Cold hunt - models and chat

[lawrenk]

I’m pleased to say that the hunt for cold has been successful as we had a nice frost here this morning.

The Winter that keeps on giving.

[IDO]

The ECM and GFS mean long wave pattern for D10 showing off the high confidence in the medium term:

A good starting point for thoughts for March.

The ECM op has a wedge of heights develop in the N Pacific. The GEFS has a cluster of about 4 supporting this, the op visited this a couple of days ago but has not returned for the last 8 runs...

...D10 ECM charts, where do I start? Not ruling out, just yet, but not my first choice.

The timing and phasing of the UK high toppling and rebounding around D9 varies between the GFS and ECM op. This is reflected in the GEFS and further runs will resolve that, although likely neither have nailed that yet.

We still look like it will be a push to get cold uppers to the UK as we close the month, London 2m temps:

No sign of an impending cold spell in my region, quite the opposite, relatively mild.

Edited February 14, 2019 by IDO

[Summer Sun]

After a little blip over the weekend high pressure rebuilds next week

UKMO extended is settled for all

[bluearmy]

38 minutes ago, IDO said:

The ECM and GFS mean long wave pattern for D10 showing off the high confidence in the medium term:

A good starting point for thoughts for March.

The ECM op has a wedge of heights develop in the N Pacific. The GEFS has a cluster of about 4 supporting this, the op visited this a couple of days ago but has not returned for the last 8 runs...

...D10 ECM charts, where do I start? Not ruling out, just yet, but not my first choice.

The timing and phasing of the UK high toppling and rebounding around D9 varies between the GFS and ECM op. This is reflected in the GEFS and further runs will resolve that, although likely neither have nailed that yet.

We still look like it will be a push to get cold uppers to the UK as we close the month, London 2m temps:

No sign of an impending cold spell in my region, quite the opposite, relatively mild.

Interesting to see the latitude on our upper ridge lessen from day 15 down to 13 over the past 48 hours (eps). One would expect the opposite.

does this indicate a possible shuffing of momentum re where the upper ridge will eventually establish? Mean heights around Iceland stay similar 

[Methuselah]

I bet it all goes pear - shaped at day ten!

[Frosty.]

How are the background signals looking guys?

 

[johnholmes]

For what it may be worth!

The latest 500 mb anomaly charts and some comments

Thur 14 Feb.

Ec-gfs shows even more rudging Europe northwards and out towards Greenland than above, much more marked trough to its west than above=strong s of w flow into uk; centre of ‘high’ is just e of uk on ec  and touch further e on gfs

Noaa shows similar to other two and centre of c of g of +ve heights over denmark, again with marked s of w flow into uk, origin way west is s of gt lakes (height approx 564 dm/v marked centre of –ve heights at -300

I cannot see how this may develop into a ‘cold’ spell from the e/ne, 3 troughs and 2 ridges is the n’ern hem spacing looking at the noaa chart, not sure what the n’ern hemisphere full chart displays.

To me the major trough looks favourite to ‘win out’ over the 2 week period and beyond although the 8-14 noaa keeps the chart looking pretty much the same as the 6-10 day

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

How are the background signals looking guys?

 

Well the ECM MJO forecasts are much poorer than expected as once again the modelling of the MJO appears to be very poor.

The MJO is now in phase 8 but not expected to reach any great amplitude before moving into phase 1, so i wouldn't be expecting any help there.

 

[snowfish1]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well the ECM MJO forecasts are much poorer than expected as once again the modelling of the MJO appears to be very poor.

The MJO is now in phase 8 but not expected to reach any great amplitude before moving into phase 1, so i wouldn't be expecting any help there.

 

So basically we're screwed 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

So basically we're screwed 

No it's good news, if the background signals are now cr*p it means we have a better chance of some cold in March / April.

[cambs_ry]

Winter is finished, better luck next season. I fancy some warmth anyway.

[snowfish1]

1 minute ago, rynmorgn said:

Winter is finished, better luck next season. I fancy some warmth anyway.

