Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Northumberland Pennines
  • Location: Northumberland Pennines
1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

What has gone wrong with this winter?  Only a weak El Nino, approaching or at solar minimum, and the only background signal that has not been good for cold this winter is that a westerly QBO began in late 2018.  That said winter 2008-09 was reasonable even though the QBO was westerly that year. 

In the mild winters in the middle of this decade; 2013-14 was close to a solar max with a westerly QBO, 2015-16 was in a westerly QBO with a strong El Nino, 2016-17 had a westerly QBO but solar activity was not as low that year as it has been this winter.

With a weak El Nino and approaching solar minimum one would have thought that the prospects of decent cold spells this winter were good, and yet we are very likely yet again to end up with another milder than average winter punctuated by only a modest colder spell in the second half of January.  Looking at the way winter 2018-19 has panned out with the background signals as they have been, one must ask now if the UK winters have becomes poorer still for cold prospects since 2013, and question if even winter 2017-18 is the modern version of the likes of 2009-10, and even a winter like this, or a spell like Dec 2010, or even the relatively cold 2012-13 winter is no longer possible.

Take a look at the severity of cold across a large part of the US and Canada this winter - in some cases, record breaking. One could equally argue the background signals delivered cold big time for them. It's important not to make generalisations based on the very tiny area of the globe that these island inhabit.

Edited by Lunar Tick
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

What has gone wrong with this winter?  Only a weak El Nino, approaching or at solar minimum, and the only background signal that has not been good for cold this winter is that a westerly QBO began in late 2018.  That said winter 2008-09 was reasonable even though the QBO was westerly that year. 

In the mild winters in the middle of this decade; 2013-14 was close to a solar max with a westerly QBO, 2015-16 was in a westerly QBO with a strong El Nino, 2016-17 had a westerly QBO but solar activity was not as low that year as it has been this winter.

With a weak El Nino and approaching solar minimum one would have thought that the prospects of decent cold spells this winter were good, and yet we are very likely yet again to end up with another milder than average winter punctuated by only a modest colder spell in the second half of January.  Looking at the way winter 2018-19 has panned out with the background signals as they have been, one must ask now if the UK winters have becomes poorer still for cold prospects since 2013, and question if even winter 2017-18 is the modern version of the likes of 2009-10, and even a winter like this, or a spell like Dec 2010, or even the relatively cold 2012-13 winter is no longer possible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, Lunar Tick said:

Take a look at the severity of cold across a large part of the US and Canada this winter - in some cases, record breaking. One could equally argue the background signals delivered cold big time for them. It's important not to make generalisations based on the very tiny area of the globe that these island inhabit.

It is quite easy for those areas to get severe cold even without the background signals. They have a large landmass and a huge mountain range in the west. It doesn't take much for the jet to plunge south and give the a cold outbreak. By contrast with have an ocean to our west with nothing to block the westerlies/southwesterlies. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Not really - that brutal cold spell of a few days aside, the USA by their standards has been largely disappointing too for coldies. Just been one of those winters....immense promise shown for probably 6 weeks from the end of December to mid February....yet nothing really delivering. Shame.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
37 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

If you look in the thread that S Murr did with his very detailed but sadly a bit a miss winter forecast , there is some chat around November time with people saying Spanish meto going for warmer than average ....

Cheers. Thought i'd read a reference to it back in November. And confirmed by Gavin (SS). 

And i see Karyo has referenced it in his post above.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
49 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If you think it's mild this week look at what NEXT weekend could bring!!

3546f815-1b59-4d89-bda3-a1180624a765.thumb.png.8d36bc5d8e41a3d779e4572596b194ac.png529895ce-91a6-4e9b-b93f-713fc6c7ecf4.thumb.png.f69538a4b7e6df19844594cf04288484.png

xl6mxRR.thumb.png.308ead7072885743f95a5b7c846d91fa.png

Cool SS need it cos today isn't mild, mild to me is wet, windy, double digit or close to minimums, like next week

frost and fog last night, lifted now but feels chilly, unlike a wet day would be

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Cool SS need it cos today isn't mild, mild to me is wet, windy, double digit or close to minimums, like next week

frost and fog last night, lifted now but feels chilly, unlike a wet day would be

Yep misty here now, cold wind. Temps under high pressure ate not always right in advance. It depends on ground conditions, and topography as well. I remember a high dominated winter with fog surpressing temps, we developed our own cold pool, in the south east. Then it snowed late in the season in the south east, while Scotland and the nw was very warm.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If you think it's mild this week look at what NEXT weekend could bring!!

3546f815-1b59-4d89-bda3-a1180624a765.thumb.png.8d36bc5d8e41a3d779e4572596b194ac.png529895ce-91a6-4e9b-b93f-713fc6c7ecf4.thumb.png.f69538a4b7e6df19844594cf04288484.png

xl6mxRR.thumb.png.308ead7072885743f95a5b7c846d91fa.png

And those predicted  charts are from the same models that can hardly ever get it right beyond 5 days so why so different now al of a sudden ,I don't buy anything beyond 5 days and never will ,there's a lot of very cold air still to the east by the weekend and if the high pressure shifts to the northwest after the weekend we will see some of that cold coming this way so enjoy this spring weather while it lasts

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Northumberland Pennines
  • Location: Northumberland Pennines
38 minutes ago, karyo said:

It is quite easy for those areas to get severe cold even without the background signals. They have a large landmass and a huge mountain range in the west. It doesn't take much for the jet to plunge south and give the a cold outbreak. By contrast with have an ocean to our west with nothing to block the westerlies/southwesterlies. 

