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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The current momentum on the eps is for the ridge to sink and for the Atlantic to run over the top late week 2 

Shannon Entropy...

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The current momentum on the eps is for the ridge to sink and for the Atlantic to run over the top late week 2 

Looking poor again, then.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted

Felt the warmth of the sun today and have to say it was lovely. Time pretty much up now for cold this winter. March is a spring month to me and as much as I love cold and snow, I don’t want it in March!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Don said:

Looking poor again, then.

Yes, although temperatures trending back towards average at the end of the EPS, but thats probably just as the zonality takes over, not sure there is any sign of a NW - SE jet, probably just W - E as opposed to recent episodes of SW - NE and even S to N.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
13 minutes ago, Don said:

That’s just typical, too!  However, could they end up moving towards the operational?

It has happened before numerous times. I'm just trying to be positive. After all, I'm not sure about the ecm, but things like shortwaves, which is what I'm looking at. Are not generally picked up in ensembles, till much later anyway. Guess we will see.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, although temperatures trending back towards average at the end of the EPS, but thats probably just as the zonality takes over, not sure there is and sign of a NW - SE jet, probably just W - E as opposed to recent episodes of SW - NE and even S to N.

Any small positivity that has cropped up this week has quickly been flattened!

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icykev Aficionado

icykev

Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
Posted
24 minutes ago, Don said:

Looking poor again, then.

Before we go down that path yet again, TWO weeks of winter left. Give it a chance to finish before we condemn it. 

Winter is still here. Roaring north easterly from narnia please. Hunting. 372135504_event_2016-11_lionwitchwardrobe-460x660.thumb.png.52db2324fc895d699863b63bbb397537.png

 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
26 minutes ago, Don said:

Looking poor again, then.

 

28 minutes ago, Purga said:

Shannon Entropy...

The 00z suite was already dropping the latitude of the ridge .......the 12z has merely continued the trend 

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted (edited)

I have to say it, today was like a glorious spring day, and a pleasure to be working outside in it! 

I cant wait now for Spring and the sun getting to work on hopefully delivering some convective setups! And getting out and making the best of some good weather. I hope we have a summer like the last one, although I think we will be hard pushed. 

Some absolutely balmy charts showing. I cannot say I’ve ever seen 20c modelled during February. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
11 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I have to say it, today was like a glorious spring day, and a pleasure to be working outside in it! 

I cant wait now for Spring and the sun getting to work on hopefully delivering some convective setups! And getting out and making the best of some good weather. I hope we have a summer like the last one, although I think we will be hard pushed. 

Yeh that sounds about right!! 3 sunny days followed by a thundery breakdown. Yeh roll on spring in about 5 weeks time! Much more water to flow under the bridge between now and then.In the meantime heres a nice shot of spring courtesy of cfs

cfs-2-414.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 - Gutted.

Gutted!??? Its been a disaster all winter, why stress over it now. 

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icykev Aficionado

icykev

Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
Posted
Just now, Don said:

Oh dear......  There’s always next year!

Screenshot_2019-02-14-22-00-50-1.thumb.png.64d36a30cefcd1e76e1802a9a7243bd9.png

Is this just astronomical or 4 real

Screenshot_2019-02-14-22-00-50-1.png

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
Just now, Mattwolves said:

Gutted!??? Its been a disaster all winter, why stress over it now. 

Cos it’s bound to be correct now the outlook is mild!

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be honest if the ridge is going to collapse, i would rather it just does it and get on with it, so at least we might get a shot of something 2nd week of March, if its just sitting there and eating up time and not gaining enough positional advantage.

Evening 

Yep I agree I hope the Atlantic just come’s blasting through and give us a spell of zonal ( this mild sunny weather is boring ) . A change in pattern to zonal may give us a cold shot down the line . I really hope and prey that high pressure doesn’t rule the rost this summer , I won’t be able to take another summer like last year . A nice cool damp summer with a few nicer days thrown in would be perfect. 

Edited by ICE COLD
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Gutted!??? Its been a disaster all winter, why stress over it now. 

Exactly, that horse bolted long ago..I'm not concerned at all..I'm sure there will be further cold / snow opportunities during the next few months!

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

I'm going to give myself a break from model watching for a few days, as I'm not expecting much change in the outlook, changes that may occur won't come into semi-reliable for a good few days yet - and I suspect this thread will just be full of very frustrated posts in the days ahead - however, I've seen enough to suggest there are signals for cold as we start Spring.. any atlantic attack another weak stunted affair. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Exactly, that horse bolted long ago..I'm not concerned at all..I'm sure there will be further cold / snow opportunities during the next few months!

Of course frosty, the EC46 and Glosea have been nothing short of chronic these last 3 months, time to put seasonal models to bed, at least until much more maintenance work is done on them. Loving your optimism as always frosty, but your right, other opportunities will manifest themselves.

sticker_375x360-bg_ffffff.u2.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

Right, that's it I'm taking up another far more exciting hobby than hunting for cold in the UK!

image.thumb.png.5f2f0c21f233f444f23cc5878f79da98.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
6 minutes ago, Purga said:

Right, that's it I'm taking up another far more exciting hobby than hunting for cold in the UK!

image.thumb.png.5f2f0c21f233f444f23cc5878f79da98.png

Long range models and forecasts - Do exactly the opposite of what they say on the tin!

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