That wouldn't take much mate. I thibk I saw snowfall twice this whole season. I for one can't abide hot clammy conditions so I hope it's not gonna be a scorcher 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

How's it looking!! Well here's how it finishes, I did tend to fall out the chair towards the end due the excitement so may have missed some frames!

[Bristawl Si]

4 minutes ago, rynmorgn said:

Winter is finished, better luck next season. I fancy some warmth anyway.

Yep bring on an early warm Spring, followed by a Med-like Summer

Background signals? Yep they're still there, as always, in the form of the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream

[Wimbledon88]

Hope we have a record breaking mild February now. Will turn out to have been an exceptionally mild winter down here. Well we had one snow shower so can't complain.

Maybe then the experts in Metoffice etc can have a sit down and focus on just how poor their forecasting is and why it hasn't improved in the slightest in the last 10-15 years. Other areas of science have come on in leaps and bounds in that time. Maybe the Beeb were on to something when they dropped them. Mind you most other forecasting agencies were just as rubbish. Background signals indeed! SSW... blah blah blah! 

Maybe if these professionals stopped pontificating about what things will be like in 30years and concentrate on 30 days? 

Beautiful day today mind so as I'm off work today I'm off out to enjoy!

 

[Man With Beard]

Well I have better news than yesterday for coldies. Chances of a -NAO on the clusters are up from 0/51 yesterday to 2/51 today! Even so, they look west based...

For those wanting early spring (maybe there are some in here?!?), prospects continue to look fairly good until the end of the month

[alexisj9]

15 minutes ago, rynmorgn said:

Winter is finished, better luck next season. I fancy some warmth anyway.

As long as we can avoid a foggy chilly high that is. Anywhere in slack flow could be quite cold.

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Hope we have a record breaking mild February now. Will turn out to have been an exceptionally mild winter down here. Well we had one snow shower so can't complain.

Exceptionally mild?...well don't know about that, I could reel off a number of winters since the millennium that has been milder than this but in regards to 'background signals' (yes those words again) coming into this one it has been very disappointing, no doubt!

[summer blizzard]

Another stonking set of model runs for early spring (RIP winter) with the GEM even getting a patch of 10C upper air to the UK (probably won't happen).

6 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Hope we have a record breaking mild February now. Will turn out to have been an exceptionally mild winter down here. Well we had one snow shower so can't complain.

Maybe then the experts in Metoffice etc can have a sit down and focus on just how poor their forecasting is and why it hasn't improved in the slightest in the last 10-15 years. Other areas of science have come on in leaps and bounds in that time. Maybe the Beeb were on to something when they dropped them. Mind you most other forecasting agencies were just as rubbish. Background signals indeed! SSW... blah blah blah! 

Maybe if these professionals stopped pontificating about what things will be like in 30years and concentrate on 30 days? 

Beautiful day today mind so as I'm off work today I'm off out to enjoy!

 

We may have some low hanging maxima fruit to contend with but it's unlikely with such high pressure values that we will be challenging too many records since the sun is still weak and minima should be relatively low (like March 12 we may see maxima averaging 3-4C above, but minima more or less average). If there is something to go after, it may be the warmest second halves of Feb. 

Duration is what interests me, there is a standing Pacific wave (from GFS forecasts) which until it moves may suggest the pattern won't try move much either.

[Lampostwatcher]

5cm lasted one and half days

See you next november

For the chase 

Metoffice said 6c today at 11am

Its 9c 

Useless 

Edited February 14, 2019 by Lampostwatcher

[North-Easterly Blast]

What has gone wrong with this winter?  Only a weak El Nino, approaching or at solar minimum, and the only background signal that has not been good for cold this winter is that a westerly QBO began in late 2018.  That said winter 2008-09 was reasonable even though the QBO was westerly that year. 

In the mild winters in the middle of this decade; 2013-14 was close to a solar max with a westerly QBO, 2015-16 was in a westerly QBO with a strong El Nino, 2016-17 had a westerly QBO but solar activity was not as low that year as it has been this winter.

