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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Dunstable Snow Enthusiast

Dunstable Snow

Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
Posted
12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Chances of a major cold snap come months end?? About as likely as Newport getting a result against man City!!!

Your comment forced me to look at the score update. Well done so far to Newport ! Having just scooted through the NH view of the 12z GFS to the 4th March I think there is more chance of Fulham avoiding relegation from the Premier League this season than a significant cold snap at month end. Yes things turn a little colder due to a north westerly created by the north western extremity of the GB/Euro high extending up towards Greenland with support from an artic high, but at no time does it look anything exceptional and pressure remains high throughout western and southern mainland Europe, indeed by the end of the run the vortex lobe in eastern Canada is re-establishing and flattening the pattern. Having said this, I would be very surprised if we don't have a cold and snowy period during March/early April. My guess would be mid March onwards !  I really cant see anything significant before then but I very much hope I am wrong!

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted (edited)

Well it’s a funny old game.

just like this funny old winter.

models thinking about it though I feel.

Edited by snowbob
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Gfs 12z operational had an increasingly interesting low res with arctic air flooding south bringing a risk of snow, especially further north with a wintry early march...Beyond next week is up for grabs ..March and to a lesser extent april can still pack a punch if the cold  air source is potent enough!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
14 minutes ago, snowblind said:

It's 0-0 at half-time and they almost scored!

That was my point! You just never know! 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Ecm brings literally record warmth to the south, and a freeze to Greece, my god you just couldn't make it up. 

ECM0-192.gif

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FreezingFog Apprentice

FreezingFog

Posted
  • Location: Waterford Airport
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Waterford Airport
Posted
2 hours ago, E17boy said:

Sadly the downgrades only happen for cold

In summer warm spells constantly get downgraded also unfortunately. 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, FreezingFog said:

In summer warm spells constantly get downgraded also unfortunately. 

So agree with this

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM again looking warm into Friday and through the weekend. BBC long ranger hinted at 18c today....which would tie in with the output we are seeing. Pretty amazing really.

 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted (edited)

EC dream, but 4-5 months too early :wallbash:

ECM1-192.GIF?16-0ECM1-216.GIF?16-0ECM1-240.GIF?16-0

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM again looking warm into Friday and through the weekend. BBC long ranger hinted at 18c today....which would tie in with the output we are seeing. Pretty amazing really.

 

Yep, it ties in very nicely, even into the following week we have ridiculously high temps. And amazingly all the models are standing firm on the 10 day output!! Wouldn't it be bloody lovely if they would act like this during a cold spell.

ECM0-240.gif

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Amazing ECM - record breaking high pressure in terms of intense thickness - Could we reach 70F !!! 

 

Steve, are you confident in any kind of meaningful cold snap or snow opportunities in the next few weeks? 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Cold hunt my ar*e...stunning Ecm 12z..mow the lawn, have a pint in the beer garden and have a BBQ!!

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

216_thickuk.png

240_thickuk.png

240_thick.png

240_mslp850.png

240_mslp500.png

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

Update on the 12z swingometers, nothing exciting really. We can write the rest of February off I think... the swingometers for February 25th look very bland again.

image.thumb.png.d75771ed30d61456fa5cbf91dc315dcc.png

For the start of March a few runs try to build a high to our west. The best being P8 which would put us right back into winter for a brief window of time. The ensembles for this date are generally mild too though.

image.thumb.png.a9dc65f45cb9199ed2d6303a232a9402.pngimage.thumb.png.01adf18e4a5729550f47358b3fcc1a8e.png 

Western North America seems to be the place to go for cold yet again, must be a very cold February over there. Another way to look at it though is that even when global temperatures are high some regions can still get persistent notable cold. It must be our turn sometime soon...

image.thumb.png.bdcfc7e0e043d2839609a6b5bd761e83.png 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The D10 ECM and GFS differ in the way they handle the next HP wave train. The ECM cuts under the Atlantic trough whilst the GFS cuts east through the trough forming a cut-off low:

74933818_gfsnh-0-240(3).thumb.png.1c8da69331af29edf583649959a5472e.png1245706061_ECH1-240(3).thumb.gif.645d7e8600e7d40a045f7972d37f58be.gif

The GFS will flatten the flow whilst ECM props up the UK high. This sequence has repeated twice this winter and both times the GFS route was the solution.

Nice if ECM at D10 was right for a change!

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, Summer Sun said:

Could we get the 1st 20c day during a UK winter next weekend

ECMOPUK12_168_2.thumb.png.34533912af1f528b2570cc5ee54ba9e5.pngECMOPUK12_192_2.thumb.png.e2e2e9b6c3bf120c5e8a54b61ca25efe.png

Would be cool, but a month later 25 degrees?

2 months later 28 degrees?

3 months later 32 degrees?

4-6 months later 36-40 degrees?

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Well that was exciting . Thank heavens high pressure is finally in charge after all that recent wet weather!

The ECM is great if you want an early barbecue but for cold its utterly dire .

The priest is very close to giving out the last rites , coldies implore the doctors not to switch the machine off.

It ends up in court , the tabloids get involved . Save Coldie !  Mobs appear outside the hospital dressed in ear muffs and scarves with a few Santa hats also seen amongst the melee!

Will the machine be switched off or will a last minute court injunction save the day .

 

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Would be cool, but a month later 25 degrees?

2 months later 28 degrees?

3 months later 32 degrees?

4-6 months later 36-40 degrees?

No thanks. Had enough of the heat in India when we lived there from 1980-87 while missing out on some of the best 80s winters! ☹️

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

I’m a lover of heat as much as cold and snow. As we’re now just 12 days away from meteorological Spring, with nothing cold forecast in that time, I’ll happily welcome this early onset of Spring weather. 

March ofcourse can still deliver cold and snow, but for it to be worthwhile it more often than not needs exceptional synoptics, I.e. March 2013 & 2018. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Could we get the 1st 20c day during a UK winter next weekend

ECMOPUK12_168_2.thumb.png.34533912af1f528b2570cc5ee54ba9e5.pngECMOPUK12_192_2.thumb.png.e2e2e9b6c3bf120c5e8a54b61ca25efe.png

R.I.P..winter 2018 / 19...:gathering:

monty_python___dead_parrot_by_stevetheworm.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

As Steve said earlier - rare to get intense thicknesses as shown on the ECM in the middle of winter. If the 12z ecm verified I think we’d be more likely than not to see the first ever winter 20c in the UK. Scary.

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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted

The search for cold is over for me now. Looking forward to the weather picking up and getting a decent spring after last year's non spring. 

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

As Steve said earlier - rare to get intense thicknesses as shown on the ECM in the middle of winter. If the 12z ecm verified I think we’d be more likely than not to see the first ever winter 20c in the UK. Scary.

Oddly enough, as I walked around Ramsgate in the warm sun today, Scary was the word that also came into my mind. Looking at the ECM tonight I'm tempted to put 'very' in front of that word!!

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Oddly enough, as I walked around Ramsgate in the warm sun today, Scary was the word that also came into my mind. Looking at the ECM tonight I'm tempted to put 'very' in front of that word!!

 It was brilliant today and it's happened countless times in February before. The warmest CET temperature happened a staggering 240 years ago and with the recent warming that's has taken place I find that quite a Suprise. Also in 1998 February was amazingly warm around mid month. 

Edited by seabreeze86
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