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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
Just now, karyo said:

Looking promising for Greece!

Time to book a later winter break me thinks

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

To step away from the hunt for cold for a moment, the GEM 12z is just ridiculous for February warmth at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.43aa792579a79dc63599e73bdaebc8eb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.56bf5ec90f5aab036eba0fefa5151690.jpg

But if that happens, given time of year,WAA could result in some colder outlooks into March.  Still fascinating weather prospects including snow possibilities into March.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Somebody needs to tell the boys at GFS to release the pause button on their model, cause trust me this pattern ain't shifting very far or fast!! 

gfs-1-204.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Wow that’ll be approaching 20C in favoured spots!  

Followed by cooler westerlies than possibly a repeat I would imagine?

Cant see the high moving north, and squeezing the cold in from the East myself. I know many here want that to happen but it’s unlikely. The WAA has been upon us all winter.

1F476A1E-2EB2-4A9B-BC81-DDAC25EB3D0A.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
56 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM12z like yesterday, showing transition to Greenland blocking, here T240:

 

image.jpg

Run of the 12z so far, excluding the odd GEFS member.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, karyo said:

Looking promising for Greece!

Yet again!  Should go to Greece for a winter holiday.

Edited by Don
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

FV3 T300

image.thumb.jpg.3dad6aca8e505682d9100f0f774434c7.jpg

This is what I think.  A lovely spell of unseasonal warmth,  will be replaced by a cold blast turn of the month, how potent is very much up for grabs, just because the coldies lost  last time, doesn't mean they will lose  next time!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 T300

image.thumb.jpg.3dad6aca8e505682d9100f0f774434c7.jpg

This is what I think.  A lovely spell of unseasonal warmth,  will be replaced by a cold blast turn of the month, how potent is very much up for grabs, just because the coldies lost  last time, doesn't mean they will lose  next time!

I will second that Mike, I think March may bring us a slight change of scenery!!

gfs-1-384.png

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Badgers01 Seasoned

Badgers01

Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
Posted
1 hour ago, DCee said:

Wow that’ll be approaching 20C in favoured spots!  

Followed by cooler westerlies than possibly a repeat I would imagine?

Cant see the high moving north, and squeezing the cold in from the East myself. I know many here want that to happen but it’s unlikely. The WAA has been upon us all winter.

1F476A1E-2EB2-4A9B-BC81-DDAC25EB3D0A.png

I agree when does a mid level blocking high ever retro gade north ?? Because that is such an unusual thing ...! 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

It’s a shame we can’t get any more trough disruption to the west .

We have a shortwave which ejects east between day 5 and 6 that’s the one that ends up near Norway. But we can’t get any energy heading se .

 

 

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BlackburnChris Enthusiast

BlackburnChris

Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
Posted
15 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

I agree when does a mid level blocking high ever retro gade north ?? Because that is such an unusual thing ...! 

When Low Pressure undercuts it .

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Norrance Maestro

Norrance

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

When Low Pressure undercuts it .

Wouldn’t retrograde be East to West, not South to North as in the original post?

Edited by Norrance
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Tn9 Seasoned

Tn9

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
Posted
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Yea GEM feels very retrograde.... 

Models edge towards something more exciting in the day 9-10 range, but also nice & warm before then..

'be nice and warm before then' (said with enthusiasm or grimace)blimey, i never thought you would say or even think that, but really if you cant beat or change it.  Enjoy it.. I guess

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Hopeless ecm at t168 with cold air to the east and west of the uk, amazing how the Atlantic ocean can get cold uppers, but UK land mass can't!, but UK itself as always stuck in the mild air,. We must be the unluckiest country in the world when it comes to attempting to get cold air over us

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The ECM is better upstream at day 7 than the GFS.

The developing shortwave running into the base of the trough . Should help pull some energy nw by day 8 .

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Badgers01 Seasoned

Badgers01

Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
Posted
6 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Wouldn’t retrograde be East to West, not South to North as in the original post?

I didn’t know retrograde could only mean east to west !? What intrigues me is the movement of the high pressure originating mid levels and becoming a high level block this seems such an unusual occurance ..

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its gone wrong at 192

That was quick!  No post from Steve Murr, then.

Edited by Don
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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

The whole winterhas gone wrong lol still think we will get huge payback from all this mild outlook, eventually, the models won't be showing yet though, snow in march again? Don't rule it out ⛸️

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edinburgh_1992 Community Regular

edinburgh_1992

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
Posted

Wow, what ground temperatures would this produce? Surely record breaking for some areas. I see a bit of +12 up in the north of Scotland, that would be above average even in July!

Will February 2019 go down as one of the mildest in history?

PS. I wouldn't mind being on the Bulgarian black sea coast instead

ECM0-192.gif

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM is seriously warm at day 8 and 9, you’d think somewhere would be around 20c with that kind of set up and uppers of 10c.

Uppers of 10c in February....what the hell is going on?! 

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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is seriously warm at day 8 and 9, you’d think somewhere would be around 20c with that kind of set up and uppers of 10c.

Uppers of 10c in February....what the hell is going on?! 

I was thinking we could get a 20c uppers 12 in South West.

Edited by booferking
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