With a weak El Nino and approaching solar minimum one would have thought that the prospects of decent cold spells this winter were good, and yet we are very likely yet again to end up with another milder than average winter punctuated by only a modest colder spell in the second half of January.  Looking at the way winter 2018-19 has panned out with the background signals as they have been, one must ask now if the UK winters have becomes poorer still for cold prospects since 2013, and question if even winter 2017-18 is the modern version of the likes of 2009-10, and even a winter like this, or a spell like Dec 2010, or even the relatively cold 2012-13 winter is no longer possible.

Edited February 14, 2019 by North-Easterly Blast

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

What has gone wrong with this winter?  Only a weak El Nino, approaching or at solar minimum, and the only background signal that has not been good for cold this winter is that a westerly QBO began in late 2018.  That said winter 2008-09 was reasonable even though the QBO was westerly that year.  With a weak El Nino and approaching solar minimum one would have thought that the prospects of decent cold spells this winter were good, and yet we are very likely yet again to end up with another milder than average winter punctuated by only a modest colder spell in the second half of January.  Looking at the way winter 2018-19 has panned out with the background signals as they have been, one must ask now if the UK winters have becomes poorer still for cold prospects, and question if even winter 2017-18 is the modern version of the likes of 2009-10, and even a winter like this, or a spell like Dec 2010, or even the relatively cold 2012-13 winter is no longer possible.

Perhaps a bit far fetched. In my eyes, the background signals were at least partly correct but unfortunately our Pesky Vortex split into three parts instead of the conventional two, the most efficient portion clinging to eastern Canada, making it that bit more difficult to tap into the proper cold air. I reckon if we'd had a clean split into two or perhaps even no SSW at all, our chances of a more prolonged meaningful cold spell would've been greater. We've just been very unlucky this time!

All eyes on March, which generally being more unsettled than February, may bring us a few late wintry chances but not of the same ilk us cold lovers would like. In the meantime, plenty of early springlike weather on offer - a much better milder spell than the likes we saw in December.

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

How's it looking!! Well here's how it finishes, I did tend to fall out the chair towards the end due the excitement so may have missed some frames!

It looks colder in the atlantic than it does in the uk..you couldn't make it up!!..what a waste of cold air and snow over the atlantic ocean!!!!!!!

[Rascals Revenge]

Background signals?

Its been back door smelly fumes this winter.

[Weather-history]

19 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

What has gone wrong with this winter?  Only a weak El Nino, approaching or at solar minimum, and the only background signal that has not been good for cold this winter is that a westerly QBO began in late 2018.  That said winter 2008-09 was reasonable even though the QBO was westerly that year.  With a weak El Nino and approaching solar minimum one would have thought that the prospects of decent cold spells this winter were good, and yet we are very likely yet again to end up with another milder than average winter punctuated by only a modest colder spell in the second half of January.  Looking at the way winter 2018-19 has panned out with the background signals as they have been, one must ask now if the UK winters have becomes poorer still for cold prospects, and question if even winter 2017-18 is the modern version of the likes of 2009-10, and even a winter like this, or a spell like Dec 2010, or even the relatively cold 2012-13 winter is no longer possible.

I remember posts just like this before 2008-09 and the criteria for cold was 2005-06. Infact 2005-06 was touted as the baseline. Then came 3 winters in the trot colder than 2005-06. 

What I find remarkable about your post is that you question if  2017-18, the modern version of 2009-10? 2009-10 was just under  a decade about! What is your definition of modern? 

How can you question if a spell like 2010 is possible anymore when before 2010, question were asked if we could even get a sub 3 CET? The 31 day run up to Christmas 2010 were the coldest such run up to Christmas for the CET since at least 1772, that was only 9 years ago. Then we had March 2013 to take into consideration. 

If these happened over 40 years ago and nothing happened since then maybe questions could be asked but not when they happened within the last 10 years.

 

Edited February 14, 2019 by Weather-history