Cold hunt - models and chat

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Ah ok, got a bit confused then. Was wondering why I could somehow go beyond the time frame of everyone else, it was because I wasn’t. Still not looking as record breaking as it did yesterday though

You do get a bit of natural variation with runs coming out, i have had to use wetter lately as meteo has been slow, but you won't get a GFS out to 204 inside half an hour, sometimes people on here think that the experts and people in the know get them quicker or there are ways to get them quicker but there isn't.

[oliverek7]

2 minutes ago, NL said:

Think you need to go to specsavers mate, that is the 00z

 

Yes I understand, how terribly embarrassing. I only woke up an hour ago, went to bed at midnight so my brain is a bit mashed 

[draztik]

1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Ah ok, got a bit confused then. Was wondering why I could somehow go beyond the time frame of everyone else, it was because I wasn’t. Still not looking as record breaking as it did yesterday though

Oh for heavens sake. Whatever way you look at it, it’s not winter. Record breaking temps or not, it’s likely to be close to 16 or 17C in favoured spots - exceptional considering we were supposed to be in an igloo had we believed the long range models. 

[oliverek7]

Just now, draztik said:

Oh for heavens sake. Whatever way you look at it, it’s not winter. Record breaking temps or not, it’s likely to be close to 16 or 17C in favoured spots - exceptional considering we were supposed to be in an igloo had we believed the long range models. 

I only said it doesn’t look record breaking, I did not say that it would not be very mild

[ANYWEATHER]

GooD morning folks , Ecm at the T+240 has a malfunction and clearly looks impossible for a late winter chart, looks more like a synoptic summer chart, 

 

Edited February 17, 2019 by ANYWEATHER

[oliverek7]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

GooD morning folks , Ecm at the T+240 has a malfunction and clearly looks impossible for a late winter chart, looks more like a synoptic summer chart, 

 

Weather models are getting way too excited about this spring spell!

[draztik]

Just now, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

I only said it doesn’t look record breaking, I did not say that it would not be very mild

These uppers look exceptional. And because it’s late winter and the model is showing mild, expect upgrades

[oliverek7]

4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

GooD morning folks , Ecm at the T+240 has a malfunction and clearly looks impossible for a late winter chart, looks more like a synoptic summer chart, 

 

I hope it’s not actually reality otherwise the apocalypse is nigh. 

[oliverek7]

6 minutes ago, draztik said:

These uppers look exceptional. And because it’s late winter and the model is showing mild, expect upgrades

Well apparently these synoptic charts are impossible for late winter so... I hope they get downgraded or that this was actually a malfunction because gfs doesn’t go so wild like ecm on some of the days next week. Have to wait until this evening to verify and hopefully it won’t be so exceptional because, to be honest I’m a little scared here at the values I’m seeing

Edited February 17, 2019 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[mb018538]

I was thinking - 850s of 15c in February must be record breaking. Even the feb 1998 spell was below 10c....anyone know?

[draztik]

2 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Well apparently these synoptic charts are impossible for late winter so... I hope they get downgraded or that this was actually a malfunction because gfs doesn’t go so wild like ecm on some of the days next week. Have to wait until this evening to verify and hopefully it won’t be so exceptional because, to be honest I’m a little scared here at the values I’m seeing

Scared? What’s going to happen to you? 

[oliverek7]

4 minutes ago, draztik said:

Scared? What’s going to happen to you? 

Just as it’s so exceptional and unusual! I’m not scared like I’m going to die but just at how incredible Mother Nature is! Last year it was exceptional cold, this year it is exceptional warmth at exactly the same time of the year!

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, draztik said:

Scared? What’s going to happen to you? 

I imagine relegation to the focused thread. A fate that doesn't bear thinking about

[oliverek7]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I was thinking - 850s of 15c in February must be record breaking. Even the feb 1998 spell was below 10c....anyone know?

Well someone said that ecm had a malfunction at +240 and went wild with the temperatures as it looks like a summer synoptic to a late winter one and is simply impossible for late February so we will have to wait until the evening to see if this is kept consistent or if this morning’s one was just a blip. Gfs has uppers in the mid single figures for much of next week up to Friday which is the day where it is supposed to be the warmest so I have no idea what is going on!

Edited February 17, 2019 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Nick L]

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[Methuselah]

I wish I'd never made that post about '15-20C uppers wafting up from the Med' , now. It was meant to be a joke!

[Weathizard]

What a stonking summer chart this would be, no doubt we’ll have our huge greenie high in the middle of July

[oliverek7]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

What a stonking summer chart this would be, no doubt we’ll have our huge greenie high in the middle of July

Is this ecm? If it is there was apparently a malfunction that caused this summer like chart as it is impossible for February so we need to wait until the next run this evening for more clarity so don’t get your shorts and suncream out yet!

[oliverek7]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I wish I'd never made that post about '15-20C uppers wafting up from the Med' , now. It was meant to be a joke!

If you have been looking at ecm there was a malfunction because this is clearly impossible in February so we will need to see with the next run later today to verify these apocalyptic Synoptics! I truly hope these aren’t actually real because gfs is not predicting this monstrosity next Friday 

[oliverek7]

This website’s forecast isn’t even going for the record breaker! It is showing 15 on Friday before backing down to about 10-11C before going into single digits by the start of March 

[kold weather]

I think anyone who thinks the record wouldn't fall on the 00z ECM is living in a fallacy...the same fallacy that made people think last Friday was going to be 10-11c because that what the models show. In truth we saw a local 17c.

Regardless this spell is likely to be a historic mild/borderline warm spell for Feb and daily records at least are likely to fall.

I'd guess probably 50-50 chance of the all time record going as well. With 4-5 days at similar if not slighlt warmer upper/thickness and a slightly longer day, we are going to see plenty of chances. The only limiting factor maybe how cold can the nights get.

However the thickness/uppers on the ECM would not be out of place in June...

[Weather-history]

54 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I was thinking - 850s of 15c in February must be record breaking. Even the feb 1998 spell was below 10c....anyone know?

I posted this earlier today on TWO. This from 29th February 1960

[mb018538]

ECM 00z was a big outlier as expected - well above the ensemble boundary.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Sod the big febuary heatwave, I'm still chasing cold, even if that means I'm alone in doing it! Bring on March, just bring it!

[nick sussex]

Amazing weather here if you like sunshine and having a barbecue !

Although it’s pleasantly warm the dew points are low so not a disaster for the ski resorts . Current temp 20c dew point zero so very dry air . Thankfully a lot of snow fell at my closest resort Cauterets before the early spring .

No sign at all of the limpet high clearing off anytime soon . These types of spells aren’t that unusual for February.

I just hope we don’t end up with a rubbish spring when the interesting synoptics that deliver in winter come too late and we end up with a lot of cold rain .