 2. 

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5 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Alice was told that there wasn't much Jam left in the Jam Jar, and when she wanted her Jam today was disappointed to find out this was all that was left..

image.thumb.png.530832b422006b8114834666637562a8.png

Thankfully Alice was patient and found this hiding down the back of the ECM.

image.thumb.png.db90479a3f502b869696954352b2d82a.png

ALICE?  who the **** is Alice?

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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NetWx-sr high resolution model showing snow for Tuesday. All subject to change (which it will)..

850070686_viewimage(60).thumb.png.d71032e4738a4daa22b03c0bd322675a.png486332278_viewimage(61).thumb.png.ef7cc2b4d1a808ed76995212ba7e7703.png606839904_viewimage(62).thumb.png.b37fa483fdffcee20126ad120d6ec76f.png

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

ALICE?  who the **** Alice?

Alice in snowywondernarnia?

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2 minutes ago, chris78 said:

But does distant memory mean the mouth watering charts are greeted as gospel and anyone who posts a cautionary post gets piled on by the mob?  Maybe better if We do remember them? 

this thread been going along nicely please do not refer to posters as a mob..... the only poor post last night was actually someone negative sniping at a positive post...... 

i think the split of threads now is ideal and people though should realise this is a hunt for cold thread so it will be biased but that bias should never lead to posters disrespecting each other. 

There is far too much emotion shown by many posters though and far too many sweeping statements but i guess thats the nature of the beast at times. 

Looking at the MO comments, the background signals and comments from some great posters it does appear we are entering winter and could have some exciting weather but that does not mean Narnia for all. 

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7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Feeling very confident that I and other north western areas will see snow on Tuesday, but also some areas further south and east. Not from the front coming through, although some brief back edge is possible, but from showers following.

The air will be more than cold enough by then; circa -7 uppers, dew points around 0 and falling below by evening, 522 dam.

North Westerlies are very good for snow here (Cheshire Gap streamer) but there will also be troughs in the flow that will increase the shower risk more widely, but particularly across England and Wales. Although towards the south east these will probably be fewer and further between.

Check out the troughs (black lines) and position of the 528 dam line (dotted line) on the fax charts.

7CE25A1F-64DA-4984-9CBD-C007630BCA6E.jpeg

5B086C3F-EA16-404B-87B9-4E6AFDC60EBA.jpeg

Also check out the GFS precipitation charts for Tuesday. These are low res and so can make showers and snow look more extensive than is actually the case, however, I find that the GFS is better than most models for picking up streamers and showers.

C31677DA-B093-4AD7-A89D-D4CFCD9CE0A4.jpeg

Yes does look positive but trouble with Cheshire gap streamers small arears will see a lot but then others will see very few, you could literally go down the road and catch it whereas nothing at home so to speak 

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2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetWx-sr high resolution model showing snow for Tuesday. All subject to change (which it will)..

850070686_viewimage(60).thumb.png.d71032e4738a4daa22b03c0bd322675a.png486332278_viewimage(61).thumb.png.ef7cc2b4d1a808ed76995212ba7e7703.png606839904_viewimage(62).thumb.png.b37fa483fdffcee20126ad120d6ec76f.png

Yuk!

TBH thats the kind of thing im expected although would be delighted if im wrong 🙂

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Just now, markw2680 said:

Yes does look positive but trouble with Cheshire gap streamers small arears will see a lot but then others will see very few, you could literally go down the road and catch it whereas nothing at home so to speak 

Indeed but troughs in flow should increase the general shower risk more widely. Those under streamers seeing the most snow though, which is normally good for my location! 😃

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it will be interesting  to see what happen when the low come slideing  down the  north sea on the  jan 23

icon-0-84.png

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GFS 6z take on Tuesdays snow, Making a bit more out of it for the South.

7135595_viewimage(63).thumb.png.bf863d7ddfa306b42b19de17aa7e7eeb.png285737455_viewimage(64).thumb.png.1e17867466051b973058eeaa211f54f6.png1899493786_viewimage(65).thumb.png.965b050fd569e473a489546c2a100646.png

I wouldn't take to much notice of them atm NWS 😊

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12 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Alice was told that there wasn't much Jam left in the Jam Jar, and when she wanted her Jam today was disappointed to find out this was all that was left..

image.thumb.png.530832b422006b8114834666637562a8.png

Thankfully Alice was patient and found this hiding down the back of the ECM.

image.thumb.png.db90479a3f502b869696954352b2d82a.png

No doubt we'll only ever be allowed that tomorrow?

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2 minutes ago, tinybill said:

it will be interesting  to see what happen when the low come slideing  down the  north sea on the  jan 23

icon-0-84.png

Being in southeast England my curiosity is hightened!

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1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

GFS 6z take on Tuesdays snow, Making a bit more out of it for the South.

7135595_viewimage(63).thumb.png.bf863d7ddfa306b42b19de17aa7e7eeb.png285737455_viewimage(64).thumb.png.1e17867466051b973058eeaa211f54f6.png1899493786_viewimage(65).thumb.png.965b050fd569e473a489546c2a100646.png

I wouldn't take to much notice of them atm NWS 😊

all i say  it could be interesting  week!

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yuk!

TBH thats the kind of thing im expected although would be delighted if im wrong 🙂

For a greater chance of snow, the front needs to slow down, it's whizzing through far too fast not allowing for the warmer uppers to be mixed out.

At the moment, very little lying snow from that (except in favoured upland parts).

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1 minute ago, JeffC said:

No doubt we'll only ever be allowed that tomorrow?

 

1 minute ago, JeffC said:

No doubt we'll only ever be allowed that tomorrow?

Actually...... the day after tomorrow! 🤣

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Since a little banter is ok, I’m off to NYC tonight and I’m quite relieved not to have missed anything significant whilst away and hopefully be back for real fun and games ❄️

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