Cold hunt - models and chat

[booferking]

10 hours ago, Purga said:

Right, that's it I'm taking up another far more exciting hobby than hunting for cold in the UK!

Waiting on MJO signals to verify be like.

[Weathizard]

Perhaps it’s just me but winter doesn’t interest me once we get into March, down south we’ve had a few falls in March but such is the strength of the sun the chances of any snow sticking around is pretty much nil, down on the south coast that’s certainly the case anyway even in the extraordinary spell a year or so ago, I think for us in the far south to have a ‘proper’ winter freeze is now unrealistic. 

I still think the ECM evolution between day 7-10 could bring a final winter surge it’s been consistent in its outlook with very nearly creating cross polar heights, but as some have said after this winters over amplification failures in this time range it’s simply not trustworthy but if you take the day 8 chart from the ECM, if it was early January that would be a potentially exciting chart.

[Summer Sun]

44 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Perhaps last chance saloon looming? ECMWF actually produced -16C in 850hPa for my location next weekend. I wonder had the atmosphere made its mind up and will start to behave like in El Nino. SOI has tanked, MJO now in phase 8, shame it is about 1 month too late, polar stratosphere now cooling and that might hinder now more amplification, that would be an irony when tropics start to cooperate, then arctic strat goes the other way

Here's how it looks on the ens

 

[bluearmy]

So the nwp is nothing like phase 8 analogue !    No change for the winter thus far for the MJO ! 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Here's how it looks on the ens

 

To think a few weeks ago, the end looked similar for my area, now we are struggling to get these charts for snow laden countries.

[jules216]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Here's how it looks on the ens

 

 Yes @Summer Sun  observing a downward trend in last runs where mean is dropping slightly more from -2C now to -6C for those days. there is another cluster that drops down around day 14-15. Perhaps an indicator that through from Scandi is dropping more westwards then originally anticipated. A lot more correction west needs to happen to effect UK, I think there will be another chance of this around day 13-16 mark,firstly we need to prevent the high from sinking. 

[Stonethecrows]

46 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I'm not sure I can ever recall such a convincingly early start to Spring. Yesterday here in Exeter was quite extraordinary: I literally was in shorts and a t-shirt with the windows open. The models continue the theme. However, if you want a straw clutch, the ECMWF does appear to offer the vaguest hint of a more retrogressive Euro high which would introduce south-easterly rather than south-westerly winds:

As the ECM has been rather poor in the long range I'm not holding breath.

So enjoy Spring! It won't last, of that we can be fairly sure. But by the time colder spells return we will be into meteorological Spring proper. That doesn't preclude snow events but, hey, you know the score.

Shorts and t-shirt, slightly over egging it aren't we lol.  Yes it was very pleasant yesterday but still quite cool in the shade. I think most people would agree that mid teens temps is not short weather unless going for a run or something.

[jules216]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To think a few weeks ago, the end looked similar for my area, now we are struggling to get these charts for snow laden countries.

Last bit of snow/compacted ice will go down the drain this weekend, mind you not far from here there is solid 40 to 45 cm of "concrete" from snowfall two weeks ago, the thaw is very slow as we still got to around -8C this week with highs of only 4 to 5C. If ECMWF verifies we can go very low despite the date, almost like last year with SSW, last week of Feb was coldest of the winter, that has been the case recently of a cold spell at the beginning of March sometimes lasting towards Easter.

[mountain shadow]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

So the nwp is nothing like phase 8 analogue !    No change for the winter thus far for the MJO ! 

 

Makes you wonder, what the actual point of it is?

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Shorts and t-shirt, slightly over egging it aren't we lol.  Yes it was very pleasant yesterday but still quite cool in the shade. I think most people would agree that mid teens temps is not short weather unless going for a run or something.

16 degrees possible today according to BBC forecast. That's defo short n t shirts stuff.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

16 degrees possible today according to BBC forecast. That's defo short n t shirts stuff.