Yes, but it has been unusually cold, even by US standards.  I quote:

"According to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the following cities recorded coldest ever Dec. 23-Jan. 5 stretch: Bangor, Maine, Worcester, Massachusetts, Buffalo, New York, Flint, Michigan, Green Bay, Wisconsin, Duluth, Minnesota, Rockford, Illinois, Waterloo, Iowa, Lincoln, Nebraska.

According to the SERCC, dozens of other cities from the northern Rockies to Texas to the Great Lakes and East Coast had at least a top-five ever coldest two-week stretch ending Jan. 5."

Edited by Lunar Tick
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I am meaning to say that if when we are approaching or at a solar minimum, and only a weak El Nino in place, on top of that an SSW in early January, we still end up with a milder than average winter in 2018-19, punctuated by only a couple of weeks of relatively cold weather.  If you look at winter 2018-19 like this then it would appear that the winter climate of the UK has become in a worse state for cold prospects in the past six years since 2013, and that since then UK winters have notched up into a super warm era as opposed to the warm era which appeared to begin in 1988.  We managed a fairly average winter in 2017-18, with a few cold spells, and then even closer still to a solar minimum and only a weak El Nino we end up with a winter not as cold as last year's close to average winter, so winter 2018-19 clearly shows that something is up and has become worse since 2013.  With a much poorer winter than many expected this year to be, and even what the background signals suggested, it is now starting to look as though a winter like 2017-18 may be the post 2013 baseline for winter cold in the UK.

I think what you are saying is claptrap. But that might be valid at some point in the not so distant future. 

 

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

If you think it's mild this week look at what NEXT weekend could bring!!

3546f815-1b59-4d89-bda3-a1180624a765.thumb.png.8d36bc5d8e41a3d779e4572596b194ac.png529895ce-91a6-4e9b-b93f-713fc6c7ecf4.thumb.png.f69538a4b7e6df19844594cf04288484.png

xl6mxRR.thumb.png.308ead7072885743f95a5b7c846d91fa.png

Brace thyselves? What the heck does that mean? lol

Edited by Optimus Prime
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
9 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

I think what you are saying is claptrap. But that might be valid at some point in the not so distant future. 

 

Brace thyselves? What the heck does that mean? lol

Someone didn’t get a Valentine’s Day Card

why is it claptrap? I think it’s a valid point, despite everything being in favour of cold it still didn’t happen, that’s all they are saying? 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

My god the hunt for cold really has become derailed! May I remind you its the 14th Feb, there is still a large cold pool to our east, and still the chance some of this could be sent our way. Its a bit premature to be talking about record breaking heat and the like at this stage, personally I still think we have hope for another shot or 2 yet, whether it be cold or snow opportunities. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Just a reminder of what this thread is intended for from the top of the page, Again many post belong in the Winter thread..

"Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
31 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Firstly its is widely considered true that there is a lag effect from solar Min and this may have implications for our winters over the next few years. Secondly ENSO, SSW, Solar, are only 3 variables amongst many others. We may search for the causes of this disappointing winter but I doubt we will find the answers!

I said recently that when I joined this forum some considered classic cold spells a thing of the past. Look what happened next we had the incredible cold spells of Dec 2009, 2010. Lets not forget the incredible E,ly last year.

I am as disappointed as everyone else with this winter. However lets not have a knee jerk reaction to it!

If we can still be left with a milder than average winter close to solar minimum and with a weak El Nino and an SSW in early January, something is showing that the sort of classic spells that we had in winter 2009-10, Dec 2010 and those in the mid to late 2012-13 winter may no longer be possible, let alone the classic spells in the mid 1980s and 1978-79.  That said the only answer that I believe is loading the dice away from a colder winter this year has been a westerly QBO (although even 2008-09 was wQBO).  I would although have certainly said that the background signals such as solar activity and QBO were less favourable for cold patterns to develop in years like 2013-14, 15-16 and 16-17 compared to this present winter.

Also I believe that the MJO this winter has just not been playing ball and mostly not been favourable for cold synoptics.  

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
2 hours ago, Lunar Tick said:

Take a look at the severity of cold across a large part of the US and Canada this winter - in some cases, record breaking. One could equally argue the background signals delivered cold big time for them. It's important not to make generalisations based on the very tiny area of the globe that these island inhabit.

Background signals were not good for severe cold across N. America this winter..i think the SSW and the failed El Nino certainly played a role in the flip over here.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The high pressure doesn't manage to ridge as far north on the 12z ICON so we get a subtropical southwesterly instead of the continental southeasterly. This can have a big effect on the temperatures due to warmer nights.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

With all the wrist slashing going on this afternoon and with talk on here by some of such a major climatological shift that we can write off any cold weather in this country forever now . I'd just like to remind everyone that we had a major cold and snowy spell less than 12 months ago. Forget 10 years ago or 6 years ago, less than a year ago we had one. By my reckoning that means we should never have taken it for granted we'd get another one so soon anyway in this part of the world, whether that be now or 200 years ago even.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
2 hours ago, DCee said:

The models are showing some very mild weather forthcoming.

15C here (in the sun) and it feels lovely in the warm sunshine!

t shirt weaher for the next fortnight wait till next week could even reach 18c i wonder if we will get this weather in june ?????? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144 provides a chilly Easterly flow at 144 with -4c air 

But still dry & nice weather generally- just not record breaking -

Such a shame there is no low pressure below it to hold it up in a better position for a colder continental flow, and the jet is riding over the top.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...