Cold hunt - models and chat

[karyo]

8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFS is showing the risks of the atlantic getting to close, warm but very very wet

It looks brief though and besides the gardens will need some rain will all that warmth. lol

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

It looks brief though and besides the gardens will need some rain will all that warmth. lol

Indeed get the BBQ's out

Then the sledges (if it follows on)

It heads east never mind (GAME OVER) 

Edited February 14, 2019 by frosty ground

[feb1991blizzard]

An example of a stonking pattern and an absolute blizzard even for the South is possible yet - even if the MO 30 dayer is correct, it doesn't even go out this far yet.

[kold weather]

GFS 12z suggests 20C would probably happen. Exceptional warmth for the time of year on the GFS for sure, though once again, that has to be on the extreme end of what is possible temperature wise.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Those of ya in North Scotland, frame this and cherish it, the - 8 uppers is about to be breached, as brief as it may be 

Edited February 14, 2019 by Mattwolves

[frosty ground]

 Look how warm Europe is no chance of cold from the east.

3 days later

hopefully no more comments regarding this now.

[oliverek7]

20 hours ago, mother nature rocks said:

So just some quick questions:

1- Was it not the case that the crocus’s/ daffodils/ cherry blossom were out early/ mid feb last year as it was quite mild??

2-Then what happened at the end of that month/ March?? 

3- When on the models did last February’s/ March BFTE start to appear??

4- Surely we can’t second guess what the weather will actually do??

Im not saying anything is going to happen but it’s happened before so why not again just with a different date!!

Regards

MNR

Quite right! That is exactly what I’ve been saying to my mates when they ask about the weather and “oh my god it’s gonna be a heatwave” so glad someone has picked up on this too! There is always going to be high pressure around so if it just moves north into Scandinavia then we should be set! 

[stodge]

Afternoon all

Worth repeating - periods of warmth in February are far from unknown. This one "might" break some records but we'll have to see if the SSE'ly flow delivers next week.

This is however the Hunt for Cold thread - NOT the Hunt for Cold in Winter thread - and while it's probably correct to say there's little prospect of anything cold before the end of February (and therefore the end of winter as many reckon it) it's certainly NOT the end of the road for cold conditions.

I've experienced 21C in March as recently as 2017 and yet last year it was very different. That's March - often a month of contrasts and in four of the last ten years I've seen lying snow in lowland East London.

So, snow can lay in March in London and further north and higher up through April as well so the Hunt very much goes on.

The current pattern with the deep mid-Atlantic trough is far from helpful and none of the models are offering anything for cold fans as we go into the first days of March but there's a lot of time for things to change.

That doesn't mean the next change will favour cold - it's more likely we'll see a return to a more mobile pattern - but that's the thing, there's always another change down the road.

[oliverek7]

11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFS 12z suggests 20C would probably happen. Exceptional warmth for the time of year on the GFS for sure, though once again, that has to be on the extreme end of what is possible temperature wise.

Where on earth are you getting these record breaking temperatures from? I’m looking through all the weather models and haven’t seen anything close to 20! I’m only seeing maximum 14-15C

[Walsall Wood Snow]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

An example of a stonking pattern and an absolute blizzard even for the South is possible yet - even if the MO 30 dayer is correct, it doesn't even go out this far yet.

Maybe we'll get a blizzard on Brexit day then, not that that's even guaranteed 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Cold on both flanks, but I would say that towards the east looks a bit more pronounced than earlier runs. Wouldn't it be great if we could just see a battleground scenario shape up for the end of the month. 

[oliverek7]

1 minute ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Maybe we'll get a blizzard on Brexit day then, not that that's even guaranteed 

Wow imagine that! Would be the greatest day in British history! Blizzard brexit!

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Where on earth are you getting these record breaking temperatures from? I’m looking through all the weather models and haven’t seen anything close to 20! I’m only seeing maximum 14-15C

Well it is just the GFS but the 12z has a high resolution max of 19c, which would easily cross the 20c mark locally.

