Cold hunt - models and chat

[bluearmy]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

I'll post this chart to hopefully calm some nerves

EPS continuing to highlight below average temperatures right out into the extended - Despite a "less cold" blip possibly later next week now looking likely the overall theme and consensus across the models is for temperatures to remain below average with a trough across Europe. The first Easterly may have failed (may not have yet, the spread is so huge there's a possibility it'll come back, ICON seems to think so) but there is already another sinking trough followed by Atlantic height rises showing on the models for days 7-11. 

Fwiw Daniel, I think this cycle of diving troughs will continue and the fi gfs/gfsp are doing a reasonable job showing  the possibilities of what that means for nw Europe .......some security on actual lying snow depends on getting a ridge up to our nw with enough traction to hold for a couple days .....if not, we are reliant on wedges or systems running into the trough at the right angle to deliver and that’s a dice roll.  Excellent prospect for deep snow cover on northern hills as we move forward. 

[nick sussex]

Not a bad start to the day after yesterday mornings let down .

I think we need to put to bed any easterly as that’s not happening and the models are in decent agreement on the way forward upto day 6.

After the low drops se another low to the nw moves east to the north unfortunately at the moment there’s not much trough disruption there so no fireworks at present in terms of that meeting the cold air over the UK.

Then the jet wants to dive se again . Detail wise after that it gets sketchy but if you have a se jet track other possibilities open up .

With the SSW downwelling picking up its probably the wrong time to be taking the outputs past day 6 with much confidence .

Even though we lost those great charts of a few days back I think we’re in a better place for cold and snow this morning than yesterday so I think we’re on the up after yesterday’s downer.

Edited January 20, 2019 by nick sussex

[jarnbu]

Massive double halo around the moon last night.  Something I always see before good cold spell kicks in as per 2009, 2010, 2013.  Always 2 weeks before. 

Not scientific but going for 3rd feb here for the fun and games to start. A rinse and repeat this time before systems line themselves up favourable for us. 

Edited January 20, 2019 by jarnbu

[Johnp]

For my breakfast, I want some of whatever the Navgem crew are taking.

[syed2878]

 morning guys if I remember the beast from the east was picked up by the icon model also the CMA I think It did quite well that’s the Chinese model I believe I still haven’t given up on the incoming cold I will wait till 12 hours runs tomorrow

 I still haven’t given up on the incoming cold I will wait till 12 hours runs tomorrow evening.

[Met4Cast]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Fwiw Daniel, I think this cycle of diving troughs will continue and the fi gfs/gfsp are doing a reasonable job showing  the possibilities of what that means for nw Europe .......some security on actual lying snow depends on getting a ridge up to our nw with enough traction to hold for a couple days .....if not, we are reliant on wedges or systems running into the trough at the right angle to deliver and that’s a dice roll.  Excellent prospect for deep snow cover on northern hills as we move forward. 

I agree - Interestingly despite models fairly keen to relax the Euro trough it does look like any relaxation will be temporary, extended EPS strengthen the signal if anything

[Day 10]

 

34 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The ECM 46 day model isn’t showing HLB until the week of the 28th of January.

 

29 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Depends..

EC46 for the 22nd vs GFS forecast for the 22nd

Broadly the lows/highs are where the EC46 predicted. EC46 doesn't really show any meaningful HLB until the 1st week fo February

 

 

And there's that pattern again from the gfs to match toward months end. All going according to plan in the grand scheme of things. 

 

Edited January 20, 2019 by Day 10

[Johnp]

Just think, this could be Navgem's finest hour.

All those years of mocking, coming bottom of verification stats, people asking why they bother etc.

This time next week when I'm knee deep in snow, I'll raise a glass to the mighty Navgem!

*Wakes up from dream*

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

watching  bbc  weather at  955 pm BBC  news   weather,  even they was not sure reg  the snow they said  it might be  France     the  gfs   has  it as the east coast might  get it  after  that   it goes  a bit Pete  tong  but   its  much better   in f1  after about 216 hr  !!

[jules216]

The anomalies are looking OK on face value long term, the issue I have with the UK cold is, that once the low in Mediterranean becomes isolated, cold is mixed out. We need low pressure anomalies in east-northeast EU, there we see advected high pressure in mornings EPS.  

[bluearmy]

Signal for solidly neg AO as we approach month end growing stronger by the run ......... the ops pushing that Alaskan ridge into the pole by day 10 .... all grist to the mill ......

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, tinybill said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

watching  bbc  weather at  955 pm BBC  news   weather,  even they was not sure reg  the snow they said  it might be  France     the  gfs   has  it as the east coast might  get it  after  that   it goes  a bit Pete  tong  but   its  much better   in f1  after about 216 hr  !!

I love your posts Been on here for years, post snow charts t -plus  ages and call fi f1. Don’t change, it makes me smile every time

Edited January 20, 2019 by That ECM

[sunnijim]

Optimistic this morning that the late January into early February time frame that was touted earlier in the month as the likely changeover period to something more exceptional cold/ snow wise may come to pass after all.

I think what we have seen in recent days is the models reacting a little too quickly to the underlying change ahead.The times this has happened down the years are too numerous to keep count of.