Useable weather but make the most of the sun the cloud is gonna roll in in the next 24 hours and could be around for a while

 Only by day 8 do we start to see it clearing in a meaningful way Only for it cloud over again 

Seeing a trend of the atlantic having more of an say and more cloud spilling in

[frosty ground]

Icon has the same issue

[Bristawl Si]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

16 degrees possible today according to BBC forecast. That's defo short n t shirts stuff.

Hoping the sun provides enough drying for lawns; cant believe i'm genuinely thinking of first grass cut of year on 15th Feb

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Hoping the sun provides enough drying for lawns; cant believe i'm genuinely thinking of first grass cut of year on 15th Feb

You can cut the grass at any time of year.

[Bristawl Si]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You can cut the grass at any time of year.

Yeah if u want it to look a mess

[frosty ground]

More amplification but this only allows the atlantic to draw in mild wet weather from the south 

[shaky]

10 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yeah if u want it to look a mess

Yeh last cut is normally around october and the first cut is around april for me!!between those times the bush growth is steady thank god!!

[chris78]

18 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yeah if u want it to look a mess

Depends on the soil.   Bowling greens and good quality football pitches are cut all year, same goes for high and lawns where lots of work has been done to keep it well drained.  When  I was a self employed gardener I had a few customers who wanted the lawn cut all year, provided it wasnt frosty and we werent having a wet winter that was perfectly possible and the lawn looked good all winter. 

[IDO]

32 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Makes you wonder, what the actual point of it is?

The MJO has been active at times in the Pacific, and that is probably why the El Nino has been weaker than anticipated. The problem is the quasi-permanent HP cell in the W Pacific has sent the energy from any forcing east rather than poleward.

It has cursed the UK with an active high-latitude Pacific Jet and the wave train of HP cells circling the NH. That is why we have seen the storms in the US and maybe why the Polar Low hit them recently.

That has meant composites, and that is all they are, means, has been rather unhelpful. It has been clear since the December MJO forecasts, that there has been interference, and why we should not rely on the MJO composites as a guide this winter.  It was always about the SSW downwelling and when that failed our hopes of cold and snow were always going to be on the margins. 

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, jules216 said:

Perhaps last chance saloon looming? ECMWF actually produced -16C in 850hPa for my location next weekend. I wonder had the atmosphere made its mind up and will start to behave like in El Nino. SOI has tanked, MJO now in phase 8, shame it is about 1 month too late, polar stratosphere now cooling and that might hinder now more amplification, that would be an irony when tropics start to cooperate, then arctic strat goes the other way

Unfortunately the MJO is not much good as a composite right now because if you check out the zonal wind anomoly chart i sometimes post you can see that the wave is standing rather than progressing which is why it is circling inside phase 8 on yours.

Instead of progression from 7-8 retogressing ect.. we just have the amplification (in the wrong place).

We may see it edge over time but the wave may need to die (return to the circle) first.

It does suggest this could carry on a while.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Here's how it looks on the ens

 

Been getting really excited about all this talk of - 16 uppers and looking at these ens dipping like a brick in water, to find out its for bloody Slovakia!! You couldn't make it up, I'm gutted!

[frosty ground]

GEFS look a lot more amplified at 192 

[Weathizard]

14 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GEFS look a lot more amplified at 192 

Indeed, looking more ECM like. I have a funny feeling there could be a surprise in the 10-15 day period, that Atlantic trough is really digging south but we’d need a big chunk of luck, which has been scarce this winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

Best GEFS for a while - i will have a 16 please. holy grail of UK winter synoptics.

[IDO]

13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GEFS look a lot more amplified at 192 

Yes, The D10-15 period has been fluid on the GEFS as the model works out the Pacific Wave and how the Atlantic trough disrupts.

No surprise of late it did its normal bias of overdoing the Atlantic and flattening the pattern. However, it is now more active with the cyclonic wave breaking allowing the UK ridge/high to be more robust. 

Should keep the settled weather over the UK longer.

We can see the spread as to the difficulty for the GEFS to handle the upstream meridional flow:

The three hotspots being the Pacific wave and the handling of the pre-D10 Atlantic trough.

Uncertainty there but an opening, maybe...