Of course, as I said I think that is extreme and it could easily get downgraded closer to the time...

However I remember similar comments when it was suggested that 15-17c was possible for the end of this week back on Sun/Mon and many were saying "well that's not what is being shown"...but got to 15c today...despite models suggesting 10-12c was the highest likely temperature.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

The high pressure doesn't manage to ridge as far north on the 12z ICON so we get a subtropical southwesterly instead of the continental southeasterly. This can have a big effect on the temperatures due to warmer nights.

definitely, then days will feel warmer too, very cold this morning here, due to clear skies, SW breeze though would be double digits due to cloud

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Wow imagine that! Would be the greatest day in British history! Blizzard brexit!

Given London flooded on the day of the referendum, it’s almost meant to be lol!

[Guest]

44 minutes ago, igloo said:

t shirt weaher for the next fortnight wait till next week could even reach 18c i wonder if we will get this weather in june ?????? 

Could well reach that! Last day before low res kicks in suggests some very mild air. New records? The GFS runs look very plausible and won’t be far off imo.

The hunt for cold is in March, which is a shame. But my guess is a cool (at times) HP with a few frosts leading to an average Spring kind of setup. 

Edited February 14, 2019 by DCee

[MATTWOLVES 3]

21 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Where on earth are you getting these record breaking temperatures from? I’m looking through all the weather models and haven’t seen anything close to 20! I’m only seeing maximum 14-15C

Really can't believe we are having a discussion about record breaking temps and 20 degrees being surpassed! Last year all the talk was of - 15 uppers now its the other way round. Truelly shocking, I for one am still in the hunt for cold, bugger all this Barby and suncream talk 

Edited February 14, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Don]

24 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well it is just the GFS but the 12z has a high resolution max of 19c, which would easily cross the 20c mark locally.

Of course, as I said I think that is extreme and it could easily get downgraded closer to the time...

However I remember similar comments when it was suggested that 15-17c was possible for the end of this week back on Sun/Mon and many were saying "well that's not what is being shown"...but got to 15c today...despite models suggesting 10-12c was the highest likely temperature.

Wouldn't surprise me if somewhere breaches 20C before month end, although I hope not.  Dare I say it, a horrifying end to winter indeed!  These charts would be fine in April/May but not February!

[feb1991blizzard]

Decent GEFS - huge cold pool building to the East, if it wasn't for the let downs and failures so far, i would be confident wrt March, some nice PV splits on a lot of members, that's a long winded way of basically saying that taking the charts in isolation, there is significant risk of cold and snow in March. If those charts were showing in December next winter for instance, this place would be buzzing.

Edited February 14, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Gowon]

The GEM manages a split vortex in a favourable position going forward..

[Bruegelian]

The thing about saying 'our winters have changed', is I think the human mind is naturally drawn towards those kind of flip of a switch, crossing the rubicon , black & white decisive changes. problem is, I think the reality is much more complex & messy.

Edited February 14, 2019 by Bruegelian

[I remember Atlantic 252]

imagine this in 5 months

[KTtom]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

imagine this in 5 months

I think you'll find the pattern about 1000 miles further east!

Edited February 14, 2019 by KTtom

[chris55]

I’m spotting a little change in the euros tonight... 

Details regarding short waves/wedges etc will only be spotted in the mid range (96-144) we are now entering that timescale moving into next week with the Atlantic trough stalling against the Uk/euro high. Both EC and UKMO put up a wedge of high pressure around Iceland, that wedge is allowing those colder 850s to move around and eventually down into Europe (on this run). It a long shot but i could potentially see this area influencing the pattern overall, for a colder set up evolving than is being shown. 

One to watch IMO

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

imagine this in 5 months

Imagine it a week or so afterwards if that verified!!!

Edited February 14, 2019 by feb1991blizzard