Anything now from the 26th of the month will be subject to upgrades in the coming days with the usual model 'ups and downs' before settling on a concencous on Wednesday 23rd.

Personally I think the 29th will be the day where a freeze proper arrives with snow widespread from the 30th.

' We have lost some of the Stella charts this week but were they really that good?

How many 24hr sets of runs showed anything akin to February last year on the table? I think the majority showed an Easterly of sorts but drawn from SE Europe backing to an Easterly over Southern Scandanavia.

The fear was a more marginal event for some if that had all played out.

Now all possibilities are back on the table,including something exceptional for all of us in terms of snowfall and depth of cold.

[DanDorsetUK]

[Leon1]

A couple weeks back I did the maths in my regional thread based on when we had those cold days at the start of January, I worked out how long it took to arrive verses how long it was forecasted. I then did the same thing with the amazing charts we where seeing in Fl and worked out that the cold should start on the 27th of January. It was obviously a joke at first but now next week's easterlies are off the cards it might actually happen!

[markw2680]

20 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 morning guys if I remember the beast from the east was picked up by the icon model also the CMA I think It did quite well that’s the Chinese model I believe I still haven’t given up on the incoming cold I will wait till 12 hours runs tomorrow

 I still haven’t given up on the incoming cold I will wait till 12 hours runs tomorrow evening.

I said the same thing yesterday but the 12z for today. There’s a slight step in the right direction and I really don’t think it would take much to bring them easterlies in again

[MattStoke]

16 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

 

 

And there's that pattern again from the gfs to match toward months end. All going according to plan in the grand scheme of things. 

 

My only concern is that I have seen so many Greenland highs predicted over the years that have either ended up as a toppler or not developed at all. They didn’t have the strat developments that we have now behind them though.

[markw2680]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I said the same thing yesterday but the 12z for today. There’s a slight step in the right direction and I really don’t think it would take much to bring them easterlies in again

I also think having low pressure to our se may be more important than high pressure linking up at the mo to our north, well in the long run anyway. It’s soooo nice to see low pressure there as it’s normally so hard to achieve 

[IDO]

A rare sight, the T850's mean staying below 0c for the next 16 day (S London)!

This is despite the core cold lobes being unfavourably placed for UK cold shots.

The long wave pattern is for continued shots of systems heading NW to SE from the Canadian lobe into a Euro trough. On the micro scale if we get good phasing between systems aligned with the robust Azores High we could get nascent mini-ridges in the flow. Although the first couple may not get a strong ridge they will push the pattern west as the Azores High core adjusts east to west as pressure equalises. 

With the Pacific Ridge lagged response coming into play and the -AO we need to see some headway towards disruption to the PV lobes. It is quite likely as we head into Feb that the MJO will go quiet and further waves may not be as common. 

So IMO the upcoming period is important to get the jigsaw in place for HLB'ing to get the UK into a cold/snowy setup. With less forcing, we may be relying on a slack setup with wedges in the flow, relatively static, thus maximising our potential for an early wintry pattern.

[snowblizzard]

24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Signal for solidly neg AO as we approach month end growing stronger by the run ......... the ops pushing that Alaskan ridge into the pole by day 10 .... all grist to the mill ......

Yep, it's yet another delay to any real cold but I'm very optimistic that we will soon start seeing some mouth watering charts for early February.

Hopefully, they will verify and UK can experience a notable spell of wintry weather!    

Edited January 20, 2019 by snowblizzard

[mulzy]

26 minutes ago, jules216 said:

The anomalies are looking OK on face value long term, the issue I have with the UK cold is, that once the low in Mediterranean becomes isolated, cold is mixed out. We need low pressure anomalies in east-northeast EU, there we see advected high pressure in mornings EPS.  

It's still a pretty good chart.  

As you said, it would be better for the low heights to be centred over Italy rather than the Bay of Biscay.

[Day 10]

21 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

My only concern is that I have seen so many Greenland highs predicted over the years that have either ended up as a toppler or not developed at all. They didn’t have the strat developments that we have now behind them though.

I think with the solid ec46 outlook, the state of the strat and a few other factors plus the gfs now coming into range and picking up said pattern then it's still looking a solid bet. Yeah, for me we need to look north not east.

The first bite of a cold spell cherry doesn't look like coming off (but was it supposed to anyway), the second one may though. It's a case of when not if for me, then Feb should look rather tasty.

Edited January 20, 2019 by Day 10

[stevofunnelcl]

guys, don't panic, i found the easterly for the coming week !!

for my location:

Thursday 24th - 6pm - wind NE - 9pm - wind ENE - midnight - wind E

then it becomes light and variable for a while, before the South Westerlies arrive next weekend

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

It's still a pretty good chart.  

As you said, it would be better for the low heights to be centred over Italy rather than the Bay of Biscay.

The anomoly is centred bay of Biscay ........ note the discreet mean trough just to our east at that range !!!!!!!! I’d say that’s more significant ..... you could argue that if the anomoly was further east then we would be open to the Atlantic ridge edging too close ......I’m ‘delirious’ with that mean at such a range

Edited January 20, 2019 by bluearmy

[shaky]

Better charts regarding easterly early week from ecm and icon!!then late on in the run if it comes to true we get plenty of snow and cold!!